Bitcoin’s next rally may be imminent, on-chain analyst says

May 30, 2023 Coin Telegraph

On-chain data shows that an imminent Bitcoin rally could drive its price up to $32,000, says Glassnode lead analyst James Check.

After a long period of unusually low volatility, Bitcoin’s (BTC) next major price move is likely imminent and could drive BTC to $32,000, according to James Check, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode. That price level is where Bitcoin’s “true cost basis is sitting,” Check explained in an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph.

To calculate Bitcoin’s average cost basis — the average price at which BTC was bought — Check and his team removed coins that are lost forever from the calculation and focused on active Bitcoin investors.

“It’s where the mean reversion level would be, so a rally to that level, to be honest, wouldn’t surprise me,” he said.

Despite this bullish scenario, Check also pointed out that a large number of investors are likely tired of the bear market and waiting for Bitcoin to reach that level before selling, thus putting pressure on the price.

“That's an area where you start getting more resistance,” he stated.

To find out more about the chances of an upcoming Bitcoin rally, check the full interview on our YouTube channel — and don’t forget to subscribe!

Bitcoin advocates rally at Texas State Capitol to oppose bill cutting mining incentives

April 25, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin mining

“When you target one industry the way they are with this bill, that’s bad policy no matter what the industry you’re targeting,” said Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter.

Roughly 100 people answered the call from the crypto advocacy groups Chamber of Digital Commerce, Satoshi Action Fund, and Texas Blockchain Council to show Texas lawmakers they were against legislation targeting crypto mining firms.

Gathering at the Texas Capitol in Austin on April 25, crypto enthusiasts, state lawmakers, industry leaders, and even a few members of the Capitol Police met to discuss the possible future of Bitcoin (BTC) mining in the Lone Star State should Senate Bill 1751 move through the legislature. The proposed legislation would amend sections of Texas’ utilities and tax code to add restrictions for crypto mining companies.

The bill passed the Texas Senate Committee on Business and Commerce as well as through a vote on the Senate floor. As of April 24, the state’s House of Representatives had conducted a first reading of the legislation, whereupon it moved to the Committee on State Affairs.

Under the current version of SB 1751, crypto mining firms participating in a program intended to compensate them for load reductions on the state’s power grid through the Electric Reliability Council of Texas would have their incentives capped at 10%. In addition, certain companies operating data centers would also not receive an abatement on state taxes starting in September 2023.

“The fights about mining aren’t really about mining,” Perianne Boring, CEO of the Chamber of Digital Commerce, said to Cointelegraph at the event. “It’s not really about environmental concerns. What it’s really about is controlling energy use.” She clarified:

“Bitcoin mining is a way for regulators to set a new precedent to say who is allowed to purchase energy, who is allowed to purchase power and how you are allowed to use it in a free society.”

‘Digital Freedom rally’ to oppose Senate Bill 1751 in Texas State Capitol #Bitcoin $BTC pic.twitter.com/lwAzAbSnY0
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) April 25, 2023

If passed, the bill could potentially threaten mining operations for many firms in Texas, a major player in the BTC hash rate following China’s crackdown. Riot Platforms and White Rock Management run mining rigs in Texas. However, Argo Blockchain and Mawson Infrastructure Group have announced plans to sell their Texas facilities to Galaxy Digital and a Singapore-based fund manager, respectively.

Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter said he had been monitoring the movement of the Texas bill, discussing its potential impact with local lawmakers. According to Porter, who advocates for pro-crypto legislation with policymakers across the United States, much of the pushback on mining is usually at the county level rather than state — one exception being New York’s Proof-of-Work mining moratorium passed in 2022.

“When you target one industry the way they are with this bill, that’s bad policy no matter what the industry you’re targeting,” Porter said to Cointelegraph. “It’s not a ban [like New York’s] but it is very much limiting the space and will hurt the growth of Bitcoin mining.”

