SOL/USD

‘I just bought SOL’ — Arthur Hayes after Solana price rebounds 500%

November 2, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Hayes may face short-term losses on his Solana buy-in, but the long-term upside looks promising as the cryptocurrency market recovers.

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, has “admitted” to buying Solana’s SOL (SOL) at its possible local top, stressing his bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency.

Fam I have something embarrassing I must admit.

I just bot $SOL, I know its a Sam-coin piece of dogshit L1 that at this point is just a meme. But it is going up, and I'm a degen.

Let's Fucking Go!
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 2, 2023

SOL’s price has rallied 500% in 11 months

Hayes’ self-admitted SOL purchase occurred after it had already rebounded 500% from its market bottom near $8 in December 2022.

In addition, the purchase came days after VanEck, an asset management firm supervising $76.4 billion worth of assets, predicted a 10,600% SOL price rally by 2030, citing Solana’s ability to capture the market share of its top layer-1 blockchain rival, Ethereum.

In addition, an analyst from FieryTrading predicted that once Solana breaks the resistance at $38, it could be headed for another 150% increase.

In October 2023 alone, SOL price gained an impressive 80% and recently reached its 14-month high of around $46.75.

*SOL/USD year-to-date price performance. Source: TradingView*

Hayes appeared to have bought SOL around the same $46.75 level. He expects the price to continue rising in the coming weeks, perhaps drawing his “degen” cues from Solana’s ongoing scalability efforts.

Solana most “overbought” since January

However, technical and fundamental signals are warning of a potential 30% price drop in November.

Notably, SOL’s relentless uptrend in recent months has pushed its daily relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator, to its most overbought levels since January 2023. From a technical standpoint, overbought RSI readings prompt the underlying assets to correct or consolidate.

In SOL’s case, the possibility of undergoing a sharp correction in November looks more likely. That is primarily due to a fractal analysis, which shows SOL’s overbought RSIs preceding 35%–50% price corrections throughout 2023, as shown below.

*SOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

If this bear scenario happens, the next downside target appears to be around its June–November 2022 support level near $30.25, down about 30% from current prices.

*SOL/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

Interestingly, this level coincides with SOL’s 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave in the chart above). A break below it could have SOL bears test the cryptocurrency’s ascending trendline support near $26 as their next downside target.

The $26 target, down about 37.50% from current price levels, was instrumental in capping SOL’s downside attempts in June 2022.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Solana (SOL) price is poised for a potential 95% crash — Here’s why

August 16, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

SOL price gained 75% in the past two months, but technical analysis suggests it could be an elaborate bull trap.

Solana (SOL) price rallied by approximately 75% two months after bottoming out locally near $25.75, but the token's splendid upside move is at risk of a complete wipeout due to an ominous bearish technical indicator.

A major SOL crash setup surfaces

Dubbed a "head-and-shoulders (H&S)," the pattern appears when the price forms three consecutive peaks atop a common resistance level (called the neckline). Notably, the middle peak (head) comes to be higher than the other two shoulders, which are of almost equal height.

Head and shoulders patterns resolve after the price breaks below their neckline. In doing so, the price falls by as much as the distance between the head's peak and the neckline when measured from the breakdown point, per a rule of technical analysis.

It appears SOL has been forming a similar bearish setup on its longer-timeframe charts.

*SOL/USD weekly price chart featuring H&S breakdown. Source: TradingView*

On the weekly chart, the token has been forming the right shoulder of the overall pattern, suggesting a correction toward the neckline at $27 during the second half of 2022. Meanwhile, a breakdown below $27 could result in an extended correction toward $2.80.

In other words, a 95% price decline by the end of 2022 or early 2023, a setup also projected by pseudonymous analyst "PROFIT BLUE."

I will leave this here, now that it looks better.. #Solana pic.twitter.com/w03Y4Ffl8o
— PROFIT BLUE (@profit8lue) August 14, 2022

Is this a bear market rally?

Solana's extremely eerie bearish setup appears as it closely tails trends across risk-on markets, mainly driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish response to inflationary pressures.

