Paxos

A slew of technical, fundamental, and on-chain indicators hint at more pain for BNB price in February.

On Feb. 13, Binance's native token, BNB, recorded its worst daily performance since November 2022, falling 8.5% to below $285. BNB price has since recovered to over $298, but its possibility of facing another selloff remains high. Let's take a look at a few reasons why. 

BNB price rising wedge breakdown

The ongoing decline in BNB's price came as a part of a broader rising wedge breakdown.

Notably, on Feb. 9, BNB broke out of its rising wedge pattern, a bearish reversal setup that forms as the price trends upward inside a range defined by two ascending, converging trendlines.

As a rule of technical analysts, a rising wedge's profit target is measured after subtracting the maximum distance between the pattern's upper and lower trendline from the breakdown point.

Therefore, BNB's rising wedge target comes to be near $250, down about 15% from current prices. Interestingly, the $250 level has also served as support in May, September and November 2022.

SEC crackdown on Binance USD

The selloff pressure in the BNB market escalated primarily due to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) crackdown on crypto company Paxos.

The regulator has accused Paxos of issuing and listing Binance USD (BUSD) — a Binance-branded stablecoin — which it deems an unregistered security. Paxos has categorically denied the allegation, noting that it would go to court, if necessary.

But markets have become fearful after this news. For instance, the number of addresses holding between 1,000 and 10 million BUSD dropped dramatically since Feb. 13, dumping over $207 million in stablecoins, based on data from Santiment.

"This is an astounding level of stablecoin dropping, especially while the other three stablecoins (Tether, USD Coin, Dai) have been seeing big holder accumulations," noted Santiment, adding that the ramifications of the SEC lawsuit have been pushing BNB price lower.

"It also is seeing a month-high in trading volume as its price has dropped, meaning there is a higher probability of the plummet potentially continuing."

FUD event?Fishes, whales, sharks dump BNB

From an on-chain perspective, BNB holding sentiment has weakened across all address cohorts, which includes both small (fishes) and large investors (whales and sharks).

Related: Binance and Huobi freeze $1.4M in crypto linked to North Korean hackers

Notably, the number of addresses holding 0.001 to 10 million BNB dropped significantly in January 2023 and has been unable to recover since. This increases the token's possibility of continuing its downtrend in February.

On a brighter note, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 BNB tokens has recovered modestly, indicating some whales have been buying the dip.

Santiment concedes that the ongoing downtrend may not extend in the longer run, saying the SEC crackdown may be "a short-term FUD event."

Excerpts:

"Yes, it's possible that this is one of those instances where people panic and everything returns to normal for Binance by Friday [Feb. 17]."

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.