Analysts at the US-based crypto exchange Kraken are detailing a massive price target for the top cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. In a new letter to traders, Kraken’s technicians use Bitcoin’s historic price action to predict where BTC may be heading in the long run. The exchange’s forecast is based on how high BTC’s price has traded above […]
The post Kraken Analysts Detail Massive $356,841 Bitcoin Price Target and Potential Ethereum Moonshot As Crypto Markets Pop appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
Economist and gold bug Peter Schiff has warned that the United States Federal Reserve’s actions to rein in inflation could lead to a “massive financial crisis” or flight away from the dollar on a global scale. Meanwhile, Joe Biden says the economy is “strong as hell,” and Bank of America and JP Morgan also say […]
The bottom "is not in" for either stocks or crypto, one analyst believes, as alarming data shows copycat moves from 2008 by the S&P 500.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to weekly lows at the Aug. 17 Wall Street open as upcoming Federal Reserve comments unsettled risk assets.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a more than 2% daily decline in BTC/USD, which hit $23,325 on Bitstamp.
Already showing signs of weakness, the pair slid further as United States equities began trading, hours before the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) was due to release minutes from its latest meeting.
While not involving a decision on interest rates, the meeting was cued to give an insight into the Fed’s thinking in terms of the next rate tweak due in September.
“The important event tonight with the FOMC minutes, through which information can be received whether the FED is going to be hawkish or dovish,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized in his latest Twitter update.
“I don't think it will have a massive impact, however, crypto tends to give it a ton of value and, therefore, lots of volatility.”
Stocks had hit major resistance in line with crypto during the week, leading some concerned sources to continue to predict a further major retracement across the board.
Justin Bennett, the founder of crypto education platform Crypto Academy, warned that the S&P 500 was copying behavior from immediately prior to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
“This is mind-blowing. The S&P 500 is mimicking the 2008 crash. Even the timing since the ATH is nearly identical,” he commented on a comparative chart.
“The bottom is NOT in for stocks or crypto.”
A telltale sign on the day came in the form of an advancing U.S. dollar, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY) seeking to attack resistance in place throughout August.
“$DXY could be on its way to 112-113 after the fakeout below 105.50. That's going to weigh on stocks and crypto,” Bennett added.
On shorter timeframes, the trend on Bitcoin was also rapidly losing steam as bid support inched down the Binance order book.
Related: Bitcoin price sees firm rejection at $24.5K as traders doubt strength
On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators captured the action, concluding that “even if we get another pump, still believe the Bear Market Rally is losing momentum.”
An upside target could come in the form of the 100-day moving average, a separate post explained, lying at $24,544 at the time of writing.
“Been warning about this breakdown for Bitcoin the past few days,” commentator Matthew Hyland concluded.
“Structure has shifted overall weak recently. Market seemed to have its first signs of life just last week. That seems to be short lived.”
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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Demirors however said she certainly expects “more pain ahead” for tech stocks and crypto as we head closer to recession.
Bitcoin (BTC) may have further to fall, but Coinshares chief strategy officer Meltem Demirors believes the top cryptocurrency will reach new all-time highs within the next 24 months.
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on July 11, Demirors noted that Bitcoin has always been a “cyclical asset” with drawdowns from peak to trough at 80 to 90% historically.
With Bitcoin currently sitting at about 65% down from its all-time highs in November 2021, Demirors believes “there is still room for some downward correction.”
However Demirors noted there has been strong support around $20,000 and that she did not expect Bitcoin to fall below $14,000. She predicted the pain would be a distant memory by 2024, saying:
“In the next 24 months, we will see new all-time highs in Bitcoin.”
Bitcoin is currently priced at $19,401, down 2% in 24 hours and down 72% from its all-time high.
A reversal may be some time off however, given Demirors can see “no near upside catalysts” — which could signal more pain in store for weaker crypto projects.
“We obviously had a lot of liquidations, a lot of insolvencies that had a massive impact on the market. [...] We're talking about $10, $20, $30 billion of capital that has basically evaporated overnight.”
“[We] certainly expect more pain ahead for tech stocks, growth, and also crypto.”
Demiror said she expected a large number of crypto assets to be wiped out during the bear market, similar to what has been seen in tech stocks.
“There's a very long, long tail of crypto assets that I think will go to zero, that doesn't really have any long-term prospect as we've seen with so many tech stocks as well.”
