Fabio Panetta, part of the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank (ECB), believes that unbacked cryptocurrency assets are vehicles for gambling without intrinsic value, which need to be regulated. In an opinion piece, Panetta states that while cryptocurrency regulation is a good answer to the problem, it must also touch on decentralized finance structures. […]
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Three Arrows Capital Co-Founder Su Zhu Says Digital Currency Group and FTX Conspired To Attack Terra (LUNA)
The co-founder of bankrupt crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) has launched a flurry of accusations despite facing legal scrutiny of his own. Zhu Su claims that the Digital Currency Group (DCG) “conspired with FTX to attack LUNA,” the native algorithmic stablecoin of Terra, that collapsed in May 2022. “They took substantial losses in the […]
The post Three Arrows Capital Co-Founder Su Zhu Says Digital Currency Group and FTX Conspired To Attack Terra (LUNA) appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
World Economic Forum Believes Crypto Will Remain Key Technology
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has reviewed what happened in 2022 in crypto, making several predictions about the future of the ecosystem. Dante Disparte, CSO of Circle, in an article published for the WEF, states that while 2022 has been a terrible year, the building blocks of the industry will continue to be “integral parts” […]
‘Ethereum Killers’ Managed to ‘Kill’ Themselves in 2022 Rather Than Beat the Smart Contract Economy’s Heavyweight Champ
At the end of 2021, a myriad of people thought a handful of smart contract platform tokens, often referred to as ‘Ethereum killers,’ would flip the second-largest crypto asset in terms of market capitalization in 2022. As 2022 comes to an end, statistics show that none of the so-called ‘Ethereum killers’ have surpassed the leading […]
Bitcoin underperforms stocks, gold for the first time since 2018
Bitcoin's yearly losses are similar to high-profile stocks like Tesla and Meta with BTC investors down 70% in 2022.
Gold and stocks have underperformed in 2022, but the year has been difficult for Bitcoin (BTC) investors, in particular.
Worst year for Bitcoin since 2018
Bitcoin price looks prepared to close 2022 down nearly 70% — its worst year since the crypto crash of 2018.
BTC's depressive performance can be explained by factors such as the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates to curb rising inflationary pressures, followed by the collapse of many crypto firms, including Terra, Celsius Network, Three Arrow Capital, FTX, and others.
Some companies had exposure to defunct businesses, typically by holding their native tokens. For instance, Galaxy Digital, a crypto-focused investment firm founded by Mike Novogratz, confirmed a $555 million loss in August due to holding Terra's native asset LUNA, which has crashed 99.99% YTD.
Meta, Tesla stocks mirror Bitcoin in 2022
The above catalysts have prompted Bitcoin to drop 65% year-to-date (YTD).
Meanwhile, the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 has plunged nearly 20% YTD to 3,813 points as of Dec. 28. That puts the index on its biggest calendar-year drop since the 2008 economic crisis. The bloodbath has proven to be worse for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, down 35% YTD.
High-profile losers include Amazon, which has crashed approximately 50% YTD, as well as Tesla and Meta , whose stocks have dropped nearly 72.75% and 65%, respectively. As it looks, tech stocks and Bitcoin have suffered similar losses in 2022.
Just as with Bitcoin, the Fed's rate hikes remains the most-critical factor behind the U.S. stock market's underperformance. But whether a tighter monetary policy would cause an economic recession in 2023 remains to be seen.
This uncertainty has driven capital toward the U.S. dollar for safety, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY), a barometer to gauge the greenback's health versus top foreign currencies, rising nearly 8.5% YTD.
Gold not such a "safe haven"
Spot gold is up 0.14% YTD to nearly $1,800 an ounce, which makes it a better performer than Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market.
Nevertheless, the year has seen gold deviating from its "safe haven" characteristics in the face of a stronger dollar and rising U.S. bond yields.
For instance, the precious metal is down 22% from its 2022 peak of $2,070, though some losses have been pared as the dollar's uptrend lost momentum in the second half of 2022.
Bitcoin still winning since March 2020
Bitcoin had gained 1,650% after bottoming out in March 2020 below $4,000, boosted by the Fed's quantitative easing policy. Even as of Dec. 28, investors who purchased Bitcoin in March 2020 are sitting on 332% profits.
