1. Home
  2. Short Selling

Short Selling

Year-End Launch of Bitcoin ETF Options Could Lead to Price Drops

Year-End Launch of Bitcoin ETF Options Could Lead to Price DropsAnalysts and market observers anticipate that options trading for U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could kick off before year-end. While there’s considerable buzz around these new investment avenues, the introduction of options trading might bring strategies that could temper bitcoin’s market price. Crypto ETF Options Likely by Q4 2024, But Bitcoin and Ether Prices […]

A Theoretical Look at What Could Happen If Trump Creates a US Bitcoin Reserve

Silvergate CEO calls out ‘short sellers’ spreading misinformation

In the statement, Lane also took the opportunity to "set the record straight” about its investment relationship with FTX and the firm's “robust risk management approach.”

Silvergate Capital CEO Alan Lane has slammed “short sellers” and “other opportunists” for spreading misinformation over the last few weeks — just to score themselves a quick buck. 

In a Dec. 5 public letter, Lane said there was “plenty of speculation – and misinformation” being spread by these parties to “capitalize on market uncertainty” caused in part to FTX’s catastrophic collapse in November.

His crypto-focused bank was recently forced to deny one of these so-called FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) campaigns last week when there was speculation that the firm was exposed to the bankrupt crypto lender BlockFi.

Lane also used the latest letter to the public as an “opportunity to set the record straight” about its investment relationship with FTX, as well as the company’s “robust risk management approach.”

Lane reiterated that the firm complies with the Bank Secrecy Act and the USA PATRIOT Act, which requires it to monitor and scrutinize “each and every account,” including FTX and Alameda research.

“Silvergate conducted significant due diligence on FTX and its related entities including Alameda Research, both during the onboarding process and through ongoing monitoring,” the CEO explained.

The CEO has also touted the firm’s “resilient balance sheet and ample liquidity” adding that customers’ deposits are “safely held.”

“In addition to the cash we carry on our balance sheet, our entire investment securities portfolio can be pledged for borrowings at the Federal Home Loan Bank, other financial institutions, and the Federal Reserve Discount Window – and can ultimately be sold should we need to generate liquidity to satisfy customer withdrawal request,” explained Lane.

Related: Block.one and its CEO become largest Silvergate Capital shareholders

Silvergate has also been the focus of other speculation in recent weeks, including CFA-issued accountant and former portfolio manager Genevieve Roch-Decter, who expressed doubt in a Dec. 1 post whether Silvergate could maintain its liquidity position and pondered whether it could suffer from its close relationship with FTX.

Roch-Decter was also concerned with Silvergate’s Bitcoin-collateralized loan position, which could impact the firm’s balance sheet if Bitcoin’s (BTC) price continues to fall.

She also expressed worry that should the firm’s Silvergate Exchange Network — a network used by highly used crypto exchanges to send U.S. dollars and Euros between accounts — was compromised, it could “drag down the entire system.”

Lane confirmed in the statement that Silvergate “customers continue to have access to their U.S. dollar deposits when they need them and that Silvergate Exchange Network (SEN) has continued to operate uninterrupted throughout this period.”

“We intentionally carry cash and securities in excess of our digital asset-related deposit liabilities,” the CEO added.

Lane’s public letter did little to stem the bleeding of Silvergate’s (SI) share price, which fell 8.49% to $24.24 on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Monday, according to MarketWatch.

Silvergate’s stock is now down 52.43% over the last thirty days and decreased 85.34% over the last 12 months.

A Theoretical Look at What Could Happen If Trump Creates a US Bitcoin Reserve

126% return for stock market short-sellers who smelled blood in crypto waters

A report from S3 Partners noted that crypto stocks with the highest short interest include Coinbase, Marathon Digital and MicroStrategy.

Short-sellers have made a killing on various sectors of the U.S. stock market this year, but no other sector "held a candle” to the blockchain industry, with crypto company short-sellers profits up 126% in 2022, according new data.

On Thursday, technology and data analytics firm S3 Partners published a video summarizing its recent report, which found that overall, U.S. equity short-sellers are up on average more than 30% for the year.

Some of these profit gains were attributed to the short-selling of automobiles and components stocks (up 54%), software and services stocks (up 50%), media and entertainment stocks (up 46%) and retail stocks, (up 46%) in the year, though these all paled in comparison to crypto stocks, which saw short-selling profits up 126% in 2022.

“But none of these industries holds a candle to short sellers in the crypto sector, up 126% on an average short interest of $3 billion dollars.”