For instance, SOL closed the week ending Aug. 14 at a 10.5% profit, similar to Bitcoin (BTC) and the benchmark S&P 500 index. These markets reacted to a softer-than-anticipated U.S. consumer price index (CPI), raising possibilities that the Fed would slow the pace of its interest rate hikes.

*SOL/USD and S&P 500 daily correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView*

But many analysts have warned about these ongoing price rallies in the risky corners of the market, citing pieces of historical evidence of similar bear market bounces. So, SOL's 75% rebound risks turn into a fakeout if its correlation with riskier assets remains positive.

From a fundamental perspective, Solana also faces extreme FUD due to its recurring network outages and rumored centralization. However, the project's backers have introduced new upgrades to fix these issues, as Cointelegraph discussed.

But even then, a 95% price crash is too "wild," suggests market analyst IncomeSharks, saying that it would mean Solana is a rug pull project like Terra (LUNA) — now Terra Classic (LUNC).

The next big drop could have SOL explore bounce opportunities near a multi-year ascending support trendline, as shown below.

In other words, SOL's bearish continuation could last until its price hits $20, down over 55% from August 16's price.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ominous Solana technicals hint at SOL price crashing 35% by September

August 13, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

Solana is tailing broader crypto market trends while battling concerns about repeated network outages and centralization.

Solana (SOL) risks a significant price correction in the coming weeks owing to a classic bearish reversal setup.

A 35% SOL price correction ahead?

On the three-day chart, SOL's price has been painting a rising wedge, confirmed by two ascending, converging trendlines and falling trading volumes in parallel.

Rising wedges typically result in breakdown, resolving after the asset's price break below the lower trendline. If the price follows the breakdown scenario, it could fall by as much as the maximum distance between the wedge's upper and lower trendline.

SOL is far from a breakdown but trades within a falling wedge range, as shown in the chart below. The token eyes an immediate pullback from the wedge's upper trendline with its interim downside target sitting at the lower trendline around $45.

It will risk falling toward $30 if the price breaks below the lower trendline while accompanying a rise in trading volumes. In other words, a 35% price drop by September.

Conversely, a bounce from the lower trendline could have SOL eye an immediate rebound toward the wedge's apex point at around $53.50.

A decisive breakout above the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish reversal setup, if SOL rises to the 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) near $58.

$SOL daily close above $45

Entered 25% size (bear market size)

will stop with close under $42 otherwise targeting $56-60 https://t.co/US0ucViHN6 pic.twitter.com/xo7zfDGMrZ
— Pentoshi (leading cattle to butcher) (@Pentosh1) August 13, 2022

Battling FUD

Solana's rising wedge breakdown setup appears as it battles a flurry of negative events, including repeated network outages, centralization concerns and a widespread exploit that targeted Solana wallets.

Nevertheless, SOL rallied nearly 40% in August, mirroring other crypto assets that gained around 11% month-to-date on average.

A part of Solana's gains also after its team quickly clarified that Slope, a Web3 wallet provider, was solely responsible for the $8 million exploit of crypto wallets, including Solana's.

After an investigation by developers, ecosystem teams, and security auditors, it appears affected addresses were at one point created, imported, or used in Slope mobile wallet applications. 1/2
— Solana Status (@SolanaStatus) August 3, 2022

Similarly, Solana released its first "Validator Health Report" on Aug. 10 in response to accusations that its network is heavily centralized. It reported that Solana's proof-of-history (PoH) blockchain has over 1,900 block-producing nodes worldwide.

Nearly 88% of those nodes are operated by independent entities, the report added.

Additionally, in May, Solana developers focused on implementing the early stages of their Mainnet Beta v1.10 series, introducing QUIC and Quality of Service (QoS) packets by stake weight and fee prioritization to defend the network against potential outages.

"It appears that the network showed signs of stabilization post-v1.10 as lower transaction fees occurred and the daily transaction count reversed the trend between the middle of May and the end of June," noted James Trautman, a researcher at Messari, in his Solana Q2 report.

