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How time-weighted average price can reduce the market impact of large trades

Time-weighted average price is an algorithmic trading strategy that aims to reduce price volatility and improve liquidity during the trading process.

Time-weighted average price is an algorithmic trade execution strategy commonly used in traditional finance tools. The goal of the strategy is to produce an average execution price that is relatively close to the time-weighted average price (TWAP) for the period that the user specifies.

TWAP is mainly used to reduce a large order’s impact on the market by breaking it down into smaller orders and executing each one at regular intervals over a period of time.

How TWAP can reduce the price impact of a large order

Bids can influence the price of an asset in the order books or liquidity in the liquidity pools. For example, order books have multiple buy and sell orders at different prices. When a large buy order is placed, the price of an asset rises because all of the cheapest buy orders are being executed.

For example, Coin A is currently priced at $10 and has the following:

  • 50 buy orders at $10
  • 50 buy orders at $11
  • 50 buy orders at $13
  • 100 buy orders at $15
  • 500 buy orders at $17

Trader A places a buy order of 300 Coin A tokens at a price o $17. Since the order amount is larger than the cheaper orders, the protocol will execute the $10, $11, $13 and $15 price points to fulfill the order.

However, since the total buy order isn’t enough to fill all the bids at $17, the price for Coin A will stop at that level. That’s a price increase of 70%, mostly seen with low liquidity coins. In most cases, the price increase would be less dramatic.

Even though most decentralized exchanges (DEXs) don’t have order books, they have automated market makers (AMMs) that adjust the price of a token based on order size and the size of the liquidity pool. Liquidity is sourced from liquidity providers (LPs) who contribute a certain amount of a token pair to the pool in return for a cut of the fees.

Because liquidity in decentralized finance (DeFi) is more scattered than in more established financial markets, the problem of a single transaction having an outsized influence on the market may be more significant. TWAP strategies can potentially solve the price impact problem, for example, by executing trades in 4-5 minute intervals over an hour.

Breaking up the larger order can give the DEX time to resolve any price differences within the respective liquidity pools, helping to bring the asset back to its spot price. The strategy can benefit DEXs since larger price impacts can affect the token pairs in the liquidity pool.

For example, the cheaper token in the pair can end up with less liquidity, leading to higher slippage (the difference between the expected price of a trade and the actual price it executes at). Increased liquidity can facilitate larger trading volumes for a DEX and provide a better experience for traders.

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Slippage usually occurs due to low liquidity that cannot reach demand, increasing an asset’s price. Ran Hammer, vice president of business development at Orbs, a decentralized public layer-1 blockchain, shared his thoughts on whether TWAP could improve slippage on DEXs.

Hammer told Cointelegraph, “TWAP, used properly, can definitely improve slippage and price discrepancies. Both of these problems arise on DEXes when a trade is too large relative to the overall liquidity in the pool and has a disproportionate effect.” He continued to say:

“TWAP strategies can mitigate this problem by creating smaller orders and giving arbitrageurs a short window to close any price discrepancies and bring the reserves back to equilibrium.”

Deg3ntrades, part of the undoxxed development team at SpiritSwap — a decentralized exchange and DeFi platform on Fantom — also shared his thoughts, mentioning decentralized TWAP (dTWAP), the version of TWAP implemented on SpiritSwap.

Deg3ntrades told Cointelegraph, “By design, dTWAP orders fragment trades into batches of smaller trades allowing the user to specify when these trades are executed at regular intervals over a pre-defined period of time. This results in the market being able to absorb and minimize the price impact of large orders across trading pairs suffering low liquidity.”

“Due to recent events in the market that are out of the control of the DeFi community, liquidity crunches are a prominent issue right now, so Orbs integrating dTWAP with SpiritSwap couldn’t have come at a better time.”

Based on the comments above, smaller orders can improve liquidity by reducing the number of tokens exchanged and allowing the liquidity pools to be re-stocked between trading intervals.