Porter added that even though SB 1751 hadn’t been signed into law, it could potentially discourage investors from coming into the state. He said he had seen many policymakers respond to crypto and blockchain based on complaints rather than the innovative aspects of the technology.

“You shouldn’t punish the whole industry because one bad actor comes in [...] What we want to see is policy and regulations that acknowledge these bad actors and try to limit their ability to come into the space but doesn’t just kill the whole industry overnight.”

The Consensus 2023 conference will be taking place in Austin from April 26-28 featuring speakers from across the crypto and blockchain space. Cointelegraph staff will be in attendance.

Magazine: Crypto City: Guide to Austin

Solana Faces Renewed Criticism After 10th Downtime and Bumpy Restart, but Developers Remain Optimistic

February 28, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Social token platform Rally announces shutdown of sidechain

January 31, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Business

Rally cited a "challenging year" for the crypto industry in its decision to “begin to sunset” the platform's sidechain after Jan. 31.

Rally, a social token platform, has announced nonfungible tokens (NFTs) on its sidechain will no longer be accessible.

Users reported across social media platforms that Rally said the platform’s sidechain will “begin to sunset” after Jan. 31, leaving users unable to access NFTs once the site fully shuts down. The site’s developers did not say that they would be offering another path forward in the future, but hinted at building “leaner web3 experiences and/or products on mainnet.”

“2022 was a challenging year not only for the platform, but also for the entire crypto industry,” said Rally. “The team has worked relentlessly to try to find a path forward, however the challenges and macro headwinds are too overwhelming to overcome in the current environment.”

Rally facilitated creators and artists launching their own social token projects and establishing independent communities directly on the platform. The “creator coins” allowed users to essentially monetize themselves, providing additional revenue.

Bitcoin Touches $21,000, Shattering Historic Line of Resistance and Erasing FTX Gap

January 14, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Trader Who Accurately Predicted Bitcoin Top and Bottom Updates Outlook After Big Crypto Rally

January 12, 2023 The Daily Hodl

BTC Wraps up 13 Consecutive Years of Recorded Market Value, With No Santa Rally in 2022

December 25, 2022 Bitcoin.com

Next Bitcoin rally to start in Q2 2023 — Mark Yusko explains why

October 26, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Assets

The anticipation of the next Bitcoin halving will spark a crypto rally in 2023 regardless of the grim macroeconomic picture, according to hedge fund manager Mark Yusko.

The anticipation of the next Bitcoin (BTC) halving will be the main catalyst that sparks a new crypto rally as soon as the second quarter of 2023, according to hedge fund manager Mark Yusko.

The halving mechanism, which reduces Bitcoin’s block rewards by half every four years, has historically been a major catalyst for crypto rallies. The next halving is expected to occur in early 2024.

“Usually the market will anticipate that by about nine months,” Yusko said in a recent interview with Cointelegraph.

According to the hedge fund manager, the halving will propel Bitcoin to $100,000, and potentially beyond, “by the laws of math.”

“If the block rewards get cut in half to 3.125 from 6.25, then the price has got to double-ish in order for the miners to continue to make money,” he stated.

Yusko thinks the rally is going to take place despite an unfavorable macroeconomic picture dominated by high interest rates and slow growth.

That is because, according to Yusko, digital assets will ultimately prove to be uncorrelated with equity markets.

“Traditional assets are driven by economic growth, Fed policies, inflation. Crypto is driven by the technology itself, millennial adoption,” explained Yusko.

Watch the full interview on our YouTube channel, and don’t forget to subscribe!

How long will the crypto bear market last? Raoul Pal’s macro analysis

May 12, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Price

In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, macro investor Raoul Pal analyzes the macro factors that are keeping the crypto markets under pressure and the triggers that could spark the next Bitcoin rally.

Macro investor Raoul Pal is convinced that the current crypto bear market will end only once the Fed eases its hawkish monetary policy by halting interest rate hikes. That could happen in the next couple of months, according to Pal's predictions.

“The Fed are unlikely to raise rates as far and as fast as people expect. My guess is they probably stop raising rates sometime in the summer and that will be it,” he said in an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph.

