Analyst warns of ‘leverage driven’ XRP pump as token flips Tether

December 2, 2024 Coin Telegraph

SEC appeal could amplify Ripple win, says Ripple Labs legal chief

July 26, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Stuart Alderoty says that an appeal by the Securities and Exchange Commission could see Ripple consolidate its victory over the regulator even further.

Concerns of a potential appeal by the United States securities regulator to the landmark Ripple ruling earlier this month were shrugged off by Ripple’s chief legal officer.

Stuart Alderoty believes that if the SEC takes the case to an appeal, the court could move to consolidate Ripple Labs’ partial victory over the financial regulator even further.

Speaking on a July 26 TechCrunch podcast, Alderoty reiterated his position that the XRP (XRP) token does not constitute an investment contract and that the Ripple team would not shy away from any appeal brought to the courts by the SEC.

“We think the judge got that right, and we think that was a faithful application of the law, and I think a court of appeals will not only affirm that but maybe even amplify that to even a greater extent.”

On July 13, Judge Analisa Torres ruled XRP was not a security when sold to the public on crypto exchanges but can be treated as a security when sold to institutional investors.

On July 21, the SEC used its ongoing case against Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon to air out its grievances with the ruling and hinted that it would appeal the split-decision ruling in the future.

“Respectfully, those portions of Ripple were wrongly decided, and this Court should not follow them,” SEC lawyers wrote, asserting that retail sales of XRP should have been deemed securities.

“SEC staff is considering the various available avenues for further review and intends to recommend that the SEC seek such review,” the lawyers added.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler also expressed his disappointment over the court’s decision on XRP adding the regulator would continue to assess the ruling.

In light of the ruling, Alderoty predicted if the SEC continues to claim that crypto assets themselves are securities it would begin to lose ongoing cases where the SEC attempts to make such claims.

“Our case and the decision rendered by our judge [Torres] will provide comfort to other judges that the SEC is just misguided.”

Despite his optimism, Alderoty warned the crypto sector is still a long way away from standing on solid regulatory ground. He condemned the SEC’s regulation by enforcement approach for causing crypto laws in the U.S. to fall well behind other jurisdictions.

“We still need a rational, comprehensive and understandable regulatory framework for crypto in the U.S.,” he said. “Because of the SEC’s refusal to faithfully apply the law […] the U.S. has been visibly falling behind the rest of the world.”

Currently, XRP is changing hands for around $0.70, up nearly 43% in the last month, according to Cointelegraph data.

Magazine: Crypto regulation — Does SEC Chair Gary Gensler have the final say?

XRP price risks 30% decline despite Ripple’s legal win prospects

September 19, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

The Federal Reserve's rate hike spree will likely spoil XRP's most bullish fundamentals in years.

XRP pricewas wobbling between profits and losses on Sep. 19 despite hopes that Ripple would eventually win its long-running legal battle against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Ripple and the SEC both agreed to expedite the lawsuit on Friday to get an answer on whether $XRP is a security or not.

From the updates of the case, it sounds like it’s in the favor of @Ripple pic.twitter.com/SAyl4VLxdM
— Jeff Sekinger (@JeffSekinger) September 19, 2022

Fed spoils SEC vs. Ripple euphoria

The XRP/USD pair dropped by over 1% to $0.35 while forming extremely sharp bullish and bearish wicks on its Sep. 19 daily candlestick. In other words, its intraday performance hinted at a growing bias conflict among traders.

*XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The indecisiveness could be due to XRP's exposure to catalysts other than the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit. Namely, the Federal Reserve's potential to increase its benchmark interest rates by another 75 or 100 basis points in their policy meeting on Sep. 20.

As Cointelegraph reported, fears of aggressive rate hikes have pressured the crypto market lower throughout the year, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). XRP is also not immune, given the token's consistently positive correlation with Bitcoin since October 2021.

