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‘I don’t own Bitcoin, but I should’ — legendary investor Druckenmiller

Veteran investor Stanley Druckenmiller praised Bitcoin for establishing its own “brand” during an interview with hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones.

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller praised Bitcoin (BTC) for establishing a “brand” over last decade and half — admitting while he doesn’t own any Bitcoin, he ought to.

The billionaire shared his latest thoughts on Bitcoin in an Oct. 30 interview with hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, where he made comparisons between Bitcoin and gold as a store of value.

“I’m 70 years old, I own gold. I was surprised that bitcoin got going, but you know, it’s clear that the young people look at it as a store of value because it’s a lot easier to do stuff with. 17 years, to me, it’s a brand. I like gold because it’s a 5,000-year-old brand.” He added:

“So, I like them both. I don’t own any Bitcoin to be frank, but I should.”

Druckenmiller previously held Bitcoin. However in a September 2022 interview, he revealed he had sold it in light of central banks imposing tightening measures.

He did, however, say the digital asset sector would flourish in the event that people lose faith in the central banking system, making an example of the Bank of England after the British pound plummeted in mid-2022.

“I could see cryptocurrency having a big role in a Renaissance because people just aren’t going to trust the central banks."

Druckenmiller founded Duquesne Capital Management in 1981 and closed the fund in 2010. During that time, he achieved an average annual return of 30% and never experienced a down year.

His investment philosophy revolved around holding a group of stocks long, a group of stocks short and using leverage to trade futures in times of rising and falling markets.

He’s also praised blockchain technology, predicting that a ledger-based system could replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency in the future.

In 2021, Druckenmiller said Ethereum is like “Myspace before Facebook” and predicted that Ether (ETH) would eventually flip BTC.

Related: ‘Bitcoin is an international asset' — BlackRock CEO’s bullish remarks

Bitcoin’s sentiment from Wall Street firms has warmed up over the last year, most notably evidenced by a wave of propsed Bitcoin exchange-traded fund filings from major financial firms. 

The cryptocurrency industry still has its fair share of critics though.

Other well-known veteran investors Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger have long referred to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies “rat poison” and an asset class which produces no value.

Magazine: Gary Gensler’s job at risk, BlackRock’s first spot Bitcoin ETF and other news: Hodler’s Digest, June 11-17

Ethereum and Altcoin Capitulation Approaching Amid ‘One Final Push’: Analyst Benjamin Cowen

Analysts at odds over Fed, US debt ceiling impact on Bitcoin price

A political deadlock over the U.S. debt ceiling and its potential impact on the price of Bitcoin, which is already up 75% in 2023.

On April 26, House Republicans scarcely passed their bill to increase the U.S. debt ceiling. This led to analysts already weighing its potential impact on the price of Bitcoin (BTC), ranging from extremely bearish to overly bullish.

Ultimately, U.S. dollar liquidity is the key to both of these opposing viewpoint.

"Deflationary recession" to produce 2020-like BTC rally?

Some analysts, including Jesse Meyers, the COO of investment firm Onramp, believe raising the debt ceiling would prompt the Federal Reserve to print more money, thus boosting capital inflows into "risky" assets like Bitcoin.

BTC/USD daily price chart vs. dollar liquidity. Source: TradingView.com

The debt ceiling represents the maximum amount of money the U.S. government can borrow to pay its bills.

Related: Fed balance sheet adds $393B in two weeks — Will this send Bitcoin price to $40K?

Raising it means they can issue more debt to generate more capital. But since the Fed is not buying bonds anymore thanks to its "quantitative tightening," and the flow of available M2 money supply crashing, the U.S. government debt may find it hard to attract buyers. 

M2 year-over-year flow versus stock. Source: Bloomberg 

In other words, a deflationary recession that Meyers believes will force the Fed to return to its quantitive easing policy.

"When the debt ceiling is lifted and credit-contraction leads to economic crisis... They will have to print money on a massive scale," he noted, reminding:

"Bitcoin was the winner during the last round of stimulus."

Dollar credibility blow would boost Bitcoin price

The government has already hit its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling in January 2023. So, it theoretically cannot generate more capital until the Senate passes the House-passed bill.

U.S. public debt to date. Source: FRED

However, it's unlikely to pass the Senate and Biden has also vowed to veto the bill.

The standoff could result in the U.S. government defaulting on its debt in June, which poses negative consequences for the U.S. dollar, according to Jeff John Roberts, crypto editor at Fortune.

"If [Republicans] decide to go the kamikaze route during the current debt ceiling standoff, it will deliver another major hit to the dollar's credibility—and a further boost to Bitcoin," he noted

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers meanwhile downplays the fears associated with a potential debt default, noting that the odds of it happening stands under 2%.

