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Solana eyes 40% jump in August despite long-term bearish signals

July 26, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

The bear flag setup for SOL price could result in another interim relief rally amid macro headwinds.

Solana (SOL) dipped to a two-week low at around $35.50 on July 26, mirroring downside moves elsewhere in the crypto market. Nonetheless, technicals suggests that Solana's price flirts with the prospects of rising 40% in August.

SOL hits key inflection point

Ironically, the bullish setup for Solana emerges out of a classic bearish continuation pattern.

On the daily chart, SOL's price has been consolidating inside what appears to be a "bear flag," a technical pattern that develops during a downtrend and gets resolved after the instrument exits it with further price drops.

The so-called bear flag breakdown has not happened yet. Instead, SOL has been holding the lower trendline as support, raising possibilities of a sharp rebound toward the upper trendline, as illustrated in the chart below.

*SOL/USD daily price chart featuring 'bear flag.' Source: TradingView*

The rebound setup exposes SOL to a potential rally toward $49.50 in August, up 40% from today's price. The $49-$50 level had served as both support and resistance in May.

Solana network performance still a concern — researcher

The potential bear flag rebound will serve as interim relief to Solana bulls, given SOL's overall bias remains skewed to the downside.

Macro forces such as the Fed's hawkish monetary policies and the collapse of the $40 billion "algorithmic stablecoin" project Terra have sent the crypto market into a tailspin. As a result, Solana, like any other risky asset, has suffered declines across its financial and network usage metrics in 2022.

For instance, the average number of daily transactions atop the Solana blockchain plunged by 17.6% in Q2/2022 versus the previous quarter, according to data from Messari.

Meanwhile, Solana's revenue dropped 44.4% quarter-on-quarter (also because of recurring network outages).

*Solana Financial Overview Q2/2022. Source: Messari*

"As seen in 2021 and throughout Q1 and Q2, degraded network performance decreases network usage and reduces the network’s continued flow of revenue," noted James Trautman, a researcher at Messari, adding:

"If Solana were to continue to experience degraded performance that lasts for a material amount of time, a resulting drag on fundamental usage may catalyze volatility and drag on network value."

Bear flag breakdown?

The mix of macro and network-related concerns risk triggering the bear flag breakdown by September.

SOL's decisive close below the flag's lower trendline means more downside is likely to the $21-$23 region, according to the technical setup illustrated below.

*SOL/USD daily price chart featuring bear flag breakdown setup. Source: TradingView*

In other words, a 35%-38% drop from current price levels.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Avalanche rebounds 25% in five days as AVAX price tests key level — big rally ahead?

May 5, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Avalanche

Crypto market correlation and Valkyrie's Avalanche fund launch also helped push AVAX to a weekly high.

Avalanche (AVAX) has rebounded strongly five days after testing a key inflection area as its support. Now, the AVAX/USD pair faces the possibility of continuing its upside retracement move further into Q2.

A 30%-plus move ahead?

AVAX's price surged to almost $69.50 on May 5 from nearly $55 on April 30, a 25% jump.

Interestingly, AVAX's rebound move surfaced inside the same support area ($54-60 range) that had preceded a 100% and a 175% price rally in the January 2022-April 2022 and the October 2021-November 2021 session, respectively.

*AVAX/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Additionally, the lower trendline of the AVAX's prevailing descending channel pattern (possibly a "bull flag") served as support. That raised the Avalanche token's potential to extend its rebound move towards the channel's upper trendline near $90, up almost 35% from today's price.

Valkyrie launches AVAX fund

AVAX's price rally also coincided with similar upside moves elsewhere in the crypto market, in part due to Federal Reserve's announcement on May 4 to hike interest rates by 0.5% against the widely-anticipated 0.75%.

AVAX is up by about 20% when measured from its May 4's lows near $59. Interestingly, its gains turned out to be higher than its top rivaling assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Polkadot (DOT). That could be due to Valkyrie.

The Tennessee-based crypto investment firm announced on May 4 that it is launching an Avalanche Trust (VAVAX) for accredited investors. It set the minimum investment at $25,000 and, according to sources, has already attracted $25 million to its vaults.

We're excited to partner with @avalancheavax to launch the Valkyrie Avalanche Trust today! Gain secure access to $AVAX within the ease of a trust vehicle.
Learn more below pic.twitter.com/UvpnDId0ln
— Valkyrie (@ValkyrieFunds) May 4, 2022

The launch comes after Avalanche saw uptrends in key metrics, including usage and revenue generation.

In detail, the network's average daily transactions nearly doubled in Q1/2022 (+82.8%) compared to the previous quarter, while its total income grew by 72.7% in the same timeframe, reports Messari researcher James Trautman.

*Avalanche network value and cumulative revenue during Q1. Source: Messari*

The analyst further highlighted that Avalanche's revenue growth could put "upward pressures" on AVAX's market value, given its proof-of-stake network burns 100% of fees (derived in AVAX), and thus lowers the total supply in circulation.

"This drives value to all token holders through increased scarcity rather than compounding the balances of validators and delegators," Trautman wrote, adding:

"The question is just how statistically significant the spread between revenue and market value is [...] As fundamental value (as opposed to speculative value) becomes a more substantial part of market value, a strong correlation between revenue and market value should theoretically exist."

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Solana’s STEPN hits record high as GMT price skyrockets 34,000% in over a month

April 19, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

Strong hype around move-to-earn tokens could offset the bearish technicals emerging for GMT.

STEPN (GMT), a so-called "move-to-earn" token using the Solana (SOL) blockchain, has soared incredibly since its market debut in March.

GMT's price jumped from $0.01 on March 9 to a record high of $3.45 on April 19 — a 34,000% upside move in just 41 days (data from Binance). Its massive uptrend appeared primarily due to the hype surrounding decentralized finance (DeFi) projects that reward users in tokens for staying active.

For instance, the prices of GMT and its top rivals, including Genopets (GENE) and dotmoovs (MOOV), exploded massively on a 24-hour adjusted timeframe, data on CoinGecko shows.

Nonetheless, STEPN remained the most valuable move-to-earn (M2E) project, with its market capitalization closing in on $2 billion.

*The performance of M2E tokens featuring GMT. Source: TradingView*

What's pumping GMT?

One major cue behind the GMT's price rally comes from STEPN's recent earnings report. Notably, the project made a profit of over $26.81 million from "royalty fees" and the sale of its "NFT Sneakers" in the first quarter of 2022, official data shows.

In detail, buying NFT Sneakers enables users to play STEPN, which, in turn, allows them to earn its in-game token, called the Green Satoshi Token (GST). Later, traders can exchange their GST rewards for SOL or USD Coin (USDC).

You can earn $5 for every Kilometre you run using $STEPN

I bought 20 pairs of shoes that I’m starting to rent out for free to other application users

I get 50% of the rewards from the shoes meaning passively per day i can earn $250 from 20 people running and walking 5km!
— That Martini Guy ₿ (@MartiniGuyYT) April 18, 2022

STEPN uses its profits to first buyback GMT, its governance token, from secondary markets (exchanges, over-the-counter platforms, etc.) and then burn them on-chain, effectively removing them from circulation out of the 600 million GMT in total.

Technicals signal overbought

The latest bout of buying in the GMT market has made the token overbought, according to its four-hour relative strength index (RSI) reading, which sits above 70 — a sell signal.

*GMT/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView*

Technically, GMT/USD is now testing its previous record high of $3.14 as its interim support. A move below the level raises the pair's potential of running down towards its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $2.52, about 20% below April 19's price.

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