In comparison, U.S. stock market and gold's pandemic era-rally was small.
For instance, the Nasdaq Composite index grew up to 143% after bottoming out at 6,631 points in March 2020. So investors who may have gained exposure in the Nasdaq stocks during the easing era are sitting atop a maximum of 56% paper profits as of Dec. 28.
The same for gold, which rose a mere 43% during the pandemic era and is now up 26.50% when measured from its March 2020 bottom of around $1,450.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin bears well positioned for Friday’s $2.5 billion options expiry
BTC bears are outnumbered based on open interest volume, but bulls' hopes of $20,000 before 2023 have already been hampered.
A year-end wager for $80,000 Bitcoin (BTC) might seem entirely off the table now, but not so much back in March as BTC rallied to $48,000. Unfortunately, the two-week 25% gains that culminated with the $48,220 peak on March 28 were followed by a brutal bear market.
It is important to highlight that the U.S. stock market likely has driven those events, as the S&P 500 index peaked at 4,631 on March 29 but traded down 21% to 3,640 by mid-June.
Moreover, such a date coincides with the centralized cryptocurrency lender Celsius issues, which halted withdrawals on June 12, and the venture capital 3 Arrows Capital (3AC) insolvency on June 15.
While the fear of an economic downturn has undoubtedly triggered the cryptocurrency bear market, the reckless mismanagement of centralized billion-dollar entities is what sparked the liquidations, pushing prices even lower.
To cite a few of those events, TerraUSD/Luna collapsed in mid-May, crypto lender Voyager Digital in early July, and the second largest exchange and market marker, FTX/Alameda Research's bankruptcy in mid-November.
In addition, the quasi-tragical sequence of events hit unsuspected victims, including publicly-listed mining companies such as Core Scientific, forced to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Dec. 21. Despite the bulls' best efforts, Bitcoin has not been able to post a daily close above $18,000 since Nov. 9.
This movement explains why the $2.47 billion Bitcoin year-end options expiry will likely benefit bears despite being vastly outnumbered by bullish bets.
Most bullish bets targeted $20,000 or higher
Bitcoin broke below $20,000 in early November when the FTX collapse began, taking year-end option traders by surprise.
For instance, a mere 18% of the call (buy) options for the monthly expiry have been placed below $20,000. Thus, bears are better positioned even though they placed fewer bets.
A broader view using the 1.61 call-to-put ratio largely favors bullish bets because the call (buy) open interest stands at $1.52 billion against the $950 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin is down 19% since November, most bullish bets will likely become worthless.
For instance, if Bitcoin's price remains below $17,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 30, only $33 million worth of these calls (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to buy Bitcoin at $17,000 or $18,000 if it trades below that level on expiry.
Bears could secure a $340 million profit
Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Dec. 30 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:
- Between $15,000 and $16,000: 700 calls vs. 22,500 puts. The net result favors bears by $340 million.
- Between $16,000 and $17,000: 2,000 calls vs. 16,500 puts. The net result favors bears by $240 million.
- Between $17,000 and $18,000: 7,500 calls vs. 13,600 puts. Bears remain in control, profiting $110 million.
- Between $18,000 and $19,000: 12,100 calls vs. 11,300 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.
Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $18,000 on Dec. 30 to flip the table and avoid a potential $340 million loss. However, that movement seems complicated considering the ongoing pressure for U.S. regulation and insolvency fear, including the biggest exchanges, despite the recent proof of reserves effort.
Considering the above, the most probable scenario for Dec. 30 expiry is the $15,000-to-$17,000 range providing a decent win for bears.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Top five crypto winners (and losers) of 2022
Bitcoin and Ethereum are not part of the surprising list of five best and worst-performing cryptocurrencies for 2022.
Cointelegraph looks back on the best and worst-performing cryptocurrencies of 2022 among the top 100 assets by market capitalization. We used the highest and the lowest year-to-date (YTD) returns through the close of Dec. 25, 2022.
Overall, Cryptoindex.com 100 (CIX100), an index that tracks the 100 best-performing cryptocurrencies, fell nearly 68% YTD, suggesting most top coins underperformed in 2022.
Stablecoins are naturalomitted from the list below. Similarly, coins tracking the value of gold and similar mainstream assets have also been ignored.