Summers:

"I think the odds that we will default in the sense of insolvency, and over some interval people who hold bonds will not be able to get paid, are - assuming the absence of a major war - certainly under 2% over the next decade."

Fed won't go QE, bears argue

Presenting a similar outlook, analyst TedTalksMacro says extending the debt ceiling would ensure that the Fed continues contracting its balance sheet through the ongoing QT.

That points to lower liquidity and, in turn, more downside pressure for Bitcoin.

"One caveat to the liquidity down/sideways for the rest of 2023 would be the Fed winding up or slowing the current pace QT," TedTalksMacro adds.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum and Altcoin Capitulation Approaching Amid ‘One Final Push’: Analyst Benjamin Cowen

ETH hits 7-month high ahead of Shanghai and Capella upgrades

Ether has broken the $1,900 resistance level for the first time in months and is currently sitting above $1,911.

Ether (ETH) has breached $1,900 for the first time in over seven months, a week before staking withdrawals are enabled in the next major update for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

CoinMarketCap data shows the last time Ether was over $1,900 was on Aug. 16, 2022, amid a broader crypto sell-off at a time when the United States Federal Reserve was hiking the Federal Funds rate at a record pace to combat inflation.

The Ethereum Shanghai hard fork, set to occur on April 12, will implement EIP-4895 — allowing validators and stakers to withdraw staked ETH from the beacon chain — in addition to other EIPs which aim to help increase transaction speeds while reducing transaction costs.

The recent price increase could be driven by expectations that the Fed may ease up on its quantitative tightening efforts as rate increases cause cracks in the global banking industry, or by increased demand for Ether given that staking is slated to be more flexible.

While Bitcoin (BTC) has also recorded gains in recent days, ETH/BTC — a trading pair comparing the price of ETH to BTC — has increased by nearly 3% in the last week according to TradingView, suggesting both factors may be contributing to Ether’s price jump.

While Shanghai refers to the fork on the execution layer client side, Capella is the upgrade name on the consensus layer client side and is set to be executed shortly after Shanghai on April 12.

The execution layer is where all the smart contracts and protocol rules are, while the consensus layer ensures that all network validators follow these rules.

Related: 3 reasons why Ethereum price can reach $3K in Q2

It is worth noting that the price of ETH dropped sharply following the execution of The Merge on Sept. 15, 2022, where it lost just under a quarter of its value in one week according to CoinMarketCap.

ETH price action since August 2022. Source: CoinMarketCap

Despite some analysts and traders suggesting the unlocking of staked Ether will create sell pressure, what will occur following the Shanghai and Capella updates is currently speculation.

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Ethereum and Altcoin Capitulation Approaching Amid ‘One Final Push’: Analyst Benjamin Cowen

‘Next Round of Bailouts Is Here’ — Bitcoin and Precious Metals Soar Amid Speculation of Fed Policy Change

‘Next Round of Bailouts Is Here’ — Bitcoin and Precious Metals Soar Amid Speculation of Fed Policy ChangeAt around 7:30 a.m. ET, the price of bitcoin skyrocketed past the $27,000 range to a high of $27,025 per unit. Precious metals, or PMs, like gold and silver, also rose between 1.98% and 2.12% against the U.S. dollar over the past day. While many market observers are wondering why specific assets like PMs and […]

Ethereum and Altcoin Capitulation Approaching Amid ‘One Final Push’: Analyst Benjamin Cowen

Silicon Valley Bank Faces Financial Woes as Stock Is Halted, Sells $21 Billion Bond Portfolio at a $1.8 Billion Loss

Silicon Valley Bank Faces Financial Woes as Stock Is Halted, Sells  Billion Bond Portfolio at a .8 Billion LossOn March 10, 2023, market observers are discussing the troubles Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) faces, as the firm’s stock slid more than 60% in the last 24 hours. SVB was forced to sell a $21 billion bond portfolio at a $1.8 billion loss. CEO Greg Becker insists that the financial institution “will be well positioned” […]

Ethereum and Altcoin Capitulation Approaching Amid ‘One Final Push’: Analyst Benjamin Cowen

Expert Warns of Possible Deflationary Depression as Money Supply Contracts: ‘Pay Attention to QT and the Money Supply’

Expert Warns of Possible Deflationary Depression as Money Supply Contracts: ‘Pay Attention to QT and the Money Supply’During the Covid-19 pandemic, central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve loosened fiscal and monetary policy. Now, these same financial institutions are seemingly engaging in quantitative tightening (QT) practices. According to Nick Gerli, CEO and founder of Reventure Consulting, “the money supply is officially contracting.” This has only happened four times in the last […]

Ethereum and Altcoin Capitulation Approaching Amid ‘One Final Push’: Analyst Benjamin Cowen

Bitcoin price surge: Breakthrough or bull trap? Pundits weigh in

Bitcoin nearly broke its record for the longest streak of daily green price candles this month, but many believe its recent surge could be short-lived.

While Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a strong price pump to kick off the new year, many industry pundits are not convinced the cryptocurrency will continue its upward trajectory — at least in the short to mid-term. 

The impressive price surge — which saw BTC experience 14 days of consecutive price increases earlier this month — has called on many to consider whether the surge marks a significant “breakthrough” or is indicative of a “bull trap."

Speaking to Cointelegraph on Jan. 23, James Edwards, a cryptocurrency analyst at Australian-based fintech firm Finder said the argument for a “bull trap” is stronger, warning the recent surge could be “short-lived.”

He stated that while the BTC price moved upwards over the weekend, the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 also made similar rallies:

"This suggests to me that the rally in crypto is not unique, and instead part of a wider market uplift as inflation figures stall and a risk-on appetite appears to return to investments. So Bitcoin is just enjoying the effects of positive sentiment that originated elsewhere. This is likely to be short-lived.”

Edwards added that cryptocurrency markets still have some “significant hurdles to clear before a new bull market can begin.”

Among those obstacles, he mentioned include the continued fallout over FTX’s collapse and the recent Chapter 11 filing by Genesis on Jan. 19.

"As such, we're going to see further sell-offs and downsizing as crypto firms adjust their balance sheets and dump tokens onto the market to cover debt and try to stay afloat,” he explained.

In a statement to Cointelegraph, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone wasn’t confident in the BTC price trajectory either, citing recessionary-like macroeconomic conditions as too big of a barrier for BTC to overcome.

“With the world leaning into recession and most central banks tightening, I think the macroeconomic ebbing tide is still the primary headwind for Bitcoin and crypto prices.”

The sentiment was also shared among some on Crypto Twitter, with cryptocurrency analyst and swing trader “Capo of Crypto” telling his 710,000 Twitter followers on Jan. 21 that BTC’s push past resistance looks like “the biggest bull trap” he has ever seen:

However, not all industry pundits were as bearish.

Cryptocurrency market analysis platform IncomeSharks appeared bullish, having shared a “Wall St. Cheat Sheet” chart to its 379,300 Twitter followers on Jan. 22 making a mockery of the “Bears” who think the latest price movements are indicative of a “bull trap.”

Sem Agterberg, the CEO and co-founder of AI-based trading bot CryptoSea also recently shared a flood of posts expressing positive sentiment towards BTC price action to his 431,700 Twitter followers, suggesting that a “BULL FLAG BREAKOUT” towards $25,000 may soon be on the cards:

Meanwhile, others have refrained from making a forecast on the price, likely given the unpredictability of crypto markets.

Related: Bitcoin price consolidation opens the door for APE, MANA, AAVE and FIL to move higher

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $22,738, while the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is currently at “Neutral” with a score of 50 out of 100, according to Alternative.me.

The cryptocurrency managed to break out of the “Fear” zone on Jan. 13 — which was then scored at 31 — after the BTC price increased for seven consecutive days.

Market sentiment of Bitcoin expressed on a 0-100 “Fear & Greed Index” scale. Source: Alternative.me.

Ethereum and Altcoin Capitulation Approaching Amid ‘One Final Push’: Analyst Benjamin Cowen

Bitcoin is a ‘wild card’ set to outperform —Bloomberg analyst

The commodity strategist has pegged Bitcoin to rebound strongly from the bear market despite headwinds for high-risk assets.

Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone has labeled Bitcoin (BTC) a “wild card” which is “ripe” to outperform once traditional stocks finally bottom out. 

In a Sept.7 post on Linkedin and Twitter, McGlone explained that while the United States (U.S.) Federal Reserve tightening will likely determine the direction of the stock market, Bitcoin remains a “wildcard” that could buck the trend, stating:

“Bitcoin is a wild card that’s more ripe to outperform when stocks bottom, but transitioning to be more like gold and bonds.”

The commodities strategist shared more details in a Sept. 7 report, which noted that Bitcoin was primed to rebound strongly from the bear market despite a “strong headwind” toward high-risk assets:

“It's typically a matter of time for the fed funds gauge to flip toward cuts, and when it does, Bitcoin is poised to be a primary beneficiary.”

The report notes that while Bitcoin would follow a similar trend to treasury bonds and gold, Ethereum (ETH) “may have a higher correlation with stocks.”

The Federal Reserve’s increased quantitative tightening comes amid several major interest rate hikes throughout 2022, with the most recent spike accounting for a 75 basis points increase on Jul. 27.

