prediction

BTC price upside ‘yet to come’ at $29K after Bitcoin RSI reset — trader

August 4, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is still preparing for a BTC price "parabolic advance" with a popular metric laying the foundations, says Credible Crypto.

Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet seen the majority of its gains this cycle, one popular trader believes.

In a tweet on Aug. 3, Credible Crypto doubled down on his bullish BTC price thesis.

Credible Crypto: Bitcoin still to see "biggest upside moves"

After over a month of acting within a tight trading range, traders’ patience with Bitcoin is wearing thin.

Amid expectations that BTC price will test levels closer to $25,000 or even lower, Credible Crypto is one of those arguing the opposite.

Analyzing data including Bitcoin market cap dominance and its relative strength index (RSI), he concluded that conditions had been reset.

“Biggest upside moves on BTC are YET TO COME,” he summarized.

“A month of sideways action on BTC and dominance has simply made a higher low. H12 bullish div confirmed, RSI on higher TF looks reset, maintaining above the ‘magic’ 40 RSI level, who's ready for the next leg up?”

*BTC/USD annotated chart with RSI. Source: Credible Crypto/Twitter*

RSI measures the price strength of an asset at a specific price point, and is currently consolidating on daily timeframes after Bitcoin’s July spike to one-year highs failed to sustain.

Credible Crypto meanwhile is known for his optimism when it comes to how Bitcoin will evolve in the coming year and beyond.

As Cointelegraph reported, in June, he predicted that BTC/USD would need only four months to challenge its current all-time highs of $69,000 seen in November 2021.

“I am not saying we MUST hit new all time highs by October, I AM saying I do think we will hit new ATH by the end of this year and if someone forced me to pick a month in which I think this will occur it would be October. Let’s see how things play out," he wrote at the time.

A more recent video update in late July made fresh reference to Bitcoin's upcoming "parabolic advance" to eclipse those highs.

"Early bull market price action, period"

Continuing, fellow trader CryptoCon flagged RSI over longer timeframes to deliver a similarly bullish take on BTC price performance.

“Bitcoin bears and recession callers are relentless just below yearly highs... astounding!” part of a tweet stated on Aug. 3, saying that those bears had “no patience.”

“I see price going sideways, and I've never been more bullish! Just wait until we break into phase 2 on the 3 Week RSI... Early bull market price action, period.”

An accompanying chart showed RSI peaks and troughs over the years, with current conditions reminiscent of a pre-breakout stage.

*Bitcoin RSI phases chart. Source: CryptoCon/Twitter*

Magazine: Experts want to give AI human ‘souls’ so they don’t kill us all

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

AI has potential to send Bitcoin price over $750K — Arthur Hayes

July 7, 2023 Coin Telegraph

AI has potential to send Bitcoin price over 0K — Arthur Hayes

The coming years will be explosive for AI, and even more so for Bitcoin, says the former BitMEX CEO.

Bitcoin (BTC) will be the currency of artificial intelligence (AI) and could reach a price per coin of $760,000 in the process, Arthur Hayes says.

In his latest essay titled “Massa,” the former BitMEX CEO concluded that the AI revolution would naturally gravitate toward BTC.

Hayes: Bitcoin is "logical currency choice for AI"

Despite fiat currency regimes being destined to become evermore dysfunctional in future, Hayes says, there is one burgeoning economic sector which will only go from strength to strength: AI.

While still nascent in 2023, the coming decades will see an explosion of AI-related implementations which will make it ubiquitous and unavoidable.

“Recent advancements in computing power have brought us to the cusp of a hockey stick moment, in which AI will go viral and change the course of humanity virtually overnight,” he wrote.

“In only two months, ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly active users making it the fastest adopted technology in human history – so just imagine how quickly everything is going to change as AIs are integrated into everyday life and continue to learn and improve.”

When it comes to integration, the financial solution on the table first and foremost, Hayes says, will not be a tailor-made, AI-focused altcoin; it will be Bitcoin instead.

The reason, an accompanying theory states, is that AI will view Bitcoin’s inherent qualities — an immutable fixed supply, digital scarcity and its status as “energy money” — as the logical choice.

“An AI is unlikely to allow itself to rely on anything that a human government operates therefore only gold and Bitcoin are suitable. A tie between gold and Bitcoin,” Hayes continued.

“Bitcoin is thus the logical currency choice for any AI. It is purely digital, censorship resistant, provably scarce, and its intrinsic value is completely electricity-cost-dependent. There is nothing in existence today that comes close to challenging Bitcoin on these aspects.”

Another path toward $1 million BTC price

Where would that leave the BTC price?