Instead, the coins mentioned below include decentralized currencies, smart contract tokens, exchange tokens, and others.
Top five crypto of 2022
1. GMX (GMX)
- YTD return: 111%
- Sector: Decentralized Exchange
- Market Cap: $379.4 million
GMX acts as a utility and a governance token within the GMX decentralized exchange (DEX) ecosystem and is the best-performing digital asset among the top 100 coins (excluding stablecoins).
GMX's price uptrend mostly picked its cues from the collapse of FTX, a centralized exchange, and its listing on popular trading platforms—including Binance and Huobi Global—across 2022. In addition, the token rallied impressively in late November after its platform briefly surpassed its top DEX rival, Uniwap in daily trading fees.
2. Trust Wallet Token (TWT)
- YTD return: 92%
- Sector: Payment Platform
- Market Cap: $570 million
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) serves as a utility and a governance token within the Trust Wallet ecosystem. The token moved lower in tandem with the rest of the crypto market, mostly in 2022, but like GMX, its upside momentum increased amid the collapse of the FTX exchange in November.
As Cointelegraph reported, the FTX's collapse boosted mistrust for centralized exchanges, which may have prompted investors to move their funds to self-custody wallets like Trust Wallet. The speculation could have played a major role in boosting TWT's valuation.
3. Unus Sed Leo (LEO)
- YTD return: -3.5%
- Sector: Centralized Exchange
- Market Cap: $3.44 billion
Unus Sed Leo (LEO) is native to the iFinex ecosystem. The token suffered losses in 2022, but at -3.5%, they were little compared to most top coins, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), which lost over 65% in the same period.
One of the reasons why LEO outperformed most top-ranking assets could be iFinex's pledge. Notably, the firm declared at the time of LEO's private sale in 2018 that it would employ 27% of its revenue to buy back the tokens until the entire supply of 985.24 million units was removed from circulation.
IFinex also said it would use the funds it lost during the August 2016 Bitfinex hack to purchase LEO tokens. That explains why LEO rallied by more than 100% at the start of the year, given the uptrend came after the U.S. Department of Justice recovered 94,000 BTC from Bitfinex hackers.
The rally took LEO's price to a YTD high of $8.15 in February. However, the token has dropped 55% since, though still remaining one of the best-performers in 2022.
4. OKB (OKB)
- YTD return: -19%
- Sector: Centralized Exchange
- Market Cap: $1.38 billion
OKB is the native token of the OKX exchange. It provides users discounts on trading fees, access to OKX's initial exchange offering (IEO) platform, and voting rights for tokens to be listed on the exchange.
OKB trended synchronously with the broader crypto market in 2022, including its 150% recovery after bottoming out at around $9.50 in June. The token's bullish retracement occurred despite the absence of a major market-moving event, suggesting it had been mostly speculative.
Overall, OKB's volatile recovery helped it limit its YTD losses compared to most top-ranking assets.
5. The Open Network (TON)
- YTD return: -33.5%
- Sector: Smart Contracts
- Market Cap: $3.52 billion
The Open Network is a layer-1 blockchain ecosystem developed by the Telegram founders Nikolai Durov and Pavel Durov. Its native token, TON, trended downward in line with other top crypto assets during most of 2022, but recovered impressively ahead of the year's close.
TON's recovery period coincided with back-to-back optimistic news. For instance, in October, Telegram announced that it would employ the Open Network to auction usernames. Similarly, the Open Network built a bot the next month that allows Telegrams users to trade cryptocurrencies in-app.
Nonetheless, TON failed to recoup all of its losses, still down 33.5% YTD at $2.36.
Related: Top-five most Googled cryptocurrencies worldwide in 2022
Worst five cryptos of 2022
1. Terra (LUNA)
- YTD performance: -99.99%
- Sector: Smart Contracts
- Market Cap: $604 million
Terra (LUNA) was became a debacle for the cryptocurrency secti after its market valuation crashed by 99.99% in May. The unraveling started with the implosion of Terra's algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD (UST), marking one of the biggest busts in the crypto industry's history.
Terra's implosion prompted its founder Do Kwon to suggest a fork to revive the project. Eventually, Terra underwent a chain split, with the old chain existing as Terra Classic (LUNC) and the new chain as Terra 2.0 (LUNA2).