*XRP/USD and BTC/USD daily correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView*

For instance, XRP's daily correlation coefficient with Bitcoin on Sep. 19 was 0.47. A reading of 1 means that the two assets move in lockstep.

XRP price in danger of going under $0.25 in Q4

Independent market analyst Cheds highlighted that XRP has been fluctuating inside a rectangular range since June, adding that "there's nothing to be excited about" at present.

The range is defined by $0.38-$0.40 acting as resistance and $0.28-$0.30 acting as support. XRP's price dropped after testing the resistance and, as of Sep. 19, was heading toward the support area, as shown below.

*XRP/USD daily price chart featuring head-and-shoulders setup. Source: TradingView*

Interestingly, a move toward the rectangular range support could also trigger a classic bearish reversal pattern called the head-and-shoulders, defined by three consecutive peaks forming atop a common support level, with the middle peak (head) higher than the other two (left and right shoulders).

A head-and-shoulders pattern resolves after the price breaks below its support line and falls by as much as the maximum distance between the middle peak and the support. Applying this theory to XRP's daily chart presents $0.242 as the downside target.

In other words, XRP price could lose another 30% by the end of this year, driven primarily by macro catalysts.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

XRP chart triggers sell-off warning after price explodes by 54% in one week

August 14, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bollinger bands

XRP price has bounced back from its July lows but some indicators are starting to suggest that the rally is due for a pullback.

XRP price almost surged to its three-month high following a strong uptrend continuation on Aug. 14. Nevertheless, its wild weekly run-up triggered overvaluation risks, thus raising possibilities of an imminent price pullback.

In detail, the XRP/USD exchange popped 11.78% higher to reach $1.20 for the first time since May 22. The pair's gains appeared as a part of a prevailing bullish trend that started July 20 when it was trading for as low as $0.154—a 134% upside retracement on the whole.

On a week-to-date timeframe, the XRP/USD rates were up circa 54%.

XRP overbought

The latest bullish moves in the XRP market prompted two classic indicators to forecast imminent price corrections.

The first indicator is the relative strength indicator (RSI). It represents a magnitude of price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. In detail, the RSI oscillates between zero and 100, with a reading above 70 showing overbought and a reading below 30 showing oversold conditions.

If the asset's RSI stays above 70, it typically prompts traders to sell it at higher prices to secure maximum available profits. Similarly, if the RSI dips below 30, it creates opportunities for traders to buy the asset at a seemingly lower rate.

The XRP/USD's daily RSI triggered warnings of excessive valuations after its readings crossed above 70. As a result, the pair experienced a modest sell-off near its local high of $1.20, dipping to $1.14 at the press time.

*XRP/USD daily price chart featuring RSI indicator. Source: TradingView.com*

The second indicator is Bollinger Bands.

They are envelopes plotted at a standard deviation level above and below the price's simple moving average. They tend to measure an asset's volatility based on the distance between the upper and lower band. When the price moves out of the band, it tends to immediately move back inside the band area.

*XRP/USD daily price chart featuring Bollinger Bands indicator. Source: TradingView.com*

XRP/USD's latest volatile move upside pushed its rates outside the upper band resistance, signaling overvaluation. As a result, its probability of correcting back below the upper band level appears high, which may later follow up with an extended move towards the 20-day simple moving average (orange wave) near $0.80.

Additional gains anticipated

Despite overvaluation risks, other traders believe XRP is poised to continue its bull run. For instance, independent market analyst DonAlt thinks XRP could sprint towards its all-time high merely because it has broken above a so-called resistance area, as shown in the chart below.

*XRP/USD daily chart BitFinex. Source: TradingView.com, DonAlt*

"Close above red ($1) this week and I don't see a reason for XRP to not make new ATHs," the analyst said, adding:

"But, at the same time, if it ATHS the end of the run is near."

Kevin Cage, another popular chart analyst, added a dose of fundamentals to the bullish outlook, noting that XRP at its all-time high would mean that Ripple has reached a settlement with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The U.S. securities regulator filed a lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020, alleging that the latter engaged in this illegal securities offering via the sale of XRP tokens in 2013 and afterward. Ripple denied the allegations.