From around $30,000 today, the real effect of AI should kick in in around three years’ time.

After that, Hayes says, it could be around another decade before the network value boost from AI alone sends BTC/USD to nearly $1 million.

“I believe the peak of deranged growth investing will occur in the 2025 to 2026 timeframe. Therefore, the goal of my predictions regarding the future price of Bitcoin is to form a narrative that takes hold before then,” he explained.

Depending on the scale of that investing, BTC price action could see up to $760,000 per coin.

“Remember – the market will overpay for Bitcoin network growth if it believes there is a possibility that my assumptions could be true in the future,” part of “Massa” concludes.

“The most money is made when the market price adjusts from ‘can never happen’ to ‘maybe could happen.’

*Bitcoin price target calculation (screenshot). Source: Arthur Hayes*

Hayes is well known for his bullish long-term perspective on Bitcoin, recently championing a million-dollar price tag as a function of fiat currency disintegration.

Magazine: Should you ‘orange pill’ children? The case for Bitcoin kids books

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

3 Bitcoin price metrics showing ‘insane’ similarities to 2020 breakout

June 15, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains bullish — and arguably more so than ever — depending on what BTC price metrics are used to assess it.

Bitcoin (BTC) is copying the prelude to its 2020 breakout to an “insane” extent, the co-founders of Glassnode have said.

In a tweet on June 15, Yann Allemann and Jan Happel highlighted three BTC price metrics that are anything but bearish.

Metrics echo Bitcoin’s “major reversals and rallies”

BTC/USD reached local highs of $31,000 in April but, since then, has dipped around 20%. Sentiment has taken a beating in the process, with downward price predictions becoming the norm in the intervening weeks.

While recent events have placed additional pressure on the market, Allemann and Happel see at least three good reasons for optimism.

Several on-chain indicators, they revealed, now look uncannily like they did in Q3 2020, just before BTC/USD beat its old 2017 all-time high of $20,000.

“The resemblance to Sep 04, 2020, is insane…,” they wrote in part of commentary.

Leading the line-up is the classic relative strength index (RSI), which measures how overbought or oversold BTC/USD is at a specific price point.

Daily RSI currently measures 35, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms. This is its lowest reading since early March, just before Bitcoin’s most recent uptick, which resulted in the $31,000 peak a month later.

“RSI is at levels that led to major reversals and rallies,” the post explained.

*BTC/USD 1-day candle chart on Bitstamp with RSI. Source: TradingView*

Continuing, Allemann and Happel flagged the Cipher B readings for Bitcoin, these coming from a collection of algorithms that converge to offer signals of, among other things, when to buy dips during bull markets.

“Cipher b wave trends are at levels that led to major reversals and rallies,” they repeated.

Finally, the appropriately named Bitcoin Risk Signal is back at its Sept. 4, 2020 position. Risk Signal predicts the likelihood of a major BTC price drawdown and, at that time, saw a spike to “high risk” before receding.

What happened next was a flat Risk Signal reading for successive months, while BTC/USD broke higher.

*Bitcoin Risk Signal chart. Source: Glassnode*

Hodlers big and small increase BTC exposure

Elsewhere, Glassnode flagged encouraging signs suggesting investors keeping the faith long term.

For lead on-chain analyst Checkmate, accumulation among existing hodlers remained impressive.

“Pretty doomy out there,” he tweeted about sentiment on June 15.

“Meanwhile, Bitcoin Shrimp, Crabs, and Fish (wallets < 100 $BTC) are adding to their balance at a rate of 248% times the amount freshly minted by miners. Sharks (100 to 1k $BTC) adding an additional 38%. Coins are coming out of exchanges. Halving is ~310 days away.”

Accompanying charts showed so-called “Absorption Rates” for various hodler cohorts by wallet size.

*Bitcoin Absorption Rates charts. Source: Checkmate/Twitter*

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

AI automation could take over 50% of today’s work activity by 2045: McKinsey

June 15, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Adoption

Management consulting firm McKinsey & Co believes AI will have the “biggest impact” on high-wage workers.

In just 22 years, generative AI may be able to fully automate half of all work activity conducted today, including tasks related to decision-making, management, and interfacing with stakeholders, according to a new report from McKinsey & Co.

The prediction came from the management consulting firm report on June 14, forecasting 75% of generative AI value creation will come from customer service operations, marketing and sales, software engineering, as well as research and development positions.