*Solana network usage. Source: Messari/Solscan*

Solana's transactions per second (TPS) also improved, from as low as ~700 during network outages to all-time highs above 3,000 after v1.10 began to roll out. Trautman added:

"If implementations of v1.10 and subsequent versions continue to drive stability along with successful ecosystem growth strategies, fundamentals will likely move in a positive direction, and network value may too."

Solana eyes 40% jump in August despite long-term bearish signals

July 26, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

The bear flag setup for SOL price could result in another interim relief rally amid macro headwinds.

Solana (SOL) dipped to a two-week low at around $35.50 on July 26, mirroring downside moves elsewhere in the crypto market. Nonetheless, technicals suggests that Solana's price flirts with the prospects of rising 40% in August.

SOL hits key inflection point

Ironically, the bullish setup for Solana emerges out of a classic bearish continuation pattern.

On the daily chart, SOL's price has been consolidating inside what appears to be a "bear flag," a technical pattern that develops during a downtrend and gets resolved after the instrument exits it with further price drops.

The so-called bear flag breakdown has not happened yet. Instead, SOL has been holding the lower trendline as support, raising possibilities of a sharp rebound toward the upper trendline, as illustrated in the chart below.

*SOL/USD daily price chart featuring 'bear flag.' Source: TradingView*

The rebound setup exposes SOL to a potential rally toward $49.50 in August, up 40% from today's price. The $49-$50 level had served as both support and resistance in May.

Solana network performance still a concern — researcher

The potential bear flag rebound will serve as interim relief to Solana bulls, given SOL's overall bias remains skewed to the downside.

Macro forces such as the Fed's hawkish monetary policies and the collapse of the $40 billion "algorithmic stablecoin" project Terra have sent the crypto market into a tailspin. As a result, Solana, like any other risky asset, has suffered declines across its financial and network usage metrics in 2022.

For instance, the average number of daily transactions atop the Solana blockchain plunged by 17.6% in Q2/2022 versus the previous quarter, according to data from Messari.

Meanwhile, Solana's revenue dropped 44.4% quarter-on-quarter (also because of recurring network outages).

*Solana Financial Overview Q2/2022. Source: Messari*

"As seen in 2021 and throughout Q1 and Q2, degraded network performance decreases network usage and reduces the network’s continued flow of revenue," noted James Trautman, a researcher at Messari, adding:

"If Solana were to continue to experience degraded performance that lasts for a material amount of time, a resulting drag on fundamental usage may catalyze volatility and drag on network value."

Bear flag breakdown?

The mix of macro and network-related concerns risk triggering the bear flag breakdown by September.

SOL's decisive close below the flag's lower trendline means more downside is likely to the $21-$23 region, according to the technical setup illustrated below.

*SOL/USD daily price chart featuring bear flag breakdown setup. Source: TradingView*

In other words, a 35%-38% drop from current price levels.

Solana price enters correction territory after 80% monthly gains

July 20, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

SOL's bear flag setup sees its price declining to $21 by September 2022.

Solana (SOL) ticked modestly lower on July 20 after testing a critical technical resistance, suggesting further pullback moves in the coming weeks.

SOL price eyes 50% wipeout

SOL's price decreased by over 4% to $44 after failing to breach a multi-week ascending trendline resistance. Interestingly, this resistance level comes as a part of what appears to be a bearish continuation pattern dubbed the "bear flag."

A previous test of the same resistance trendline in late June had preceded a 30%-plus price drop, illustrating a higher distribution sentiment among SOL traders near the level. Therefore, the latest pullback from the same range could lead to an extended downside retracement.

Meanwhile, the bear flag's lower trendline has been capping SOL's sharp pullback moves. As a result, SOL's extended correction scenario could have its price hit the support level, now near $35.40 — a 20% drop from current price levels.

Additionally, a decisive close below the lower trendline would risk triggering the bear flag breakdown setup, wherein the price falls by as much as the height of the downtrend (called "flagpole") that preceded the flag's formation.

*SOL/USD daily price chart featuring "bear flag" breakdown scenario. Source: TradingView*

That puts SOL on the road to levels near $21 by September, down over 50% from today's price.

