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Bitcoin analysis mostly ‘noise,’ a $70K breakout is what matters

Another Bitcoin break above $70,000 will be a significant signal for traders, but according to Mati Greenspan, analysis is “pretty futile” until it happens.

Bitcoin price watchers are scrutinizing charts top to bottom, but one analyst says there’s little point until the cryptocurrency gets closer to its all-time high again.

“It’s the breakouts that are exciting, so until we have a breakout, analyzing the charts will be pretty futile,” Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan explained to Cointelegraph.

He claimed there is “a lot of noise” from crypto traders and analysts giving market commentary at the moment.

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Latam Insights Encore: El Salvador Is Uniquely Positioned to Become the Microstrategy of Nation States

Was the first reply to the Bitcoin White Paper Satoshi himself? In-depth theory

Gerald Votta from Quantum Economics has a new theory on the true identity of Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto: the author of the first reply to the White Paper itself.

Ever since Satoshi Natamoto, the anonymous inventor of Bitcoin, disappeared in 2011 there has been no shortage of theories about his identity.

Hal Finney, Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto, Nick Szabo and Craig Wright have all be cited as possible contenders (even if CSW is the main person pushing that last theory.)

Now, after months of research Quantum Economics’ Director of Gamefi Research Gerald Votta thinks that he has found the answer to Satoshi’s true identity — Canadian cryptographer James A. Donald. In a new research article piece on Nov. 17 Votta outlined intriguing circumstantial evidence he believes proves the link.

Donald was the very first person to comment on the Bitcoin White Paper in 2008, which piqued Votta’s interest. Votta wrote that the “almost instantaneous” timing was “very suspicious,” and led him to “look further into his [Donald’s] life.”

He explained to Cointelegraph:

“If you look at the timing, Donald comments like minutes after the Bitcoin White Paper is put up and ask such a specific question to Satoshi — How could you read the White Paper, analyze it, and come up with this amazing scaling question in like three minutes? It’s almost impossible.”

Votta wrote that Donald also fitted the bill down to a tee: "Not only did Donald have an advanced understanding of computers, programming, and cryptography, he was well versed in economics, history, and law. It would be his own words, however, which helped me connect him to Satoshi Nakamoto."

This is not the first time the theory has come up. Back in 2014, a forum post by user Bruno Kucinskas on a Bitcoin forum also pointed to the same evidence about the speedy reply sparking a debate. One user argued the timestamp varies between different archives, and another suggested the time zones were different to those proposed which would call into question the length of time between the post and the reply.

There is also the possibility that Satoshi and Donald spoke privately before posting the question and response publicly. Votta told Cointelegraph that he had read all these counterarguments, but that his evidence “speaks for itself”. He noted that the website for Donald’s project Crypto Kong alone “is literally Bitcoin incarnate.”

Votta’s research delved into Crypto Kong, a software program that uses elliptic curve cryptography to sign documents electronically. “This particular program is eerily familiar to the foundational basis of Bitcoin,” he wrote, with Votta's blog post delving into similarities between the information on the site and the White Paper.

The echeque website contains the details for Crypto Kong and “echeque.com” was the domain of Donald’s email “james@echeque.com”. Donald emailed Satoshi from this address on at least one occasion, said Votta.

Adding to the evidence, on the main Crypto Kong page on the echeque website, there is a minimized example of Kong on the right side of the screen, with a digital signature which matches the one sent to Satoshi Nakamoto up to the thirty-fourth character.

So why would Satoshi would carry on a conversation with himself from two separate addresses if he was, in fact, Donald. In Votta’s opinion, this tactic was a ploy to “maintain anonymity and to spark contrarian view on Bitcoin.”

Email correspondence between Satoshi and Donald.  Source: metzdowd

He also supports his claim with evidence gathered by analyzing the written language Satoshi employed.“[Donald’s] communications contained language that made me think of Satoshi,” he wrote.

Related: From Dorian Nakamoto to Elon Musk: The Incomplete List of People Speculated to Be Satoshi Nakamoto

He claims that Satoshi’s “excellent grasp of not only the English language, but also North American English” means that he likely was born, grew up or studied either in the U.S., U.K. or a former British colony.

For example, Satoshi uses the word “Chancellor” and British spelling of the word “favour.”

Likewise, he was able to connect Satoshi to Donald through the peculiar use of the word “Chaumian.” Donald used the word in an email response about Digicash patents on Aug. 3, 2003, and Satoshi also used it in an email response on Feb 11, 2009.

“With that, the mystery was solved. The odds of two individuals having these same credentials, a clear grasp of North American language and culture, and sharing almost the same White Paper is astronomically low,” said Votta.

Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan said that Gerard had been working on the research for months, along with VP of content Charles Bovaird who “ensured proper research practices and information sourcing.”

The reaction since the post was published had been “outstanding” he said.

"It's by far one of our most popular research pieces to date and we're still getting incredible feedback from industry vets."

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Mati Greenspan warns SEC’s latest action could threaten future of all cryptocurrencies

Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan has sounded the alarm over the damage the SEC’s case against LBRY could do to crypto.

Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan has warned the SEC’s latest action against decentralized content platform LBRY could threaten the future of all cryptocurrencies.

According to the complaint filed by the SEC on March 29, LBRY is alleged to have offered and sold millions worth of unregistered securities through LBRY Credit tokens since 2016. The company has disputed the SEC’s accusations, as they state their tokens are utility-focused and not for speculation.

In today’s newsletter, ominous titled “Don’t let them kill crypto,” Greenspan asserts that if the SEC’s lawsuit against LBRY is successful, it will have dramatic consequences:

“Should the court side against LBRY, it would literally put the future of all cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ether, in question.”

Greenspan notes that the U.S has fallen far behind on crypto regulation and warns this case could set a precedent of classifying "multifaceted programmable money" as securities.

“Judges generally take their guidance from previous rulings on similar cases, so a negative ruling here could make it easier for them to kill off any project which utilizes crypto tokens. DeFi, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), smart contracts, and just about everything except possibly stablecoins.”

Greenspan believes the platform's only crime was to set up in the U.S. and told Cointelegraph the case highlights the US’s  “backwards approach to forward-looking innovation.”

Although the Isreal-based commentator doesn’t think an SEC victory would stifle innovation in the crypto industry overall, it will certainly do so in the U.S.:

“It will simply drive it out of the United States. Projects like this are flourishing in Europe and some parts of Asia and the technology continues to progress globally. America is being left behind.”

LBRY has contested the SEC case, arguing that while the “SEC claims that Credits have no use other than speculation,” the Credits actually allow users to tip, publish, purchase and boost content on the platform, and the company “at no time indicated that LBRY Credits were an investment, and consistently discouraged purchasing Credits for this purpose.”

Greenspan has urged readers of his newsletter to either write a letter to congress to show support of LBRY, or visit helplbrysavecrypto.com. to get more educated about the "idiotic actions of American regulators."

Despite sounding alarm bells over a negative outcome of this case, Greenspan told Cointelegraph he is optimistic:

“Hopefully, the judge will be able to see the blatant holes in the SEC’s case. LBRY seems to have some very sound arguments so I’m quite optimistic.”

Latam Insights Encore: El Salvador Is Uniquely Positioned to Become the Microstrategy of Nation States