What’s the value and impact of #generativeAI? Companies across countless industries are already experimenting with its applications. Our new research has found that the value at stake is huge–potentially $2.6 to $4.4 trillion in #productivity annually➡ https://t.co/pY5ACuvoL1 pic.twitter.com/ecZ0RvtzHl
— McKinsey & Company (@McKinsey) June 14, 2023

The firm explained that recent developments in generative AI has “accelerated” its “midpoint” prediction by nearly a decade from 2053 — its 2016 estimate — to 2045.

McKinsey explained that its broad range of 2030-2060 was made to encompass a range of outcomes — such as the rate at which generative AI is adopted, investment decisions and regulation, among other factors.

Its previous range for 50% of work being automated was 2035-2070.

*McKinsey’s new predicted “midpoint” time at which automation reaches 50% of time on work-related activities has accelerated by eight years to 2045. Source: McKinsey*

The consulting firm said, however, the pace of adoption across the globe will vary considerably from country to country:

“Automation adoption is likely to be faster in developed economies, where higher wages will make it economically feasible sooner.”

*Early and late scenario midpoint times for the United States, Germany, Japan, France, China, Mexico and India. Source: McKinsey.*

Generative AI systems now have the potential to automate work activities that absorb 60-70% of employees’ time today, McKinsey estimated.

Interestingly, the report estimates generative AI will likely have the “biggest impact” on high-wage workers applying a high degree of “expertise” in the form of decision making, management and interfacing with stakeholders.

What will be the impact of generative AI on work, and how much value could it generate?

Explore the full research: https://t.co/A3GOfAGrHC pic.twitter.com/Qed0DhZsyE
— McKinsey Global Institute (@McKinsey_MGI) June 14, 2023

The report also predicts that the generative AI market will add between $2.6 to $4.4 trillion to the world economy annually and be worth a whopping $15.7 trillion by 2030.

This would provide enormous economic value on top of non-generative AI tools in mainstream use today, the firm said:

“That would add 15 to 40 percent to the $11.0 trillion to $17.7 trillion of economic value that we now estimate nongenerative artificial intelligence and analytics could unlock.”

Generative AI systems are capable of producing text, images, audio and videos in response to prompts by receiving input data and learning its patterns. OpenAI’s ChatGPT is the most commonly used generative AI tool today.

McKinsey’s $15.7 trillion prediction by 2030 is more than a three-fold increase in comparison to its $5 trillion prediction for the Metaverse over the same timeframe.

However, the recent growth of generative AI platforms hasn’t come without concerns.

The United Nations recently highlighted “serious and urgent” concerns about generative AI tools producing fake news and information on June 12.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg received a grilling by United States Senators of a “leaked” release of the firm’s AI tool “LLaMA” which the senators claim to be potentially “dangerous” and be possibly used for “criminal tasks.”

Magazine: AI Eye: ‘Biggest ever’ leap in AI, cool new tools, AIs are the real DAOs

Hyperbitcoinization coming, says Bitcoin OG as ‘wholecoiners’ hit 1 million

May 18, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

1 million Bitcoin wallets now have a balance of 1 BTC or more, but the real magic is yet to come, says Adam Back.

Bitcoin (BTC) has crossed a significant threshold this month — and while it does not involve price, it does involve “millions.”

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that as of May 18, there are over one million addresses which hold at least 1 BTC.

Back: Adoption trend lays path to "hyperbitcoinization"

It was a long time coming and received much attention on social media, and the time is finally here — there are one million entities which own a whole bitcoin.

These “wholecoiners” have been steadily accruing since mid-2021, Glassnode shows, and the upward trend in 1 BTC wallets has seen almost no reversal since.

In 2022, however, the trend accelerated, having started the year with 814,000 wholesalers and finishing it with 978,000 — an increase of 20%.

Reacting, Adam Back, CEO and co-founder of Bitcoin firm Blockstream, made the case for “hyperbitcoinization” soon to come.

Should the existing trend continue, he argued, BTC price growth would soon make buying it not only a luxury, but something unattainable altogether.

This would happen, he tweeted, “because 10mil people trying to buy 1 BTC over a few years would push the price out of reach.”

“And many current hodlers are not selling,” he continued.

“Eg very few of the recent whole coiners would re-sell, probably moving up to their next target for extra bitcoin, most are trying to buy more!”

*Bitcoin: Number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 1 chart. Source: Glassnode*

As Cointelegraph reported, existing Bitcoin investors who are long-term market participants have broadly resisted the urge to sell through the recent bear market and subsequent price recovery.

At the same time, an uptick in short-term holders, or speculators, in 2023 has got some excited about the birth of a new Bitcoin bull market.

Whale numbers halt 2022 decline

Glassnode data meanwhile shows that at the other end of the spectrum, whale wallets have become stagnant.