On Aug. 16, Ripple will respond to the motion filed by the SEC for the discovery of "terabytes" of Slack communication data. The documents, if filed, may shed more light on whether or not Ripple sold XRP to its investors as securities.

#XRPCommunity #SECGov v. #Ripple #XRP Below is a summary of upcoming events and outstanding items. pic.twitter.com/u8I9zYb8eD
— James K. Filan (@FilanLaw) August 12, 2021

XRP price will fall to new lows vs. Bitcoin if this famous chart pattern plays out

June 25, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

XRP price bulls watch out! The popular Head and Shoulder pattern is statistically among the most accurate trend indicators.

Ripple blockchain's native token XRP could make a full bearish price swing against Bitcoin (BTC), as per a classic technical indicator.

Dubbed as Head and Shoulders (H&S), the pattern develops when an asset forms three peaks atop a common baseline. The outside peaks, known as Shoulders, are close in height, while the middle one, called the Head, is the highest.

The H&S pattern is completed when the asset breaks below its baselines support, with high volumes, confirming a negative breakout. The so-called neckline also serves as the most common entry point for bearish traders as they target deeper downside levels. Though not every time, an H&S pattern's profit target comes to be equal to the distance between the pattern's high point and its neckline.

All-time low ahead

Peter Brandt, the CEO of Factor LLC, a global trading firm he established in 1980, sees the XRP/BTC instrument painting an H&S pattern. In a tweet published early Friday, Brandt raised speculation that the bearish indicator might prompt the Ripple token to turn into "a tidal wave" against Bitcoin. The veteran trader added:

"Completion of the [H&S pattern] would set [XRP/BTC] target at all-time-lows."

*XRP has broken below the H&S neckline with strong volumes. Source: TradingView.com, Peter Brandt*

The total distance between the H&S pattern's top and its baselines comes out to be around 1,794 satoshis. Meanwhile, the neckline support coincides with 2,120 satoshis. Therefore, the profit target in XRP/BTC's case is (2,120-1,794), i.e., 326 satoshis.

Support levels ahead

But as XRP/BTC approaches its record low levels, the pair would still need to pass through a series of strong support levels.

*XRP tests 200-day simple moving average as its first line of support. Source: TradingView.com*

The XRP/BTC exchange rate bounced off its 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA; the saffron wave) support at 1,696 satoshis. Should the pair sustain above the wave, the likelihood of retesting the H&S neckline around 2,120 satoshis is high. Meanwhile, a close above 2,120 satoshis would invalidate the H&S structure.

On the other hand, breaking below 200-day SMA exposes XRP/BTC to the next line of support near 1,555 satoshis. The level was instrumental in pushing the pair up by more than 170% in November 2020. Nonetheless, its Volume Profile shows a weaker trading activity in recent history, raising possibilities that it won't be able to handle strong selling volumes as the H&S breakout accelerates.

The last line of defense, as per the Volume Profile indicator, sits at 847 satoshis, more than twice above the H&S profit target of 326 satoshis.

XRP/USD

Against the US dollar, XRP continued trending lower in its months-old descending channel pattern, while promising short-term upside opportunities.

*XRP bounced off its lower descending channel support on June 22. Source: TradingView.com*

The XRP/USD rebounded by up to 44.53% after testing the Channel's support trendline on June 22. The pair's move uphill had it test $0.69 as its interim resistance as bulls targeted an extended push towards $0.78.

$XRP

Reclaiming $0.63 is cool but $0.79 will be the real test.

Let's see if $BTC allows price to even get close to $0.79 in the short term... pic.twitter.com/PhHR7OJCQQ
— Posty (@PostyXBT) June 25, 2021

The $0.69-level has served as the resistance between November 2020 and April 2021. Meanwhile, the $0.78-level capped XRP/USD from extending its downside bias throughout May 2021.

Ripple Price