Pal sees the combination of high interest rates and fear of an upcoming recession as the main macro factors that are causing the current crypto bear market.

“Retail investors’ income has not gone up as much as prices, so they've lost discretionary income. So, people can only dollar cost average less, can get less involved,” he said.

Pal thinks that the market's bottom has not yet been reached and that a mass liquidation phase involving crypto and legacy assets could be coming soon.

“[Crypto] could see liquidation spike at some point if we see one in equities and then eventually that will be the final capitulation of the market,” he said.

At that point, according to Pal, the Fed will ease its monetary policy, allowing some liquidity to flow into financial markets, thus sparking the next crypto rally.

"We'll see bonds rally, crypto rally, maybe some of the technology stocks rally," said Pal.

Besides the macro picture, other factors that could facilitate the next bull run are the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum’s switching to a proof-of-stake system, which is expected for Q3.

Check out the full interview on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!

Bitcoin correction weakest of 2021 so far, as hopes of Santa Claus rally rise

December 1, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has fallen just 17% from ATH which makes this correction the shallowest of the year so far.

In previous bull market cycles, there has been a measurable correction before a rally at the end of the year — and if history rhymes it could be on the cards again.

We’ve certainly experienced the correction: Bitcoin hit an all-time high of around $69K on Nov. 10 and has retreated around 17% to current levels.

Some mainstream media outlets such as Forbes have taken the view the current pullback has plunged markets back into bearish territory with the rather salacious headline: “Did Bitcoin Enter A Bear Market After Falling 20% From Its ATH?” on a Nov. 30 article.

But November's dip was actually the weakest correction of 2021, overshadowed by Bitcoin’s whopping 53.4% correction over three months between April and July. The most recent correction in September was the second deepest, reaching 37% from April's ATH.

In its Nov. 29 “Week Onchain” report, analytics provider Glassnode argued that the current correction is just “business as usual for Bitcoin hodlers” hinting that it may soon be over. It also confirmed that this current market correction is “actually the least severe in 2021.”

Barring a stock market plunge due to the Omicron variant situation becoming worse, some believe we may be on track for a Santa Claus rally. It's a term from the stock market when prices rise during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in January, however, it has also been noted in crypto markets in previous years and is often shorthand for price rises throughout December.

Last December, saw a 47% surge in BTC prices throughout the month and December in 2017 witnessed an 80% pump to a new all-time high at the time. Both were in bull markets like today.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at just over $57K so a Santa Claus rally similar to last year could see prices surge to top $80K before the year is out.

8848 Invest co-founder Nikita Rudenia is also confident about a Santa Claus rally commenting:

“Despite the obvious setbacks thus far, Bitcoin is still on track to close the year at $70,000 per coin and, should this feat be achieved, we may see the coin touch $75,000 in early 2022 before we get a major correction.”

Interestingly Ether is currently outperforming. The ETH/BTC ratio is the highest it has been since mid-May at 0.082 BTC per ETH or around 12 ETH per BTC according to CoinGecko. This could see ETH lead further price gains in December.

After taking a deep dive into the on-chain patterns, Glassnode concluded that Bitcoin investors are in more profitable positions than during September’s correction.

“Both Long and Short-term Holders are holding more profitable supply than September's correction, which can generally be viewed as constructive for price.”

Glassnode reported that the total proportion of profitable supply held by short-term holders has increased by 60% since September. It summarized "in bull market conditions, this combination usually sets out a fairly constructive short-term outlook."

Hopes of a Santa Clause rally, therefore, are starting to grow. Such a spurt at the end of the year can be attributed to a number of factors such as holiday cheer and increased liquidity due to Christmas bonuses.

However, the new Omicron variant could put a dampener on the party if there is a major impact on global financial markets and more lockdowns are enforced or seem likely. According to Nasdaq, investors may be on the sidelines for the time being until more is known about the new viral strain.

On the upside, Bitcoin was trading at just $18,857 this time last year.

Rally

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