Entities with between 1,000 BTC and 9,999 BTC are now showing signs of recovery after falling from mid-2022 onward.

10,000+ BTC entities, on the other hand, remain in a range entered following the FTX collapse last November. There are currently 117 such entities.

*Bitcoin: Number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 1k chart. Source: Glassnode*

Observers such as monitoring resource Material Indicators often note that the largest classes of whales still exert the most influence over BTC price action thanks to their trading activities.

Magazine: ‘Moral responsibility’: Can blockchain really improve trust in AI?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin ‘faces headwinds’ as US money supply drops most since 1950s

April 6, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Research from Bloomberg Intelligence argues that liquidity conditions still do not favor a continuation of the Bitcoin rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto may yet see a long-term correction thanks to central banks keeping liquidity tight, Bloomberg warned.

In its latest research, Bloomberg Intelligence revealed a cool stance on the ongoing 2023 crypto market rally.

Bloomberg: Expecting BTC price to hold “may be illogical”

Despite gaining 70% in Q1, Bitcoin is not convincing everyone that it will continue to climb or even maintain current levels near $30,000.

Examining the macroeconomic climate, Bloomberg Intelligence became the latest voice to note the close relationship between crypto performance and global central bank liquidity levels.

As inflation bites, banks have been withdrawing liquidity from the economy, with risk assets declining as a result — including crypto. The United States Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT), which began in late 2021, coincided with the current all-time high for Bitcoin.

Despite the recent banking crisis, Bloomberg noted that plunging M2 money supply and bank deposits mean that liquidity continues to be squeezed.

“Risk assets typically rise and fall on the back of liquidity and plunging US money supply, and bank deposits indicate headwinds for cryptos,” it stated in an analysis uploaded to Twitter by Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone.

“It may be illogical to expect that stock market, crude oil, copper and the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) to sustain recent bounces with year-over-year measures of money supply and commercial bank deposits falling around 2% — the most in our database since 1959.”

The misgivings come as Bitcoin faces a battle to flip historical resistance back to support, with bulls as yet unable to effect major change.

When it comes to liquidity, meanwhile, others have already noted that crypto now responds to the actions of central banks other than the Fed, and both China and Japan have enacted liquidity injections this year.

“A top question at the start of April is what stops the contracting liquidity?” Bloomberg, meanwhile, continued.

“Most central banks still tightening may portend a lower plateau for the BGCI. Our take is Bitcoin faces headwinds but will eventually transition to trade more like gold and Treasury bonds.”

A thousand words in a chart - liquidity rug-pull:
It may be illogical to expect the #stockmarket, #crudeoil, #copper and #Bitcoin to sustain recent bounces with year-over-year measures of money supply and commercial bank deposits falling the most in our database since 1959. pic.twitter.com/O36SxGdK48
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) April 5, 2023

U.S. dollars gives Bitcoin heat

BTC/USD traded around $28,100 at the time of writing on April 6, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

In a potential short-term tailwind for risk assets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) saw fresh losses, abandoning a modest comeback to drop back below 102.

Analyzing the situation, popular Crypto Twitter account Cold Blooded Shiller remained tentatively optimistic about the outcome of BTC’s price.

$DXY rejecting at the 4h resistance zone.

Indexes doing the next leg down today into some good regions.$NQ diverging the hourly on the last low and close to Daily pivot level.

RSI's cooled off.

Your prayers may just be working. But we need more energy. https://t.co/NEqizbwvUr pic.twitter.com/f9hIgteuzn
— Cold Blooded Shiller (@ColdBloodShill) April 6, 2023

Analyst Justin Bennett nonetheless flagged a distinct range still intact for the DXY, predicting a rebound to come.

“All the ‘dollar is dead’ chants are about to be silenced by what is still the global reserve,” he warned.

*U.S. dollar index (DXY) annotated chart. Source: Justin Bennett/Twitter*

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

BTC price upside ‘yet to come’ at $29K after Bitcoin RSI reset — trader

AI has potential to send Bitcoin price over $750K — Arthur Hayes

3 Bitcoin price metrics showing ‘insane’ similarities to 2020 breakout

AI automation could take over 50% of today’s work activity by 2045: McKinsey

Hyperbitcoinization coming, says Bitcoin OG as ‘wholecoiners’ hit 1 million

Bitcoin ‘faces headwinds’ as US money supply drops most since 1950s

‘Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Says He Was Wrong to Advise Selling; Congratulates ‘BTFD Generation’

Bitcoin Will Soon Shatter $250,000 Per BTC, Says Billionaire Tim Draper – Here’s His Timeline

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