LUNC jumped nearly 100% after its launch in late May 2022 while LUNA2 dropped around 40% in the same period.
2. FTX Token (FTT)
- YTD performance: -98%
- Sector: Centralized Exchange
- Market Cap: $307 million
FTX Token (FTT) served as a native token to FTX, which collapsed after facing a liquidity crisis in November.
The token continues to trade across several exchanges but accompanies poor liquidity and volume. It is technically "dead" given the defunct status of FTX.
3. Solana (SOL)
- YTD performance: -93.35%
- Sector: Smart contracts
- Market Cap: $4.11 billion
Solana (SOL), a layer-1 blockchain protocol, crashed 93.35% YTD due to a sequence of bad news all across 2022. That includes six network outages in the year, a $200 million hack on a Solana-based wallet, and Solana's association with FTX.
More bad coverage appeared in the form of accusations that Solana is not as decentralized as it claims to be, resulting in SOL being one of the worst-performers of 2022.
4. Axie Infinity (AXS)
- YTD performance: -93%
- Sector: Gaming/Metaverse
- Market Cap: $775 million
Axie Infinity Shard, or AXS, serves primarily as the governance token for Axie Infinity, a play-to-earn (P2E) gaming ecosystem. It also acts as a legal tender in the Axie Infinity marketplace, where in-game nonfungible tokens (NFT) can be purchased.
The AXS market has consistently trended lower in 2022 due to underwhelming players turnout (which lowers demand for tokens), a $650 hack concerning Axie Infinity's blockchain Ronin in late March, and fears surrounding the unlocking of 8% of supply in October.
AXS is down approximately 93% YTD, becoming one of the worst-performing assets in the current bear market.
5. The Sandbox (SAND)
- YTD performance: -92.50%
- Sector: Gaming/Metaverse
- Market Cap: $690 million
Like Axie Infinity, the Sandbox is a virtual platform where users can create, own, and monetize their gaming skills using NFTs and SAND, the platform’s utility token. But despite initial success, the platform now has less than 500 unique users, according to data from Dappradar.
The lower turnout has affected SAND's demand across spot exchanges, which, in turn has pushed its price down 93.50% YTD, as shown below. Other factors behind the declining interest include a general lack of demand for riskier assets in a higher interest rate environment.
Other tokens that fell more than 90% YTD are Fantom (FTM), Avalanche (AVAX), Algorand (ALGO), Decentraland (MANA), BitTorrent (BTT), etc.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Santas and Grinches: The heroes and villains of 2022
Here’s a list of the 12 individuals who had the most impact — for better or worse — on the crypto industry this past year.
From an outside perspective, 2022 has been a rollercoaster ride for crypto. The market reached a total valuation of $3 trillion during the bull market of 2021, only to scale back to its current level of around $810 billion. While this poor performance can be partly attributed to the pervading macroeconomic environment — compounded by rising inflation rates and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, among other factors — one cannot deny the role that the recent slew of insolvencies has had on the sector.
That said, below is a list of arguably the most notable heroes and villains who have undeniably impacted this rapidly evolving industry over the past year.
The heroes
Changpeng Zhao
At a time when some of the biggest players in crypto crumbled, Changpeng Zhao, also known as “CZ,” ensured that his Binance crypto exchange held its own, even playing a role in the collapse of its closest rival, FTX.
CZ has refused to tie down the crypto exchange to the regulatory framework of one country or several. As a result, governments across the globe aren’t too big on Binance’s approach and repeatedly pressure the exchange with regulatory requests. However, despite the continued stress, Binance has grown in influence and stature. Amid a harsh crypto winter when staff layoffs were commonplace, CZ claims to have not made any major layoffs, with the exchange even looking to hire more people in the near term.
Full disclosure: Binance never shorted FTT. We still have a bag of as we stopped selling FTT after SBF called me. Very expensive call. https://t.co/3A6wyFPGlm
— CZ Binance (@cz_binance) November 14, 2022
Lastly, CZ’s digital presence has grown over the past year, with a worldwide Twitter following of more than 8 million. Moreover, the Canadian entrepreneur recently announced that he has invested a whopping $500 million in Twitter.