Crypto stocks with the highest short interest include exchange Coinbase Global (COIN), Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), and MicroStrategy (MSTR), a software company that is also known for being the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin.

Short selling occurs when an investor borrows a security and sells it on the open market with the expectation to buy it back in the future for less, pocketing the difference. This is profitable when prices decline. 

Short interest is the total number of shares of a particular stock that has been short-sold by investors but has not yet been covered or closed out. High or increasing short interest could indicate that investors are pessimistic about a certain stock.

At the time of writing, Coinbase stocks are down 79.67% year-to-date (YTD), Marathon Digital is down 80.02% YTD, and MicroStrategy is down 71.10% YTD, according to Google Finance.

However, S3 Partners says that while the pace of crypto short-selling has remained high, with $71 million of new short-selling over the time period, the pool of stock available to borrow is drying up — meaning that “prospective short sellers may be late to the party.”

“With stock borrower utilization at 91%, short sales in size may be difficult to execute, and borrow rates may make it expensive for new and existing short sales.”

Utilization is measured by the number of loaned shares divided by the available shares in the securities lending market, with a high utilization rate indicating that the demand for the stock from short sellers is elevated. 

On Tuesday, S3 Partners’ managing director of predictive analytics Ihor Dusaniwsky told his 82,000 Twitter followers that Coinbase’s short interest reached $1.52 billion on June 14, whilst MicroStrategy's short interest hit $689 million. Marathon Digital Holdings' short interest amounted to $181 million.

Related: Further downside is expected, but multiple data points suggest Bitcoin is undervalued

The falling prices of crypto stocks accompany the crash in crypto prices and the downturn in traditional markets amid sharp interest rate hikes and high inflation.

On Thursday the price of Bitcoin fell to $20,205 as rumors swirled of a possible collapse of crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC).

The recent price movements have prompted some analysts to believe a very long consolidation and accumulation period for the crypto market is to come.

A Theoretical Look at What Could Happen If Trump Creates a US Bitcoin Reserve

Neutrino Dollar breaks peg, falls to $0.82 amid WAVES price ‘manipulation’ accusations

Waves founder Sasha Ivanov says Alameda Research is behind the ongoing WAVES price decline.

Neutrino Dollar (USDN), a stablecoin issued through Waves-backed Neutrino protocol, lost its U.S. dollar-peg on April 4 amid speculations that it could become "insolvent" in the future.

USDN plunges 15% despite WAVES backing

USDN dropped to as low as $0.822 on April 4 with its market capitalization also diving to $824.25 million, down 14% from its year-to-date high of $960.25 million.

Interestingly, the stablecoin's plunge occurred despite Neutrino's claims of backing its $1-peg via what's called "over collateral," i.e., when the total value of Waves (WAVES) tokens locked inside its smart contract is higher than the total USDN minted, also called the "backing ratio."

Neutrino Dollar price performance in the last 24 hours. Source: CoinMarketCap

Notably, Neutrino smart contract's backing ratio came out to be 2.62 on April 4, according to official data, underscoring that it had adequate funds to back USDN's dollar-peg by 1:1; that is, despite WAVES' 35%-plus drop in the last five days.

Price manipulation

WAVES' price dropped from its record high near $64 on March 31 to as low as $47 on April 4. The coin started declining as its momentum indicator, the relative strength index (RSI), jumped above 70 — an "overbought" area that typically triggers selling sentiment.

WAVES/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Nonetheless, the selloff occurred also as a pseudonymous analyst accused Waves of artificially pumping WAVES by 750% in the last two months by:

1) collateralizing USDN to borrow USD Coin (USDC) on the Vires.Finance lending platform;

2) using the proceeds to purchase WAVES;

3) converting the tokens to USDN, and 

4) redeploying them into the Vires.Finance pool to borrow more USDC.

The analyst also said that a decisive WAVES' price crash would make USDN insolvent.

Waves founder Sasha Ivanov, however, denied the allegations on April 3, noting that one cannot move markets of more than $1 billion daily volume by borrowing a few million.

He further accused Alameda Research, a quantitative crypto trading firm headed by FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried, of launching a campaign "fueled by a crowd of paid trolls" against WAVES to honor their short positions on the coin.

Related: Here’s how traders were alerted to RUNE’s, FUN’s, WAVES’ and KNC’s big rallies last week

From a technical perspective, WAVES holds its bullish bias above the confluence of two support levels: the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA; the green wave) around $40 and the 0.382 Fib line near $42.50.

Conversely, a decisive break below the support confluence could risk crashing WAVES toward $30.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

A Theoretical Look at What Could Happen If Trump Creates a US Bitcoin Reserve