What experts are saying about Solana

The bear flag setup appears after SOL's 80%-plus price rally since June 14, primarily driven by a similar recovery across the crypto market.

For instance, Ether (ETH), Solana's top rival in the smart contract space, has risen over 85% more than a month after bottoming out locally at $880. Similarly, Bitcoin (BTC) is up 35% in the same period.

*SOL/USD and BTC/USD daily correlation coefficient at 0.97. Source: TradingView*

Independent market analyst Altcoin Sherpa sees SOL's price rising to the $60-$80 area in 2022 if Bitcoin continues to climb.

Conversely, Andrey Diyakonov, chief commercial officer at Choise, notes that demand for SOL could drop due to Ethereum's transition to proof-of-stake in September.

"The new Ethereum protocol has the same advantages as Solana, and investors may choose to stick with Ethereum should the high gas fees and scalability woes be solved," Diyakonov explained.

Paweł Łaskarzewski, co-CEO at Synapse Network, fears SOL's ongoing price rally could be a bull trap, noting that SOL, alongside the rest of the crypto market, still faces macro hurdles led by higher inflation and rising lending rates.

He said:

"We might see small ups on the price of Solana but due to the current market state, I would not expect any big changes"

Solana funds add $110.8M in 2022

Meanwhile, institutional interest in Solana continues to look better compared to Ethereum, according to CoinShares' latest weekly report.

*Net flows into crypto funds in 2022 (by assets). Source: CoinShares*

Notably, Solana-backed funds have attracted $110.8 million into its coffers since the beginning of this year. In comparison, Ethereum-based investment vehicles have witnessed withdrawals worth $446.1 million from their reserves in the same period, including $2.5 million in the week ending July 15.

3 reasons why Solana can repeat Ethereum’s 2018 fractal to 5,000% gains

July 11, 2022 Coin Telegraph

$<div>3 reasons why Solana can repeat Ethereum's 2018 fractal to 5,000% gains</div>$

Altcoin

Solana's price can mimic Ethereum's impressive recovery after the 2018 bear market, analysts argue.

Solana (SOL) still has room to fall in the near term, but SOL/USD can rally 5,000% if it follows in the footsteps of its top rival Ethereum.

That Ethereum 2018 fractal

SOL risks dropping to $15 on anticipations it would behave like Ethereum during the market crash in 2018.

Notably, Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) price fell to nearly $79 in December 2018 after undergoing a 95% correction earlier that year from its peak of $1,529. Afterward, it underwent a long recovery, rising nearly 6,000% over the next four years and thus hitting a record high of around $4,950 in November 2022.

*ETH/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

Solana, which rivals Ethereum for its top spot in the smart contracts sector, has fallen by over 85% after peaking out in November 2021 at nearly $267. That leaves the token with the room to fall by another 10% when measured from its said record high.

Popular analyst PostyXBT says SOL could decline to $15, thus mirroring Ethereum's bear cycle in 2018. What's more, the Solana token could see an Ethereum-like recovery in the coming years that could take SOL price to over $750, he adds.

$ETH did a ~60x from the 2018 lows despite many people calling for it to hit zero...

If $SOL drops to $15 I think a ~50x is on the cards whilst people call for it to nuke to zero.

For those who question the functionality issues and outages, remember that hype always wins.
— Posty (@PostyXBT) July 11, 2022

Meanwhile, another popular analyst, Spencer Noon, thinks on the same lines, albeit without sharing a clear upside target.

Noon argues that Solana has been going through a "disillusionment" phase that plagued the Ethereum market in 2018, noting that the project would eventually overcome its difficulties.

"Solana has a vibrant developer ecosystem, and its downtime issues are solvable. This will be obvious in retrospect," he said.

Solana funds attract $110M in 2022

Solana-based investment funds have attracted over $110 million in inflows in 2022 as of July 1, compared to $450.9 million that exited Ethereum funds, according to a recent weekly report by CoinShares.

*Net inflows into/out of crypto funds by assets. Source: CoinShares*

The fund inflows appear as Solana's market capitalization gradually creeps toward Ethereum's following its launch in March 2020.