Brian Armstrong
It’s been an up-and-down year for Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, with the firm laying off several employees while experiencing a significant drop in its stock price. However, despite the setbacks, he has continued to keep his chin up. All through the year, Armstrong has been a vocal critic of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and its chairman, Gary Gensler, claiming the SEC has stifled innovation by forcing crypto entities to adhere to extreme reporting requirements. He was also critical of the sanctions of Tornado Cash’s smart contract addresses by the United States Department of Treasury, pledging to fund a lawsuit to annul the government’s actions.
Armstrong’s commitment to decentralization and transparency was once again on full display earlier this year when he announced that Coinbase would rather halt its Ether (ETH) staking services than censor sanctioned Ethereum transactions.
Senators Cyntia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand
While some lawmakers remain oblivious toward the crypto market, Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand have taken the time to understand the true financial and social potential of this rapidly maturing technology.
Earlier this year, the pro-crypto duo tabled a bill called the Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act, proposing a comprehensive framework for the governance of digital currencies. The bill was put forth in response to the SEC’s lack of clarity in the space and segregates cryptocurrencies into three categories: commodities, securities and ancillary assets.
The bill notes that cryptocurrencies categorized as commodities should be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, with the SEC responsible for securities and ancillary assets.
Representative Tom Emmer
Representative Tom Emmer is another voice who relayed strong support for the crypto industry this past year. Recently, the politician pointed to SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s crypto oversight strategy, calling it “indiscriminate and inconsistent.” Moreover, he revealed that since January, he has been approached by the heads of several prominent crypto entities who have complained to him that Gensler’s reporting requirements are onerous and unfair, calling them unnecessary and biased against the crypto market.
Probably a good time to re-up my bipartisan Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
— Tom Emmer (@RepTomEmmer) December 14, 2022
The bill asserts that blockchain entities that never custody consumer funds are not money transmitters… providing necessary legal certainty to ensure the future of crypto reflects American values.
In a recent tweet, Emmer called for Gensler to testify before Congress and explain his criticized regulatory approach. He also added that “He [Gensler] declined to provide Congress with the information requested in the letter, which would’ve informed Congress of the apparent inconsistencies in Gensler’s approach that caused him to miss Terra/Luna, Celsius, Voyager, and FTX.”
The entire Ethereum core development team
After years of delays, Ethereum’s highly anticipated transition to a proof-of-stake consensus layer finally came to fruition earlier this year. Known as the Merge, it was the first time a project of Ethereum’s size successfully completed a technical maneuver of this scale.
More than 100 developers worked on making the network’s transition from the energy-intensive proof-of-work consensus layer to proof-of-stake a seamless reality.
The villains
Sam Bankman-Fried
It’s no surprise to see this name on the list. Sam Bankman-Fried, the former FTX CEO, was recently at the helm of one of the largest crypto collapses in recent memory. It is alleged that the MIT graduate was unaware of the inner workings of the relationship between FTX and Alameda Research, a sister company helmed by his close associate Caroline Ellison.
Since his arrest by Bahamian authorities on Dec. 12, Bankman-Friend’s future is unclear. Many people would like to see him and close associates like Sam Trabucco, Gary Wang, Constance Wang and Nishad Singh punished for their alleged crimes. Bankman-Fried was extradited to the United States on Dec. 22 and released on a $250 million bail bond. Many pundits have continued to speculate on his future and whether SBF will now be spending the rest of his days in jail, quite possibly with many of his close associates.
Do Kwon
Another person on the list is Do Kwon, co-founder of Terra, a blockchain platform designed to make payments more efficient. Upon its launch, Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin, TerraUSD (UST), attracted 40 million users, with the project raising $32 million from investors, including Arrington XRP Capital and Polychain Capital. It also won support from mainstream companies like Korean ticketing firm Ticket Monster and travel operator Yanolja.
Following Terra’s collapse, a whopping $45 billion of capital was wiped from the crypto market within seven days. It is estimated that the crash affected more than 200,000 South Korean investors, leading several groups to file a class-action lawsuit against Kwon. The South Korean government recently revealed that it is pursuing criminal charges against Kwon, with similar lawsuits filed against him in the United States and Singapore.
