Coinbase (COIN), Microstrategy (MSTR) and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) All Soar in Price As Crypto Heats Up

October 24, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Bitcoin price surge brings BTC-related stocks to new multi-week highs

October 24, 2023 Coin Telegraph

MicroStrategy the largest Bitcoin-holding public company saw its unrealized gains on its BTC investment reach near the $1B mark as the company’s stocks gained nearly 9% on the day.

The Bitcoin (BTC) price surge on Monday has now catapulted Bitcoin-related stocks to surge to new highs with the likes of Coinbase and Microstrategy posting new multi-week highs.

Bitcoin mining stocks saw significant gains amid the BTC price momentum with the likes of United States-listed Riot Blockchain recording an 11.69% surge followed by Marathon Digital Holdings at a 14.6% increase. Another factor that played a key role in the mining stocks surge is the upcoming halving event that will cut the Bitcoin mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

*Marathon Digital stock price chart. Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin mining stocks not only outperformed Bitcoin in terms of daily price rally but also in terms of year-to-date gains. Cipher Mining Inc. has seen an increase of 356% YTD compared to Bitcoin’s 86% YTD gains. Similarly, Riot Platforms has registered a 163.10% YTD growth whereas Northern Data AG, a GPU miner with headquarters in Frankfurt, has grown by 291.40%. Hut 8 Mining Corp, Iris Energy, Bitfarms, Marathon Digital and Hive Technologies have all registered more than 100% growth this year.

Apart from public Bitcoin mining companies, other Bitcoin-centred public firms such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy also posted multi-week highs. Coinbase’s stocks were up by 3.42% at publishing time while the largest Bitcoin-holding public firm MicroStrategy recorded a 9% surge on the daily charts.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoins holding is back in the green for the third time this year. The profit on BTC holdings comes after being down as much as -50% during the bear market. MicroStrategy currently holds 158,245 BTC bought at an investment of $4.68 billion at an average price of $29,582. The public company’s investment is currently worth $5.5 billion, leading to nearly $1 billion in unrealized gains.

*MicroStrategy stock price chart. Source: TradingView*

The Bitcoin price breached the $35,000 mark on Oct. 23 with a double-digit surge taking the price to a one-year high before retracing below $33,000. Earlier today, BTC price surged another 5% and currently trading above $34,500.

Magazine: Asia Express: PEX staff flee event as scandal hits, Mt. Gox woes, Diners Club crypto

Don’t Count on Bitcoin Collapse to Previous Lows, Says Crypto Analyst Jason Pizzino – Here’s Why

October 18, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Stocks fall, yields rise as inflation data comes in hotter than expected

October 12, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

The stock market declined on October 12 as the US BLS released new data showing prices rose faster than expected.

October 12, 2023

Stocks fell in the US today as newly released inflation data overshot expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 173.73 points (0.51%), to 33,631.14. The S&P 500 declined by 27.34 points (0.62%), ending the day at 4,349.61. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index lost 85.46 points (0.63%), declining to 13,574.22.

*One-day S&P 500 chart for 10-12-2023. Source: MSN Money.*

At 8:30 am ET, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released Consumer Price Index data for the month of September. It showed that prices increased 0.4% over the course of the month and 3.7% in the year preceding October 1. This was higher than the 0.3% for the month and 3.6% year-over-year estimated by Dow Jones. Traders interpreted the higher-than-expected figure as bearish for equities, as it could imply that the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates elevated for longer than previously expected as they attempt to keep inflation under control.

Despite this decline in the overall market, shares of some retail-sector companies did unusually well. Wallgreens gained 7% after it reported that its losses had not been as great as previously expected, and Dollar General stock surged by nearly 10% after-hours as the company announced that former CEO Todd Vasos will return to the company.

US Treasury yields rose as traders digested the new inflation data. The 10-year note gained 0.102 points, reaching 4.699%. The two-year gained 0.066 points, rising to 5.071%.

Gold fell by $6.52 per Troy Ounce, to 1,868.93. Gold has been trending down since May 4, when it peaked at $2,060.60. Since then, concerns about rising interest rates and a strong dollar have kept the yellow metal in decline.

*Caption: Gold price since May, 2023. Source: Apmex.*

Oil gained slightly today, with West Texas Intermediate adding a penny per barrel (0.012%) to its price to reach $83.50. Brent crude gained $0.56 (0.65%) per barrel to reach $86.38.