While it is not known exactly when the Fed's quantitative tightening will end, some economists predicted the endpoint will begin “at some point in 2023” according to a Bloomberg article published in August. 

Quantitative tightening is a contractionary monetary policy tool that is used by central banks to reduce the level of money supply and liquidity in an economy, which can reduce spending across markets, such as stocks. 

Related: Bitcoin likely to transition to a risk-off asset in H2 2022, says Bloomberg analyst

But despite Bloomberg's bullish take, other experts believe that Bitcoin and equity markets have actually become more correlated than before.

Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe recently said the correlation between the S&P 500 index and BTC was approaching 100%, while a number of IMF economists claimed to have seen a 10-fold increase in correlation between crypto and equity markets in some regions of the world.

Ethereum and Altcoin Capitulation Approaching Amid ‘One Final Push’: Analyst Benjamin Cowen

Bitcoin ‘whales’ and ‘fishes’ pause accumulation as markets weigh March 50bps hike odds

If Bitcoin benefited from quantitative easing, will it be hurt by quantitative tightening?

An uptick in Bitcoin (BTC) supply to whales' addresses witnessed across January appears to be stalling midway as the price continues its intraday correction toward $42,000, the latest data from CoinMetrics shows.

Whales, fishes take a break from Bitcoin

The sum of Bitcoin being held in addresses whose balance was at least 1,000 BTC came to be 8.10 million BTC as of Feb. 16, almost 0.12% higher month-to-date. In comparison, the balance was 7.91 million BTC at the beginning of this year, up 2.4% year-to-date.

Bitcoin supply in addresses with balance greater than 1,000 BTC. Source: CoinMetrics, Messari

Notably, the accumulation behavior among Bitcoin's richest wallets started slowing down after BTC closed above $40,000 in early February. Their supply fluctuated within the 8.09-8.10 million BTC range as Bitcoin did the same between $41,000 and $45,500, signaling that demand from whales has been subsiding inside the said trading area.

A similar outlook appeared in addresses that hold less than 1 BTC, also called "fishes," showcasing that they had halted the accumulation of Bitcoin in February as its price entered the $41,000-45,500 price range.

 Ecoinometrics' analyst Nick blamed the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening plans for making Bitcoin whales and fishes "cautious," reiterating his statements from last week, wherein he warned that "if Bitcoin has greatly benefited from quantitative easing, it can also be hurt by quantitative tightening."

"This is why inflation not showing any sign of slowing down is a big deal."

No "dot plot" yet

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its January meeting, revealing a group of thoroughly alarmed central bank governors looking more prepared to hike rates too much to contain inflation.

As for how fast and how far the rate hikes would go, the minutes did not leave any hints.

Vasja Zupan, president of Dubai-based Matrix exchange, told Cointelegraph that the Fed fund futures market now sees a 50% possibility of a 50bps rate hike in March, a drop from the previous 63%. But the minutes themselves do not discuss a 0.5% interest rate increase anywhere.

"Of course, the mixed macroeconomic outlook has left Bitcoin's most influential investors — the whales and long-term holders — in the dark," asserted Zupan, adding:

"The top cryptocurrency has been cluelessly tailing day-to-day trends in the U.S. stock market. However, I see it as weighted and not long-term significant, especially as the Fed bosses—hopefully—shed more light on their dot-plot after the March hike."

Strong hodling sentiment

Researcher Willy Woo provided a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin, noting that its recent price declines, including the 50% drawdown from $69,000, were due to selling in the futures market, not on-chain investors.

Bitcoin demand/supply among holders versus futures market. Source: Willy Woo

"In the old regime of a bearish phase (see May 2021), investors would simply sell their BTC into cash," Woo wrote in a note published Feb. 15, adding:

"In the new regime, assuming the investor wants to stay in cash rather than to rotate capital into another asset like equities, it's much more profitable to hold onto BTC while shorting the futures market."

Related: Bitcoin briefly dips below $43K as Fed says rate hike ‘soon appropriate’

As Glassnode further noted, in the May-July 2021 session, investors' de-risking in the Bitcoin futures market coincided with a sale of coins in the spot market, which was confirmed by a rise in net coin inflow to exchanges. But that is not the case in the ongoing price decline, as shown in the chart below.

Bitcoin exchange net position change. Source: Glassnode

"Across all exchanges we track, BTC is flowing out of reserves and into investor wallets at a rate of 42.9k BTC per month," Glassnode wrote, adding:

"This trend of net outflows has now been sustained for around 3-weeks, supporting the current price bounce from the recent $33.5k lows."

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum and Altcoin Capitulation Approaching Amid ‘One Final Push’: Analyst Benjamin Cowen