The Ethereum/Solana market cap ratio is currently around 32.5 versus the December 2020 peak of 525.3, according to data tracked by TradingView.

*ETH/USD to SOL/USD market cap ratio. Source: TradingView*

The metrics suggests a strong capital shift into the Solana ecosystem, a trend that may continue in the coming years.

NFT volume

Solana is also posing a serious challenge to Ethereum based on other key metrics.

For instance, according to Nansen, Solana's weekly volumes across major nonfungible token (NFT) marketplaces, including OpenSea and MagicEden, have been in a constant uptrend, whereas Ethereum's have tapered off in recent months.

*Ethereum NFT volume (left) versus Solana's (right). Source: Nansen*

Solana fees vs. Ethereum

Additionally, cheaper fees are the primary reason why NFT volumes on the Solana blockchain have risen compared to Ethereum, according to Arcane Research's latest weekly report.

"The pace of the Ethereum blockchain network has decreased while transaction costs have increased, making way for Solana-based NFT marketplaces to pick up steam," the report noted, adding:

"The average transaction fee on Ethereum was $6.5 in June, in contrast to the few cents users currently pay for block space on Solana.

Similar to NFT volume, the amount of gas fees paid has also seen a strong uptrend since summer 2021 with a smaller drawdown from its peak.

Daily Gas Paid Ethereum vs Solana$ETH $SOL pic.twitter.com/FJTibaEkVG
— Whis (@whisz7) July 11, 2022

SOL price eyes 75% rally as Solana paints a bullish reversal pattern

June 28, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Blockchain

SOL's interim upside target is near $47, up about 20% from its current price.

Solana (SOL) continued its recovery trend on June 28 while inching closer to triggering a classic bullish reversal setup.

SOL's price gained 2.42%, reaching an intraday high of $39.40/ The SOL/USD pair is now up 50% as a part of a broader retracement move that began on June 14 after falling to lows of $26.

Solana price eyes 75% rally

The latest buying period in the Solana market has been painting what appears to be an "inverse head and shoulders pattern (IH&S)" pattern.

The bullish reversal setup appears when the price forms three troughs in a row below a common support trendline called "neckline." The middle trough, known as "head," is always deeper than the other two troughs, called shoulders.

An IH&S setup resolves after the price breaks above the neckline level. Also, as a rule of technical analysis, the pattern's profit target comes to be at length equal to the maximum distance between the head's lowest tip and the neckline.

*SOL/USD daily price chart featuring IH&S pattern. Source: TradingView*

Suppose SOL breaks above its neckline resistance of $41.50. Then, the chances of continuing the bullish retracement stand around 83.5%, with its upside target sitting at over $68, about 75% above today's price.

Interim resistance levels

Solana's road to $68 could face hurdles in a confluence of technical resistance levels, including its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) and a support-turned-resistance line. Both resistance levels are around $47.

SOL remains at risk of exhausting its IH&S breakout, which, in turn, could trigger a "bear flag" setup. A pullback from the $47-resistance-level, coinciding with the flag's upper trendline, could lead to a breakdown, as shown in the chart below.

*SOL/USD daily price chart featuring 'bear flag' pattern. Source: TradingView*

As a result, SOL's downside target comes to be approximately inside the $23-$30 range, depending on its breakdown point.

In a similar setup, independent market analyst PostyXBT anticipated SOL's price to reach $47.

$SOL idea

- Higher low & S/R flip
- $BTC still hasn't pushed higher to $23k
- Play the short term trend until invalidated

- Declining volume a concern

Not rushing into an entry at current price. If I don't get filled slightly lower, so be it. pic.twitter.com/IgZbeBAq40
— Posty (@PostyXBT) June 28, 2022

Nonetheless, declining volumes remain a concern, so traders should play the short-term trend until further bullish confirmation, he added. In other words, SOL's likelihood of returning lower is high after reaching $47.

Solana also down 85% from pe

Like most crypto assets, Solana has lost a significant chunk of its valuation compared to its November 2021 peak, down over 85% now.