In the forex market, the US Dollar Index rose 0.76 points, to 106.58. The euro fell 0.85% to $1.0528. The yen fell 0.47%, causing the number of yen needed to buy a dollar to rise to 149.7720. Many traders believe that Japanese monetary authorities will intervene if this number rises above 150.

Information for this news item was sourced from Apmex, CNBC, MSN Money, Yahoo Finance, and Business Insider.

Vintage Markets is dedicated to the in-depth exploration and reporting of traditional financial news, tracing the journey of global markets and economies from the Stone Age to the Stoned Age.

Uptober might be over: Bitcoin price data shows investor sentiment at 3-month low

October 12, 2023 Coin Telegraph

basis

Bitcoin price has corrected at each attempt to rally above $28,000. Cointelegraph explains why.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a 4.9% correction in the four days following the failure to break the $28,000 resistance on Oct. 8, and derivatives metrics show fear is dominating sentiment in the market, but will it be enough to shake Bitcoin price from its current range?

Looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin is holding up admirably, especially when compared to gold, which has fallen by 5% since June, and Treasury Inflation-Protected bonds (TIP), which have seen a 4.2% drop during the same period. Merely maintaining its position at $27,700, Bitcoin has outperformed two of the most secure assets in traditional finance.

Given Bitcoin’s price rejection at $28,000 on Oct. 8, investors should analyze BTC derivatives metrics to determine whether bears are indeed in control.

*Bitcoin/USD vs. inflation-protected TIP ETF vs. Gold. Source: TradingView*

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are U.S. government bonds designed to safeguard against inflation. Consequently, the ETF's value tends to rise with increasing inflation since the bond principal and interest payments adjust to inflation, preserving the purchasing power for investors.

$27,600 Bitcoin is not necessarily a bad thing

Regardless of how you frame this historic achievement, Bitcoin enthusiasts may not be entirely satisfied with its current $520 billion market capitalization, even though it surpasses global payment processor Visa's ($493 billion) and Exxon Mobil's ($428 billion) market capitalizations. This bullish expectation is partly based on Bitcoin's previous all-time high of $1.3 trillion in November 2021.

It's important to note that the DXY index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, including the euro, Swiss Franc and British Pound, is nearing its highest level in 10 months. This indicates a strong vote of confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy, at least in relative terms. This alone should be enough to justify reduced interest in alternative hedge instruments like Bitcoin.

Some may argue that the 3% gains in the S&P 500 index since June contradict the idea of investors seeking cash positions. However, the top 25 companies hold a combined $4.2 trillion in cash and equivalents, in addition to being highly profitable. This explains why stocks are also being used as a hedge rather than a risk-seeking venture.

In essence, there is no reason for Bitcoin investors to be dissatisfied with its recent performance. However, this sentiment changes when we analyze BTC derivatives metrics.

Bitcoin derivatives show declining demand from bulls

To begin with, Bitcoin's future contract premium, also known as the basis rate, reached its lowest level in four months. Normally, Bitcoin monthly futures trade at a slight premium compared to spot markets, indicating that sellers demand additional money to postpone settlement. As a result, futures contracts in healthy markets should trade at an annualized premium of 5% to 10%, a situation not unique to crypto markets.

*Bitcoin two-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch*

The current 3.2% futures premium (basis rate) is at its lowest point since mid-June, before BlackRock filed for a spot ETF. This metric indicates a reduced appetite for leverage buyers, although it doesn't necessarily reflect bearish expectations.

To determine whether the rejection at $28,000 on Oct. 8 has led to decreased optimism among investors, traders should examine Bitcoin options markets. The 25% delta skew is a telling indicator, especially when arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.

If traders anticipate a drop in Bitcoin's price, the skew metric will rise above 7%, and periods of excitement tend to have a negative 7% skew.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas.ch*

As shown above, the Bitcoin options' 25% delta skew switched to "fear" mode on Oct. 10, with protective put (sell) options currently trading at a 13% premium compared to similar call (buy) options.

Bitcoin derivatives metrics suggest that traders are becoming less confident, which can be partly attributed to the multiple postponements of the Bitcoin spot ETF decisions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and concerns regarding exchanges' exposure to terrorist organizations.