How TWAP can automate the dollar-cost average process

The phrase dollar-cost averaging (DCA) refers to an investing strategy in which an investor makes fixed dollar-amount purchases of an asset or portfolio of assets (i.e., $100 every week). The DCA strategy is used when market volatility is high or a trader has a partial amount they want to invest at the time.

For example, if Coin B’s price fluctuates every other day for a month, an investor can buy $250 worth of Coin B every week instead of trying to buy at a perfect time. This is because the cost will eventually reach an average price point over time, despite the asset’s fluctuating price.

TWAP can be implemented by a trader to automatically dollar-cost average their orders. The strategy works by placing longer intervals between orders and a larger overall time period for the trades. For example, trades can be placed at bi-weekly, weekly or monthly intervals over a few months, a year or indefinitely.

Decentralized time-weighted average price

Decentralized time-weighted average price is a version of TWAP developed by Orbs for DEXs and AMMs. The protocol enables decentralized trading platforms to spread out trades over time and has already been implemented on the SpiritSwap DEX.

The dTWAP smart contract uses a “maker” and “taker” system. The maker is the user who places the order on a DEX, and they’ll be able to configure the limit price, order intervals and order expiration.

The phrase “taker” refers to an independent party that oversees the orders submitted by users (makers) on the DEX. The taker aims to find the best way to execute the batch of orders and bid on those same orders when found. Takers receive a fee for bidding on orders and compete with other takers who may be bidding on the same orders.

Takers set a fee, with the minimum amount being enough to cover the transaction fee for trades. Validators on the Orbs network, known as “Guardians,” function as takers in the protocol, automatically calculating and bidding on multiple orders for the maker.

dTWAP user experience

The decentralized time-weighted average price protocol has a portable user interface that can be integrated into DEXs. Trades using the protocol can be split into market orders (executed at current market prices) or limit orders (executed at a specific price or better).

When setting trades to execute at the current market price, the dTWAP smart contract will do so at the user’s intervals. Regarding limit orders, once a user sets the limit price, trades will only execute if that price is available at the chosen intervals. The trade will not be placed if the limit price is unavailable. Due to this, an order might only have part of its trades executed if the desired limit prices aren’t reached.

For example, a user sets a limit price of $50 or less for Coin C, with seven intervals over four weeks (28 trades total). During week two, the price did not reach $50 for three days, so four trades were executed (out of seven for that week). So in total, 25 of the 28 trades for the order were executed.

Who benefits

TWAP can be beneficial for traders who want to buy into lower liquidity tokens or automate their trading process.

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“TWAP has two basic uses that benefit traders. One is the ability to make large trades or trades in pairs that are long-tail and low-liquidity without disrupting the price. Second, it can be used to automate dollar-cost averaging strategies (where the trader purchases an asset or sets of assets on a specific schedule),” Hammer said, continuing:

“TWAP can be used to construct such strategies in a way that does not require any additional action from the trader other than making sure enough funds are available to complete all trades.”

Deg3ntrades stated, “The ability to utilize TWAP orders not only reduces traders' exposure to high slippage/price impact on large orders or when trading in low liquid pairs but also opens up and makes available a plethora of new trading strategies to more well-versed and advanced DeFi users, such as automated dollar cost averaging.”

Decentralized time-weighted average price strategies can improve the experience of both traders and decentralized exchanges. In addition, the increased liquidity, lower price impact and trade automation of dTWAP could also increase engagement between users and DEXs.

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Crypto adoption in 2022: What events moved the industry forward?

While the crypto market in 2022 was hit by a slew of insolvencies and daily volatility, adoption seems to have continued apace on the global level.

It’s no secret that the crypto market was gripped by bearish pressure for the entirety of 2022. However, amid all the volatility and chaos, many positive news stories appeared as well — especially regarding the global adoption of digital assets and crypto-related technologies in general.

Looking back at 2022, here are some key adoption-related events that helped drive the industry last year.