Additionally, Solana's "decentralization" has also faced increasing scrutiny amid repeated network outages and a recent attempt to take control of a whale's wallet via community voting to force liquidation.

Absolute comedy. @solendprotocol, a supposed “decentralized” lending protocol built on Solana has “voted” to take over a whales account with emergency powers to eliminate the chance of forced liquidation.

“Decentralized” in name only. pic.twitter.com/Vrua3dFoES
— Dylan LeClair (@DylanLeClair_) June 19, 2022

On the other hand, some anticipate Solana's ecosystem to grow just like its top rival Ethereum did after the 2018 bear market. That includes Spencer Noon, the co-founder of crypto-focused Variant Fund, who said:

"Solana has a vibrant developer ecosystem and its downtime issues are solvable. This will be obvious in retrospect."

SOL price trending toward yearly low as Solana TVL drops $870M in three days

June 16, 2022 Coin Telegraph

SOL price trending toward yearly low as Solana TVL drops 0M in three days

Altcoin

DeFi contagion fears and bearish technicals mean additional downside pressure on Solana price.

Solana (SOL) tumbled on June 16 amid a broader retreat across the top cryptocurrencies, led by the Federal Reserve's 0.75% interest rate hike a day before.

Solana price rebound fizzles

Notably, SOL/USD plunged nearly 17% to $30 a token, wiping almost all the gains from the day before. The SOL price volatility liquidated almost $10 million worth of contracts in the past 24 hours across multiple crypto exchanges, data from Coinglass shows.

*SOL liquidation record since May 17. Source: Coinglass*

The latest declines come as an extension to SOL's broader correction, where it dropped by more than 90% after peaking out near $267 in November 2021. SOL also fell to its lowest level since July 2021 near $25.

In addition, a higher interest rate environment and the collapse of high-profile crypto projects like Terra have strengthened SOL's downside prospects.

SOL paints "ascending triangle"

Solana's pullback move on June 16 began after testing a horizontal trendline resistance near $34 that constitutes what appears to be an "ascending triangle" pattern.

Ascending triangles are continuation patterns, i.e., they tend to send the price in the direction of their previous trend. As a rule, breaking out of a triangle pattern in a bearish market, for example, sends the price down by as much as the structure's maximum height.

If SOL breaks below its ascending triangle's lower trendline then the bearish profit target will come below $22.50, as shown in the chart below.

*SOL/USD four-hour price chart featuring "ascending triangle" pattern. Source: TradingView*

Solana's downside target is about 25% below today's price and could be achieved by June. Nonetheless, if SOL bounces after testing the triangle's lower trendline as support, it would eye the $34-36 range as its interim upside target.

Massive SOL exit

Over 27 million Solana tokens have exited its smart contract ecosystem since June 13.

The total value locked (TVL) inside Solana smart contracts dropped to 74.65 million SOL (~$2.25 billion) on June 16, down 27% in the last three days, according to data tracked by DeFi Llama. That amounts to nearly $840 million of withdrawals from the ninth-largest blockchain ecosystem by market cap.

*Solana TVL performance since April 2021. Source: DeFi Llama*

Solend, a lending platform functioning atop the Solana ledger, witnessed a 26.5% decline in its TVL in the last three days and was holding 9.66 million SOL (~$290 million) as of June 16. Nevertheless, it remains the leading platform by TVL within the Solana ecosystem.

The outflows indicate that depositors do not want to keep their SOL locked in DeFi protocols, a sentiment common across the sector after Terra, an "algorithmic stablecoin" project, collapsed last month.

Contagion, another yield ponzi going down.

Seriously get your coins off anything like Celsius and BlockFi before they aren't your coins anymore.

LFG, 3AC, Celcius etc all spread risk to each other and you pay the price for it https://t.co/cemFCvAeAz
— Pentoshi Powell Jr (@Pentosh1) June 16, 2022

Therefore, Solana's path of least resistance remains skewed to the downside in the near term, particularly with no improvement in terms of macro and fundamentals.