For now, the negative sentiment toward cryptocurrencies seems to invalidate any benefits arising from macroeconomic uncertainty and the natural hedge protection provided by Bitcoin's predictable monetary policy. At least from a derivatives perspective, the likelihood of Bitcoin's price breaking above $28,000 in the short term appears slim.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Stocks across Asia and Europe rise on Economic growth indicators

October 12, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Stocks across the Asia Pacific region marked a second consecutive day of bullish growth as the European stock market reached a three-week high.

Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe saw gains on Thursday. This uptick was attributed to the United Kingdom’s economic recovery, China’s recent stimulus measures and expectations surrounding the United States Consumer Price Index.

The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong led a positive movement in the Asian markets. The Oct. 12 rise came after reports that China’s sovereign wealth fund increased its investment in some of the country’s major banks.

In Europe, the stock market rally was bolstered by data from the United Kingdom, with reports showing economic growth in August, although some sectors still lagged.

China led bullish stock rally in Asia

China’s sovereign wealth fund announced an increase in its holdings in the country’s four largest banks on Thursday, Oct. 12. The news helped shares of all three main lenders in the country go up during Shanghai’s trading hours. Bank of China stock increased by 3.2%, the China Construction Bank saw an increase of 2.7%, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China registered a 2.5% gain, and the Agricultural Bank of China jumped 0.6%.

China’s stimulus decisions also helped Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rise by 1.9% to 18,257 points for the day, marking the sixth consecutive day of gains for the benchmark index — its longest winning streak since November 2021.

*Hong Kong Hang Seng Index daily price chart. Source: investing.com*

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index recorded another 1.8% gain on Thursday to reach 32,494.66 points, marking its second consecutive day of gains

*Japan Nikkei 225 index daily price chart. Source: Investing.com*

European stocks three-week high led by London

The British economy rose 0.2% in gross domestic product terms in August compared to the previous month, exceeding estimates of less than 0.1%. This GDP growth helped reverse a slide in the economy that began in July with a 0.5% contraction.

The bullish economic growth for the U.K. helped European stock markets rise to a new three-week-high. The benchmark London stock FTSE 100 Index rose 0.8%, the French CAC 40 was up 0.6% and the pan-European Stoxx 600 traded 0.8% higher on Thursday.

Vintage Markets is dedicated to the in-depth exploration and reporting of traditional financial news, tracing the journey of global markets and economies from the Stone Age to the Stoned Age.

US stocks rise as traders wait for inflation data

October 11, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

All US stock indices rose on October 11, as traders awaited consumer price index data to be released on the 12th.

October 11, 2023

US stocks rose for the fourth day in a row today, as traders waited for the consumer price index report to be released on October 12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 65.57 points (0.19%), to 33,804.87. The S&P 500 gained 18.71 points (0.43%), closing at 4,376.95. The Nasdaq went up by 96.83 points (0.71%), ending the day at 13,659.68.

*S&P 500 one-day chart for 10-11-2023. Source: MSN Money.*

Despite today’s uptick, stock prices are lower than they were in July, as fears of interest rate increases have dominated the market narrative since then. Bears expect inflation to rise faster than anticipated, causing the Fed to respond with more rate hikes, while bulls are more optimistic that inflation will stay under control and not require interest rates to rise much further. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release inflation data for September tomorrow. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones have estimated that the US experienced an inflation rate of 0.3% in the month.

Minutes for the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting were released today, revealing that the majority of members expect that at least one more rate hike will be needed this cycle, although some members disagreed with this majority viewpoint. All members agreed that rates will need to remain high until sufficient evidence proves that inflation is moving back to 2% per year.

The 10-year and two-year US Treasury yields moved in opposite directions over the course of the day. The 10-year fell by 0.1 points, to 4.564%. The two-year rose by 0.002 points, to 4.986%. The yield-curve remains inverted, which some traders view as a sign of an impending recession.

Despite the Fed’s talk of interest rate increases, gold traders remained bullish. Gold gained $13.81, rising to $1,873.56 per Troy Ounce.

Oil declined, with West Texas Intermediate falling $2.62 per barrel, to $83.33 and Brent crude falling $2.03 per barrel, to $85.62. Oil surged over 4% on Monday, when traders began to fear that new Iran sanctions may be imposed due to the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, it began to slip back to lower levels on Tuesday after Iran denied involvement in the conflict, and this decline has continued today.