Polygon accrues 200 million addresses despite challenging 2022

Even though an air of financial uncertainty has shrouded the crypto market since the end of 2021, Polygon — a layer-2 scaling solution running alongside the Ethereum blockchain, allowing for speedy transactions and low fees — continued to witness a lot of growth in 2022. To this point, the network’s unique address count recently surpassed the 200 million mark, reaching a new all-time high of 205,420,908 on Dec. 31.

Additionally, the Polygon ecosystem saw its unique address count surge by a whopping 8,783,568 between Dec. 1 and Dec. 31, suggesting that over the last month of 2022 alone, an average of 283,340 new Polygon-related network addresses came into existence daily. Moreover, it bears mentioning that the number of transactions taking place within the network has continued to hover around the 3 million mark.

Growth in Polygon address count throughout 2022. Source: PolygonScan

Lastly, the proof-of-stake project recently announced the release of its final testnet, an improved iteration of its zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine.

Major brands continue to enter the Web3 arena

The nonfungible token (NFT) market and the metaverse industry have continued to pique the interest of several fashion and luxury brands. For example, in October, Rolex — a popular watch matchmaker with a global presence — filed for multiple NFT-related trademarks in addition to one for a cryptocurrency exchange. Popular sporting goods giants such as Reebok, Nike and Adidas also made similar moves.

Nike launched a metaverse venture called .Swoosh, a Web3-enabled platform where customers can buy and sell virtual products. The platform will reportedly initially look at community building while hosting the launch of the company’s first virtual collection — comprising footwear, apparel and accessories — sometime during January 2023. Upon its launch, the platform will only allow the use of cash, not digital currencies, with all transactions recorded on the Polygon blockchain.

Adidas released a new line of virtual gear last year along with a picture-for-proof dressing tool allowing avatars from compatible partner collections, such as Bored Ape Yacht Club, to be dressed up with their gear. Reebok filed numerous trademark applications in the United States for a wide range of virtual apparel, including footwear, headwear and sports equipment.

Lastly, luxury car manufacturer BMW announced that it, too, had decided to enter the metaverse fray by applying for a trademark for its logo that will be used in relation to its upcoming virtual vehicles, digital retail and other related services.

Total volume of staked Ether continues to grow

Throughout 2022, the total volume of Ether (ETH) locked within the Ethereum ecosystem has continued to climb steadily. Between February and June, the amount of staked ETH rose from just over 9 million to nearly 13 million. As seen from the chart below, the trend plateaued between June and September, only to muster steam once again around mid-September, just before Ethereum’s much-awaited transition to proof-of-stake.

Total value of ETH staked. Source: CryptoQuant

Within the context of the Ethereum network, staking refers to the act of depositing 32 ETH into the network, which allows individuals to accrue validator rights and affords them the ability to earn additional ETH. As a validator, users must perform several duties, such as storing data, processing transactions and adding new blocks to the blockchain to help protect the network for all participants.

Meta integrates support for NFTs

Earlier in May, social media behemoth Instagram revealed its testing program for sharing NFTs for select users across the United States. At the time, a representative for the firm stated that it would create more monetization opportunities for influencers on the platform while introducing NFTs to a larger customer base. A few months later, in August, Instagram decided to expand its NFT operations to over 100 countries across Africa, North America and Asia.

Meta also announced that it would integrate support for third-party projects, including Coinbase Wallet and Dapper Wallet, while extending its NFT offerings to its other core social media platform, Facebook. In November, Instagram’s development team announced that it was testing the ability to mint and sell NFTs with a select group of digital creators. The feature will go live on the Polygon network, with creators and collectors not having to shell out any gas fees initially.

Starbucks’ blockchain-based loyalty program goes live

Starbucks announced the launch of its blockchain-based loyalty program and NFT community, Starbucks Odyssey, to a group of testers in the United States in September. The initiative builds upon the company’s existing loyalty program but uses a decentralized structure built atop the Polygon blockchain.