Solana price just one breakdown away from a 40% slide in June — here’s why

June 10, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Network outages and decreasing smart contract reserves add further downside pressure to SOL price.

Solana (SOL) is nearing a decisive breakdown moment as it inches towards the apex of its prevailing "descending triangle" pattern.

SOL's 40% price decline setup

Notably, SOL's price has been consolidating inside a range defined by a falling trendline resistance and horizontal trendline support, which appears like a descending triangle—a trend continuation pattern.

Therefore, since SOL has been trending lower, down about 85% from its November 2021 peak of $267, its likelihood of breaking below the triangle range is higher.

As a rule of technical analysis, a breakdown move followed by the formation of a descending triangle could last until the price has fallen by as much as the triangle's maximum height. This puts SOL's bearish price target at $22.50 in June, down about 40% from today's price.

*SOL/USD daily price chart featuring "descending triangle" breakdown setup. Source: TradingView*

But not all descending triangles lead to breakdowns, suggests a study conducted by Samurai Trading Academy. Notably, the likelihood of a descending triangle setup reaching its profit target is 7 out of 10, based on the pattern's history.

So that leaves SOL with a roughly 30% chance of avoiding a breakdown and rebounding.

Solana's rebound scenario

Descending triangles that form during downtrends but still lead to price reversals typically mark the bottom of the asset's bearish cycle.

Suppose SOL holds strong above the triangle's horizontal trendline support. Then, the SOL/USD pair could break above the structure's falling trendline resistance, and rise by as much as its maximum height, which puts its upside target around $65, up about 72% from today's price.

*SOL/USD daily price chart featuring descending triangle reversal setup. Source: TradingView*

The descending triangle's bullish profit target also coincides with SOL's 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $59.

Meanwhile, SOL's daily relative strength index (RSI), which has been reversing from its oversold threshold of 30 since May 12, also boosts the token's upside prospects.

$SOL

Could go up, could go down vibes

great analysis bruh pic.twitter.com/q6VCBsTXJL
— Posty (@PostyXBT) June 10, 2022

Solana TVL drops 75% from peak

Meanwhile, Solana's fundamentals are mixed.

As a blockchain network, it had performed poorly in recent months due to back-to-back outages. While the total value locked (TVL) inside Solana's smart contracts has crashed to $3.69 billion, down 75% from its December 2021's record high of $14.83 billion, data from Defi Llama shows.

*Solana TVL performance history. Source: Defi Llama*

On the bright side, Solana experienced sustained growth in network usage, developer activity, network infrastructure, and overall ecosystem in the first quarter of 2022, according to a study penned by James Trautman, a researcher at U.S.-based crypto analytics firm Messari.

Excerpts:

"Several factors contributed to the Q1 results, including the continued growth of new NFTs and NFT markets, diversification of TVL, improvements in UX, and new applications across several sectors outside of DeFi.

On June 8, Solana's venture capital arm launched a $100 million investment and grant fund to support its blockchain-based products in South Korea, a country whose crypto sector stands damaged by the recent collapse of Terra, a $40 billion "algorithmic stablecoin" project.

The decision expects to attract developers that want to migrate their projects from Terra to Solana, which could lead to a higher demand for SOL.

Technical Analysis: SOL, LUNA and AVAX All Down on Friday

February 18, 2022 Bitcoin.com

SOL’s price has rallied 500% in 11 months

Solana most “overbought” since January

A major SOL crash setup surfaces

Is this a bear market rally?

A 35% SOL price correction ahead?

Battling FUD

SOL hits key inflection point

Solana network performance still a concern — researcher

Bear flag breakdown?

SOL price eyes 50% wipeout

What experts are saying about Solana

Solana funds add $110.8M in 2022

That Ethereum 2018 fractal

Solana funds attract $110M in 2022

NFT volume

Solana fees vs. Ethereum

Solana price eyes 75% rally

Interim resistance levels

Solana also down 85% from pe

Solana price rebound fizzles

SOL paints "ascending triangle"

Massive SOL exit

SOL's 40% price decline setup

Solana's rebound scenario

Solana TVL drops 75% from peak

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