*West Texas Intermediate crude one-day chart, 10-11-2023. Source: MSN Money.*

In the forex market, the US Dollar Index fell 0.1%, to 105.73. The euro rose 0.1275%, to 1.0622. The yen fell 0.2777%, causing the number of yen needed to buy a dollar to rise to 149.1180. Some traders expect the Bank of Japan to intervene if this number rises above 150.

Information for this news item was sourced from CNBC, Marketwatch, Kitco, Business Insider and MSN Money.

Vintage Markets is dedicated to the in-depth exploration and reporting of traditional financial news, tracing the journey of global markets and economies from Stone Age to Stoned Age.

Inflation and war impact markets, but Paul Tudor Jones says, ‘I love Bitcoin and gold’

October 11, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Banks

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones says he is bearish on U.S. stocks, and bullish on Bitcoin and gold.

Investing legend Paul Tudor Jones has revealed that he’s bearish on stocks and bullish on gold and Bitcoin (BTC).

The two main reasons he cites are the potential for an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and subpar fiscal conditions in the United States. While an inverted yield curve wasn’t included in Tudor’s comments, it’s yet another important factor for investors to consider.

Geopolitical conflicts exacerbate macro uncertainty

In a recent interview with CNBC, Jones mentioned the factors he’s keeping an eye on with regard to the Israel-Palestine conflict before deciding that market uncertainty has been reduced. His general thesis is that if things escalate further, a risk-off sentiment could prevail in financial markets.

Despite the potential for geopolitical tensions escalating in the near-term, the major U.S. indexes have all posted gains for the first two trading days of this week. If Jones is right, this rally will likely be short-lived.

*Dow Jones Industrial Average, QQQ, and SPY 5-day chart. Source: TradingView*

The yield curve remains deeply inverted

One of the greatest predictors of recession historically has been the yield curve. Every recession since 1955 has been preceded by an inversion of the curve between the yields of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury Bonds.

In July, the 2s/10s yield curve for US Treasuries hit a low of 109.5 basis points (BPS). This level had not been seen since 1981. While this inversion has since steepened, things still look bad from the perspective of shorter duration Treasuries.

The 1-month and 3-month US T-bills are currently yielding close to 5.5%, while the 2-year note is yielding close to 4.96%. The 10-year is yielding 4.65%, meaning the 2s/10s curve is inverted by 31 BPS.

A flatter yield curve compresses margins for banks because it limits their ability to borrow cash at lower rates while lending at higher rates, which can lead to restricted lending activity and a resulting economic slowdown. It also means that investors are less optimistic about the near-term future of the economy, as they sell shorter duration debt, causing yields to rise.

The Federal Reserve's attempt to fight inflation by raising rates at the fastest pace in modern history has also played a role. Higher rates create additional stress on the banking system, which has seen 3 of the 4 largest collapses in U.S. history this year alone with the failures of Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank.

Some market observers speculate that the Fed will have to begin lowering rates as soon as early 2024 to prevent further economic fallout, even if inflation has not come down to the Fed’s desired level.

Easier monetary policy and its corresponding liquidity boost tends to be bullish for crypto markets. If rates do fall going into the 2024 Bitcoin halving cycle, the stage could be set for significant market moves.

*2s/10s chart, 1983 - present. Source: Markets.businessinsider.com*

Bitcoin and gold remain the preferred safe havens

Amidst all this chaos, gold and BTC have remained resilient.

BTC has fallen 2% in the last two trading days, being flat over the last 5 days, while gold is up 2% during the same time.

Paul Tudor Jones summarized his position on gold and BTC, saying:

“I can’t love stocks,” he said, “but I love bitcoin and gold.”

The billionaire has said on the record that he maintains a 5% allocation to BTC and he sees gold and BTC as being safe haven bids during uncertain times. Tudor first announced that he made a 1% allocation to BTC in May of 2020 during the COVID pandemic lockdowns.

*Gold and Bitcoin 5-day chart. Source: TradingView.*

All things considered, Paul Tudor Jones could be right. Time will tell if his bearish call for equities plays out, or if risk-on sentiment somehow prevails in spite of recent events.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Asian markets surge as European stocks show mixed performance

October 11, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Asian stocks surged across the board on Wednesday led by South Korean market while European markets had a mixed day.

The stock market in Asia and Europe had a contrasting day where a majority of the stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region climbed across the board while European markets had a mixed day. While South Korea's bullish rally drove Asian markets, European shares faced downward pressure from underperforming luxury stocks.