1/ Terra governance prop #1623 to rename the existing network Terra Classic, LUNA Classic ($LUNC), and rebirth a new Terra blockchain & LUNA ($LUNA) is now live.
— Do Kwon (@stablekwon) May 18, 2022
Vote here: https://t.co/ZlGxNCUTMa https://t.co/plj0guJwao
In September, the Seoul Southern District Prosecutors’ Office announced that it had started proceedings to revoke Kwon’s passport while placing his name on Interpol’s red notice list. Despite the gravity of the situation, the Terra co-founder seems to be making little to no effort to hide from authorities.
Su Zhu and Kyle Davies
Three Arrows Capital (3AC) was founded in 2012 by Su Zhu and Kyle Davies. Before its collapse, it reportedly had $18 billion in assets. In March, blockchain analytics firm Nansen suggested that 3AC managed about $10 billion in crypto alone. However, speculation about uncollateralized borrowing emerged as early as Q1 2022.
Related: 5 cryptocurrencies to keep an eye on in 2023
Before their fall from grace, Davies and Zhu had become well-known names in the crypto space, with Zhu amassing more than 500,000 Twitter followers. 3AC had stakes in several popular projects, including Aave, Avalanche, Luna, Deribit and Ethereum. As of July 2022, the crypto hedge fund’s bankruptcy filings show the firm owes $3.5 billion in creditors’ claims.
Lastly, it should be noted that throughout 2021 and 2022, Zhu and Davies lost more than $3 billion, putting 3AC’s collapse on the list of the most significant hedge-fund trading losses of all time.
Alex Mashinsky
Alex Mashinsky is the founder and former CEO of Celsius Network, which was one of the largest crypto lending platforms in the world. In June, Celsius abruptly froze customer withdrawals, swaps and transfers, citing client safety and extreme volatility. Shortly after, the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, revealing a $1.2 billion hole in its accounts.
At the time of its downfall, Celsius had $4.3 billion in assets, with losses estimated at $5.5 billion. Just one month before Celsius filed for bankruptcy, Mashinsky withdrew more than $10 million in cryptocurrency. Several other company executives — including former strategy chief Daniel Leon and technology chief Nuke Goldstein — were also found to have taken similar actions.
.@CelsiusNetwork is pausing all withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts. Acting in the interest of our community is our top priority. Our operations continue and we will continue to share information with the community. More here: https://t.co/CvjORUICs2
— Celsius (@CelsiusNetwork) June 13, 2022
Before freezing customer funds, Maskinsky’s Celsius was one of the most prominent players in the crypto market, holding over $8 billion in client loans and almost $12 billion in assets under management. The firm had more than 1.7 million customers, with each being offered returns of up to 17% on their crypto deposits.
Stephen Ehrlich
Stephen Ehrlich is the founder and CEO of cryptocurrency brokerage Voyager Digital. Days after the Celsius bankruptcy, Voyager announced that it would be halting all customer withdrawals and trading. It filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy four days later. It soon became apparent that one of the reasons for Voyager’s collapse was a staggering $670 million loan to 3AC.
To make matters worse, all of the company’s loans were included in an investor call just a few weeks before the company’s collapse, with documents showing that the loans had been collateralized in tiny portions. Other red flags worth highlighting include an accusation by the United States Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that Voyager illegally claimed the agency insured it. At its peak, Voyager had a whopping $5.8 billion in deposits in its coffers. More recently Binance outlined its intention to buy out the troubled company.
The past year has been rocky for the industry. As the new year approaches, can the market bounce back even stronger and forge a better future for all its participants? Time will tell.
Rating agencies, not regulators, can rebuild trust in crypto after FTX
Private rating agencies could work better and more quickly than regulators when it comes to reviewing businesses in the cryptocurrency industry.
The last year has been an eventful one for the crypto space. The collapse of the Terra ecosystem and its TerraUSD (UST) algorithmic stablecoin saw $50 billion wiped off the market in a flash. And more recently, FTX, an exchange many thought was “too big to fail,” came crashing down. There’s been no shortage of drama in the space, which has seen name-stay businesses and projects disappear along with investors’ funds.