Louis Schoeman, managing director at broker comparison site Forex Suggest, has a similar view and in a recent 9News report predicted that the current crypto downturn could kill off as much as 90 percent of all crypto projects.
"This is a cleansing process," Schoeman said, adding that only the strongest crypto projects will survive this bear market.
"But it also serves as a massive opportunity for many no-coiners to enter the crypto market for the first time. Fortune favors the brave in crypto right now."
Related: Despite 'worst bear market ever,' Bitcoin has become more resilient, Glassnode analyst says
Last month, billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban said he doesn’t expect the crypto bear market to be over until there’s a better focus on applications with business-focused utility.
Cuban also believes mergers between different protocols and blockchains will eventually see the crypto industry consolidate, as “that’s what happens in every industry.”
It's all about two moving averages crossing over as proof that BTC price action is done with the dip.
Bitcoin (BTC) is due to give a definitive signal that a macro bottom is in this month, one analyst has concluded.
In a Twitter thread on July 6, popular commentator Wolf eyed key moving average data as proof that BTC price action will not be going lower.
Amid repeated calls for BTC/USD to revisit levels not seen since Q4 2020, one simple historical trend is now saying that the pair has already seen its latest macro lows.
Analyzing the 3-day chart, Wolf argued that the 100-day moving average (MA) crossing the 200MA will act as a price floor signal — just like in previous bear markets.
“Negative 3d MA100 will cross positive 3d MA200 by half July, that would confirm that bottom is in,” he wrote.
Specifically, the crossover of the two MAs is due on or by July 15 — in just a week’s time — after which future trajectory should be confirmed. Should Bitcoin avoid major downside in the meantime, $17,600 will thus remain as the latest long-term BTC price bottom.
Negative 3d MA100 will cross positive 3d MA200 by half July, that would confirm that bottom is in. pic.twitter.com/WgPMUkWIoy
— Wolf (@IamCryptoWolf) July 7, 2022
Despite historical precedent, such an outcome is nonetheless far from certain. Prior to the July 15 deadline, crypto markets will have to weather an ongoing macro economic storm, which has so far proved deadly for risk assets across the board.
July 13 will be of particular interest to market participants, this date marking the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States for the month of June.
As Cointelegraph reported, inflation is already at 40-year highs, and CPI readouts have shown a consistent uptrend throughout 2022.
The faster inflation is shown to be accelerating, the more likely a reaction from the Federal Reserve, with monetary tightening having a direct negative impact on risk asset performance.
BTC/USD meanwhile circled $20,500 at the time of writing on July 7, approaching weekly highs.
Related: World's first short Bitcoin ETF sees exposure explode 300% in days
In a thread of his own on July 6, analyst Keith Alan flagged various other daily, weekly and monthly MAs as zones of interest should Bitcoin manage to sustain upwards momentum.
"Continued rejections at the 21 DMA would indicate there isn't enough bullish sentiment to push higher, which brings downside targets into focus," he explained.
He noted, however, that should a resistance/support flip (R/S) occur, the 50-month MA would come into play, followed by the essential 200-week MA which has formed a key focus in prior bear markets.
1/8 Yesterday #Bitcoin retested the 21-Day Moving Average. After reclaiming it briefly, price fell back down, marking another failed attempt. Price remains in range of another retest. Here's a on why this level warrants some attention. #NFA pic.twitter.com/gfbWBXtTRk
— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) July 6, 2022
As of July 7, the 21-day MA, 50-month MA and 200-week MA stood at $20,300, $21,570 and $22,560 respectively, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
It’s been a week of polarizing opinion in crypto news. Whether it’s cryptocurrency fund managers predicting $100K bitcoin by the end of the year, Peter Schiff saying things “will only get worse as the recession deepens,” or Bill Gates slamming crypto and NFTs, citing the Greater Fool Theory, there’s been no shortage of spicy debate […]
United States stock markets provide the backdrop for reversal in Bitcoin as $30,000 manages to hold.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh local highs overnight into June 3 after United States equities cut losses.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining steadily to hit $30,670 on Bitstamp before consolidating.
The mood among stocks was more solid during the June 2 session, with the S&P 500 reclaiming the majority of its lost ground over the past month. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended up 2.7%.
Analyzing the crypto market cap compared to the Nasdaq, popular analyst TechDev noted what could be an incoming inflection point.
Potentially interesting. #BTC / $NDQ pic.twitter.com/i0k8oEyhw3
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) June 2, 2022
Fellow trader and analyst Pentoshi meanwhile issued a sobering outlook for the S&P 500 on weekly timeframes going forward.
