prediction

Bitcoin is due to double its current all-time high price within two years of the April 2024 halving, the models suggest.

Bitcoin (BTC) is destined to hit $128,000 or more by the end of 2025, multiple analytics models suggest.

Uploading his latest BTC price estimates to X (formerly Twitter) on Oct. 17, popular trader and analyst CryptoCon deduced a two-year target of around $130,000.

Multiple BTC price forecasts converge on $130,000 in 2025

Bitcoin market participants are diverging over how BTC price behavior will respond to next year’s block subsidy halving, but for CryptoCon, the long-term roadmap is looking firmly bullish.

In an update for various models charting both Bitcoin price cycles and their highs and lows, the analyst reiterated that the area around $130,000 was fast becoming a magnet.

“I’ve been doing a lot of Bitcoin cycle top experiments lately, and I keep seeing right around the same price... 130k,” he summarized.

An accompanying chart highlighted so-called “early” tops in each price cycle, along with the actual cycle top constituting a new all-time high.

The early tops, on average, occur three weeks on either side of July 9, CryptoCon explained. The new all-time highs come three weeks on either side of Nov. 28 — already a popular phenomenon that Cointelegraph reported on last month.

The timing for these events comes from plotting simple diagonal trendlines from the first early top.

“Doing this has found the the price of the last two cycle tops exactly, and with our trend from last cycle, gives us a price of about 138k,” the X post continued.

“I am prepared for lower prices, but the stars are aligning at 130k for Bitcoin this cycle!”

Per model timing, 2025 should be the year that the next cycle top occurs, just under twice the current record set in 2021.

“History favors the bears”

Four-year halving cycles, meanwhile, form a guide for many well-known Bitcoin market commentators.

Related: Mining BTC is harder than ever — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Among them is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who continues to stress that the prehalving year 2023 could bring about some new local lows before the bull market attains full force. 

#BTC

5 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving

1. Pre-Halving period

If a deeper retrace is going to occur, it will likely be over the next 140 days or so (orange)

In fact, $BTC retraced -24% in 2015 and -38% in 2019 at this same point in the cycle (i.e. ~200 days before the Halving)… pic.twitter.com/r1dAWBJXyw

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 6, 2023

Previously, he warned that the $32,000 highs seen earlier this year could end up printing a double-top structure, helping fuel a protracted BTC price downturn next. 

“At this same point in the cycle (~180 days before the Halving)… BTC retraced -25% in 2015/2016 and -38% in 2019,” one of his latest X posts reads.

“Only question is: does history repeat? Or does 2023 generate something completely different? I’m a Macro Bull but history favours Bears.” 

Rekt Capital added that any new lows “should be treated as an opportunity for re-accumulation.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin miners and "smart money" are the investor cohorts to watch when it comes to late 2023 BTC price action, says Filbfilb.

Bitcoin (BTC) is “much more likely” to stay rangebound until at least Q4, 2023, according to longtime market participant Filbfilb.

In an X thread on Aug. 25, the popular analyst and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader told readers to expect flat BTC price action into year end.

Filbfilb: BTC price approaching "critical time"

Bitcoin may be disappointing bulls after its 70% Q1 gains, but for Filbfilb, there is little about BTC price action this halving cycle that is different to its previous ones.

“Bitcoin is 1200 days since the previous halving. During this period, Bitcoin has historically consolidated,” he explained.

Uploading various comparative charts, Filbfilb predicted that miners should begin to bid price higher into the Bitcoin halving — with this occurring around 1,276 days after each prior halving.

“Miners are incentivized to ensure that prices are well above marginal cost prior to the halving. Whether they collude consciously, or not they are collectively incentivized to send prices higher before their marginal revenue is effectively halved,” he wrote, also adding that smart money interested in “buying the rumor” around the halving’s potential positive BTC price impact had also buoyed the market in previous years.

1,276 from the 2020 halving gives early November as a potential deadline for such behavior to show itself.

“From a timing perspective Q4 seems like a critical time for BTC where we are likely to see supply constricted and new money driven by speculation,” Filbfilb forecast.

“Until then, it would be unusual for Bitcoin to break up, much more likely to consolidate.”

Macro risk to Bitcoin stays "elephant in the room"

Between now and then, however, various curve balls may lie in wait for Bitcoin, not least of which is United States macroeconomic policy.

Related: Bitcoin could be worth less than $20K in 2023, US inflation data says

The September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will decide benchmark interest rates, is of particular interest to risk asset bulls.

Filbfilb described the macro aspect as being “clearly the elephant in the room.”

“If that can remain steady, then I believe the game theory will play out and Bitcoin will convincingly break $30k before the 2023 year-end,” he wrote.

Should a more bearish scenario enter and Bitcoin return to $20,000, the current 2023 local high of $31,800 may remain in force.

“I would suggest that if that happens and is for anything other than for a very short time period, then the pre-halving pump may only take us to the 2023 highs already seen and breaking it would come later,” he concluded.

As Cointelegraph reported, other analysts are also counting the days between halvings, with varying BTC price predictions coming as a result.

Asset managed Pantera Capital this week delivered a $35,000 target for the next halving and $148,000 for after the 2024 event, while another recent prediction stated that $100,000 would under no circumstances come before it.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.