Starbucks Odyssey is a rewards program that allows users to earn perks and whose scope extends beyond the realm of simply earning free drinks. Odyssey allows customers to interact with a wide array of game-style offerings, allowing them to earn NFTs (referred to as Journey Stamps) in the process. These assets can later be traded and redeemed.

VCs continue to pour money into the Web3 ecosystem

During Q4 2022, Animoca Brands — the firm behind several successful crypto projects, including The Sandbox — created a multibillion-dollar fund to invest in various metaverse projects.

According to Animoca co-founder Yat Siu, the fund will spur the utility of the metaverse and blockchain gaming market. “More people are joining crypto every day, especially in gaming,” he stated, adding: “I’m hoping that this will also drive a scenario where digital property will be recognized like physical property in the legal system.”

In addition to Animoca, other popular firms that have invested heavily in the burgeoning metaverse economy include South Korean venture capital giant Daesung Private Equity. The company recently announced that it had allocated a total of 110 South Korean won ($83.9 million) toward its metaverse-centric fund.

JPMorgan partners with Ripple

American banking giant JPMorgan Chase joined with core Ripple partner Al Fardan Exchange in 2022 in an effort to provide users across the United Arab Emirates access to faster transaction settlement and transfer services.

Al Fardan’s clients will be able to conduct crypto transactions via several popular fiat assets, including the U.S. dollar, British pound and euro.

It is worth highlighting that this partnership comes amid Ripple’s ongoing lawsuit with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. The regulatory agency continues to allege that the project’s associated crypto offering, XRP (XRP), is a security and, therefore, subject to the legal and regulatory implications associated with such assets.

Reddit users mint 5 million-plus NFT avatars

Social sharing website Reddit saw its users continue to adopt NFTs at a furious pace last year, even though its sales declined immensely. It is estimated that the Polygon-backed initiative has already witnessed the minting of more than 5 million collectibles to date.

Moreover, it bears mentioning that these avatars aren’t concentrated among high-value NFT collectors (ala whales) and are instead spread out among more than 4 million unique wallets. Lastly, a vast majority of the aforementioned minted NFTs have been offered to Reddit’s high-value users free of cost.

Tiffany enters the crypto sphere

Luxury jewelry and specialty retailer Tiffany & Co. announced in August that it was releasing a limited NFT collection called NFTiff, each of which would be available for a base price of 30 ETH (approximately $36,000). In all, a total of 250 of these NFTs were produced.

Earlier in March, Tiffany purchased an Okapi NFT from Tom Sachs for a reported sum of $380,000. The image has been the company’s Twitter profile photo ever since.

Positive legislation continued to gain traction

Late in 2022, Brazil’s Congress approved a bill seeking to regulate the use of digital currencies for daily payments within its borders, thereby potentially boosting the adoption of crypto within the South American nation. The bill provides legal status to payments made in cryptocurrencies for goods and services but does not grant them status as legal tender.

In a somewhat similar vein, Abdellatif Jouahri, the governor of Morocco’s central bank — Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) — announced that his country’s key regulatory agencies would soon finalize a comprehensive crypto governance framework. The relevant agencies include the Moroccan Capital Markets Authority and the Supervisory Authority of Insurance and Social Welfare.

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Jouahri revealed that the BAM worked on the document alongside the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

Other countries that have either tabled favorable regulations in 2022 or are planning to do so in the near future include India, Germany, Australia and the United Kingdom, among others.

Crypto adoption soars across MENA, Asia and Latin America

According to a study conducted by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was the fastest-growing market for cryptocurrency adoption last year.

Between July 2021 and June 2022, the region received $566 billion in crypto transactions, a rise of nearly 49% from the year prior. To put things into perspective, there were increases of 40% in Europe, 36% across North America, and 35% across Central and South Asia.

Similarly, Latin America made up 9.1% of the total crypto value received during 2022, reaching a cumulative total of $562 billion while showcasing a growth of 40% between Q3 2021 and Q3 2022. Also, a total of four Latin American countries entered Chainalysis’ top crypto adopters list.