My current working theory for #SPX and markets in general is this. I had talked about 3840 in the past being a key spot
— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) May 22, 2022
I believe we just had our swing low and that the next weekly will look like the red part drawn on the chart w/ a higher low than last week and thus risk on ST https://t.co/o7uv2b40BF pic.twitter.com/TOOn6KP9Th
Bitcoin itself continued to face calls for a retracement, which would eclipse May’s $23,800 lows.
Crypto Tony still targeted between $22,000 and $24,000, demanding a break of a trendline currently near $32,500 to consider long scalping.
“Bitcoin held the $30K level, so long would still be intact from the $29.3K region,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe meanwhile added on his short-term strategy.
“Now flipping $30.3K would be continuation towards $31.8K possible.”
At the time of writing, BTC/USD lay at around $30,500.
Zooming out, one on-chain analyst became the latest to take on the increasingly controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) BTC price model.
Related: This classic Bitcoin metric is flashing buy for first time since March 2020
Having failed to validate its $100,000 end-of-year prediction in 2021, Stock-to-Flow has become increasingly sidelined as its creator, PlanB, fields criticism.
While acknowledging the model’s potential shortcomings, Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro at on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, revisited it, offering a tweak which he argued would serve to increase its utility.
“It’s time for a fresh take on Bitcoin’s supply/demand dynamics,” a dedicated Twitter thread began.
Timmer proposed taking into account Bitcoin’s supply curve to produce a more conservative trajectory for price growth. The result, he considered, had retroactively already captured BTC price action more accurately than the raw S2F predictions.
The close-up below shows that this more modest supply model has been (in hindsight) more accurate than the original S2F’s projections for this halving cycle. /15 pic.twitter.com/65WgS4Hody
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 2, 2022
“If accurate, It suggests still robust but less pie-in-the-sky upside than before. Maybe even several years of sideways, in line with the halving cycle, and likely continued volatility,” he continued.
PlanB had noted that the May monthly close had been Bitcoin’s lowest since December 2020.
As Cointelegraph reported, the next block subsidy halving event is increasingly figuring as a line in the sand for a return to bullish strength.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Based on historical tendencies, $22,700 could now mark the next "generational bottom" for Bitcoin, new analysis says.
Bitcoin (BTC) may fall more than 40% from last week's bottom, new data warns as one analyst confronts what he says is now a bear market.
In a series of tweets on May 20, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that BTC/USD should dive to near $20,000 to conform to historical norms.
Much debate has surrounded the so-called "death cross" constructions on the Bitcoin chart. These involve the declining 50-period moving average (50MA) crossing under the 200MA.
Often in the past, such an event has triggered considerable price downside, this then going on to mark what Rekt Capital calls "generational bottoms."
"More often than not, the depth of a $BTC correction pre-Death Cross is similar to retrace depth post-Death Cross," he summarized.
Both March 2020 and May 2021 broke the rules when it comes to post-death cross losses, however — in both instances, the death cross, itself, marked the bottom.
In January 2022, the historical trend seemed to return, as a death cross event came after BTC/USD had already declined 43% from its November 2021 all-time highs of $69,000.
Another 43% from there, however, puts the pair at $22,700.
20.
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 20, 2022
So since #BTC has crashed -43% since November '21 prior to the Death Cross...$BTC could retrace a bit more to reach an overall retracement of -43% post-Death Cross, should this historical tendency continue to repeat
This would result in a ~$22,700 $BTC#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/aH91tn2xmr
"What's interesting about the scenario of a -43% post-Death Cross crash however is that it would result in a $22000 BTC," the concluding tweet read, alongside a chart highlighting key return on investment (ROI) opportunities during generational bottoms.
"Which ties in with the 200-SMA (orange), which tends to offer fantastic opportunities with outsized ROI for $BTC investors (green circles highlight this)."
Elsewhere, fellow analyst Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, said the time had come to admit that Bitcoin is in a bear market.
Related: Bitcoin must defend these price levels to avoid 'much deeper' fall: Analysis
In his latest market update on May 20, Filbfilb flagged the one-year MA as the key level to regain to exit the quagmire which resulted after losing it as support in early April.
"Ultimately we continue to sit in a bear market. This has been the case since price retreated away from the 1yr moving average which we highlighted as a key risk [...] when price got rejected off that level," he wrote.
"Until we can reclaim that level we have to face the reality that we are in a bear market for $BTC."
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