Given the events of this year, it’s inevitable that serious government attention is coming for the space, in every major jurisdiction — and on the time scale of a few months to at most a few years, not decades. This was fairly clear to most industry observers even before the recent FTX debacle, and now it has become glaringly obvious.
There is much debate in the space about whether this is positive. The purpose of financial regulation is to protect end-users from being fleeced and misled by financial operators of various sorts and to promote the overall health of the economy. And it’s clear current financial regulations are highly variable in their effectiveness in these regards. Additionally, it is unclear what sort of regulations could be put in place that would be truly beneficial for the industry and its customers.
Perhaps instead of regulation, we should be focusing our efforts in other places to ensure crypto gets its house in order. Outlined below are three key benefits of crypto rating agencies — community-driven bodies that assess projects — and how they could solve the issues with crypto.
Rating agencies can move at the pace of crypto
The crypto space is ever-changing and fast-paced. Between November 2021 and November 2022, almost 2,000 new cryptocurrencies were created — a nearly 25% increase in the total number of currencies. New tokens and projects are constantly appearing.
While some of the projects appearing are innovative and push the boundaries of technology, there can be many dangers for participants to navigate. The cypherpunk ethos underlying early crypto innovations holds that the space be anonymous. However, when you mix this anonymity with a large body of relatively naive consumers, it creates a beautiful environment for fraud, scams and pyramid schemes.
Related: What Paul Krugman gets wrong about crypto
This could be an issue for regulators, as implementing policy is time-consuming. For example, the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework took over two years to draft and approve. In the time it takes to review and implement protective measures, the space will have already moved on to new dangers.
Crypto rating agencies would be the antithesis of this. They would be at the forefront of the industry. They could provide consumers with relatively impartial, open-minded analysis of the algorithms, structures, communities, risks and rewards underlying various products — at a rapid speed commensurate with the development of these new products.
Terra served as a prime example of how this would work. Some in the space knew that Terra had unsound tokenomics, which ultimately led to its downfall. Those without backgrounds in quantitative finance and tokenomics wouldn’t have the same understanding. Additionally, regulators were not even aware of Terra until it collapsed; thus, they couldn’t protect investors from it. By having knowledgeable, recognized bodies reviewing cryptocurrencies and businesses in the space, investors can be swiftly made aware of the underlying issues in projects and make informed decisions as to whether they want to take the risk.
Bad actors can be stopped before they cause problems
While regulations are put in place to deter bad actors and protect people, they don’t always work. And this is not just exclusive to crypto. There will always be law-breaking projects in the space that investors have to avoid.
This is evidently clear when we look at FTX. The exchange promised to hold customers’ funds with a fully backed reserve. However, when FTX’s sister company, Alameda Research, had its balance sheet publicly revealed, it was shown that the two firms illicitly used investors’ funds. This caused FTX users to try to withdraw their money. However, because FTX didn’t fully back its reserves, it couldn’t pay users back. This is fraudulent activity, and the regulations currently in place should have deterred FTX from doing this, but they didn’t.
The implementation of rating agencies could have prevented this catastrophe. Nine months before the fall of FTX, research was conducted into the platform, and concerning links between it and Alameda Research were uncovered. However, this information wasn’t widely disseminated and never reached the majority of FTX users. Had rating agencies been in place, this information could’ve been made more publicly available, allowing users to deposit their funds into safer exchanges.
Rating agencies would act as a guard against illicit activity. They would be highly valuable, trusted sources of in-depth information regarding the quality of different blockchain networks, presented in various levels of accessibility and detail. They would also serve to reduce the crude overgeneralization of crypto that is present in the media, as well as the wealth of disinformation available online. Rating agencies could provide investors with the necessary information that they need to avoid bad players.
Rating agencies would be created by crypto and for crypto
The financial market is currently set up to favor institutions and the wealthy. In the United States, there are laws banning ordinary citizens who don’t meet a wealth or income threshold from being “accredited investors.” This means that for an everyday person to access the stock market, they have to go through a third party, such as a bank or a brokerage firm — which typically charge fees for access. Retail investors have less freedom and access to the market, and their profits are often fed back to other parties.
It is questionable as to why the market is set up this way. If the purpose is to protect folks from being sucked into money-losing deals, why are these same folks allowed to gamble their life savings away in casinos, or buy state-issued lottery tickets with plainly losing odds? It’s almost as if the government’s goal has been to ban non-wealthy people from any form of gambling where they would have the opportunity to exercise insight and judgment and actually have winning odds.