South Korea leads Asian stock rally

South Korea took the lead on Wednesday among Asia Pacific stocks aided by a surge in its tech stocks. South Korea’s Kospi closed the day with a 1.98% gain at 2,450.08 points hitting a two-week high while chip giant Samsung Electronics jumped 2.71%.

Japan's Nikkei 225 scaled a notable 0.6% to reach 31,936.51 points, its highest level in over two weeks. This stability can be attributed to a recent Reuters Tankan survey, which indicated consistent business morale among major Japanese firms.

*Nikkei 225 index daily price chart. Source: Investing.com*

The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong surged 1.4% in the final hour of trading, on track to rise for the fifth straight session. In Hong Kong, investor optimism was boosted Wednesday by a Bloomberg report that the government is considering increasing building investment to bolster the economy.

*Hang Seng index daily price chart. Source: Investing.com*

Mainland Chinese markets finished higher, with the benchmark CSI 300 index rising 0.28% to 3,667.55 points.

European stocks show mixed returns

European equities fell on Wednesday, with luxury conglomerate LVMH dragging the sector lower on disappointing sales, while Novo Nordisk surged after a favourable update on its diabetes treatment Ozempic.

The pan-European stock index STOXX 600 rose 0.1% to a one-week high while most regional markets were neutral. France's blue-chip index FCHI underperformed most others registering a decline of 0.6% on daily charts.

LVMH fell 6.6% to a 10-month low after reporting a 9% increase in third-quarter revenue, indicating slower growth as a big wave of post-pandemic spending eases. Shares of Hermes and Kering plummeted more than 2% each.

Vintage Finance is dedicated to the in-depth exploration and reporting of traditional financial news, tracing the journey of global markets and economies from Stone Age to Stoned Age.

US Stocks rise for third straight day as bond yields fall

October 10, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Treasury yields declined, giving stock market bulls new momentum.

October 10, 2023

Stocks in the US rose for the third straight day as the market continues to assess the effect of the Israeli-Hamas conflict. Bond yields fell as investors desired the safety of US Treasuries, and these falling yields helped to bolster the stock market. Today was the first day that Treasuries have been traded since the start of the Israeli-Hamas conflict, as the bond market was closed on Monday.

The Dow rose 134.65 points (0.4%), to 33,739.30. The S&P 500 gained 22.58 points (0.5%), reaching 4,358.24. The Nasdaq climbed 78.61 points (0.6%), ending the day at 13,562.84.

*Caption: S&P 500 one-day chart for 10-10-2023. Source: MSN Money.*

The yield on the US 10 Year Treasury Note fell 0.149 points, to 4.655%, and the 2-year note fell 0.148 points, to 4.961%. The yield on a Treasury Note is inversely related to its price, so a falling yield implies a rising price for it. Stocks have been under pressure since July, as continuously rising yields have attracted investors to Treasuries instead of stocks, but today’s pullback in yields was seen as a welcome relief by stock market bulls.

Oil prices declined as war-related fears began to wane. West Texas Intermediate crude fell by $0.59 per barrel, to $85.79, while Brent crude declined by $0.03, to $87.62. Over the weekend, some traders had begun to fear renewed sanctions against Iran, which could reduce supply and drive up prices. But Iran denied involvement on Monday, which gradually began to reduce these expectations.

Gold prices saw a reduction of $0.79 per Troy Ounce, falling to $1,860.48. Despite an early dip, a rally emerged around 10:30 am ET, enabling gold to recover a significant portion of its earlier losses.

*Gold one-day chart for 10-10-2023. Source: Business Insider.*

The US Dollar Index rose 0.29%, to 105.77. The euro gained 0.3852%, ending up at 1.0606. The yen fell 0.1%, causing the number of yen needed to buy a dollar to rise to 148.6660.

Vintage Markets is dedicated to the in-depth exploration and reporting of traditional financial news, tracing the journey of global markets and economies from Stone Age to Stoned Age.

Stocks

$27,600 Bitcoin is not necessarily a bad thing

Bitcoin derivatives show declining demand from bulls

China led bullish stock rally in Asia

European stocks three-week high led by London

Geopolitical conflicts exacerbate macro uncertainty

The yield curve remains deeply inverted

Bitcoin and gold remain the preferred safe havens

South Korea leads Asian stock rally

European stocks show mixed returns

Share this video