Related: The Federal Reserve’s pursuit of a ‘reverse wealth effect' is undermining crypto
Without careful consideration, this current setup could be replicated in crypto. Traditional finance regulators may impose policies that are present in the existing financial market, such as the aforementioned income threshold to become an “accredited investor.” These arbitrary policies may be implemented under the guise of protecting people but could instead just lock retail investors out of the crypto space.
Crypto rating agencies, on the other hand, would be set up by crypto-natives with retail investors in mind. The goal of rating agencies is to give the best possible advice to investors, and to do so requires a deep understanding of the space. Additionally, rating agencies are not enforcers — they are simply guides. Participants would still have the freedoms they currently have, just with much better knowledge.
Regulators have turned their heads to crypto, and it’s clear that new policies will be coming very soon. However, they will likely be outdated and ineffective on arrival. If the crypto space wants to improve, it needs to take action, implementing rating agencies that can ensure bad players are highlighted and removed from the community.
Ben Goertzel is the CEO and founder of SingularityNET and chairman of the Artificial General Intelligence Society. He has worked as a research scientist at a number of organizations, most notably as the chief scientist at Hanson Robotics, where he co-developed Sophia. He served previously as a director of research at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, as the chief scientist and chairman of AI software company Novamente LLC and as chairman of the OpenCog Foundation. He graduated from Temple University with a PhD in mathematics.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
3 reasons why BNB price risks another 30% decline by January
BNB has entered the breakdown stage of its prevailing ascending triangle pattern alongside some negative fundamentals that can push price further down.
BNB (BNB), the native token of the Binance crypto exchange, is under threat of undergoing a significant price correction in the coming weeks, based on a mix of technical and fundamental indicators.
BNB triangle breakdown continues
From a technical perspective, BNB has entered the breakdown stage of its multi-month ascending triangle pattern, a trend continuation indicator. The breakdown could last until the price reaches the level that comes to be at the length equal to the triangle's maximum height.
In other words, BNB's ascending triangle breakdown target is near $170, down about 30% from the current price levels, as shown below. The BNB/USD pair could drop to the said level by January 2023.
For now, BNB's breakdown move appears to be halting near $222, which has served as a strong support level in recent history, including the declines witnessed in the aftermath of the Terra (LUNA) collapse in May 2022.
BNB could retest the $222 as support, based on a rising wedge technical setup forming on the four-hour chart, as shown below.
BNB shorts gain momentum
The bearish technical setup for BNB gets further cues from an increasing number of short positions.
Notably, the BNB's price decline witnessed in recent days has coincided with a rise in its open interest (OI), which reached over $415 millio on Dec. 18, its highest level since November 2021. A rising OI and falling price suggest that traders have been opening new short positions in the BNB market.
Wick, an options trader-cum-analyst, said BNB could be in "big trouble" if Bitcoin (BTC) falls more. The daily correlation coefficient between BNB and BTC has been mostly positive throughout their history.
"First target is $197," he tweeted.
Binance insolvency fears drive exchange withdrawals
From a fundamental perspective, BNB looks weaker due to its parent platform Binance's mounting legal issues. Binance could face potential criminal charges concerning money laundering and sanctions violations.
Related: Binance.US set to acquire Voyager Digital assets for $1B
In addition, the FTX debacle also created skepticism among investors toward Binance. Many speculate that, like FTX, Binance may have used BNB as collateral for loans. While Binance has denied such rumors, its clarification has done little to help BNB snap its downtrend.
Moreover, the growing uncertainty prompted customers to withdraw $3.6 billion worth of cryptocurrencies in a week, according to data revealed by Nansen on Dec. 13. Later, the exchange halted withdrawals of USD Coin (USDC), a stablecoin backed by its rivals Circle and Coinbase, which exacerbated rumors that it might become insolvent.
On Dec. 14, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao downplayed insolvency risks by noting that the exchange had experienced bigger withdrawals during the Terra and FTX crashes, adding that their ability to meet the withdrawal requests points toward healthy "stress tests."
"Now deposits are coming back in," Zhao said.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.