Lastly, Vietnam currently has the world’s highest crypto adoption rate, followed by the Philippines and Ukraine. Other emerging nations that dominated Chainalysis’ adoption index in 2022 include India, Brazil, Thailand and Pakistan.

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Tribulations and triumphs: The biggest surprises in crypto of 2022

2022 was a challenging year for many crypto companies, but some maintained exemplary performance.

2022 saw the fall of many linchpin crypto and blockchain firms as the May market drawdown shook the industry. It caused many cryptocurrencies to lose value and many investors to pull their money from the market. Furthermore, the unprecedented knock-on effects of the meltdown exposed many blockchain and cryptocurrency firms that were ill-prepared for turbulent times.

However, a collective of companies was able to resist negative market forces and grow amidst the turbulence. The crypto market as a whole continues to grow and has now reached 320 million users.

As we look back on a year full of surprises, we have compiled just a few of the biggest stories that took the industry by surprise.

Binance and the beast

Binance is currently the world’s largest crypto exchange by trade volume. The company has managed to penetrate major crypto markets in recent years, including the United States with its Binance.US subsidiary. The exchange, which features over 300 cryptocurrencies, is estimated to have facilitated the trading of crypto collectively worth approximately $22 trillion in 2022.

According to data derived from Similarweb, the platform was consistently getting over 70 million visits a month in the third quarter, which is about double the number achieved by Coinbase, its closest rival.

The crypto exchange made some notable acquisitions in 2022 to boost its geographical coverage. Among them was Sakura Exchange BitCoin, a Japanese crypto trading platform, and Tokocrypto, an Indonesian digital currency brokerage firm.

That said, it has not all been smooth sailing. In December, Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, was forced to downplay concerns regarding a sudden increase in user redemptions after $1.9 billion was withdrawn by users from the platform in 24 hours. Zhao stated that external factors were to blame for the FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) among a section of users.

FUD heightened after the Mazars proof-of-reserve auditing firm paused its collaboration with Binance and other crypto clients. The unexpected turn of events caused investors to become anxious about keeping their money on the exchange.

Dacoco in the Alien Worlds 

Dacoco is the publisher behind Alien Worlds, the highest-ranked gaming metaverse ecosystem in 2022.

The game was able to maintain its position as the most popular GameFi platform in the world in 2022, averaging just over 200,000 unique active wallets daily, according to data derived from DappRadar. This was a worthy surprise considering the stiff competition that Alien Worlds faced. The game had topped the crypto gaming list in 2021, and so retaining its position was an extraordinary feat.

That said, Alien World’s popularity has been boosted by features such as multichain interplay that harnesses the best elements of the WAX, Ethereum, and BNB Smart Chain to improve gaming experiences.

In 2022, Dacoco developers introduced a few innovative concepts to engage users further and enhance democracy in the Alien Worlds ecosystem. Among them were in-game decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs). The new feature allowed players to use their Alien Worlds Trilium (TLM) coins, the native in-game governance token, to support and regulate any of the six competing DAOs, dubbed “syndicates.”

That said, the platform experienced a few hair-raising moments earlier in the year when there was a steady decline in transaction volume. At some point in March, when volumes were at their lowest, the platform recorded less than 4 million daily transactions. Alien Worlds has since bounced back, and current numbers exceed 13 million daily transactions.

Alien Worlds is set to face some serious competition from some upcoming blockchain gaming projects such as Meta, Decentraland, and The Sandbox once the games truly go mainstream.

A terraforming collapse

Terraform Labs is the blockchain company behind the Terra Classic (LUNC) and TerraClassicUSD (USTC) tokens. The company is based in Seoul, South Korea, and is headed by Kwon Do-Hyung, commonly known as Do Kwon.

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The Terra crypto ecosystem is seen as a catalyst to the crypto market plunge that occurred in May that eventually wiped out over 2 trillion dollars from the market. This is after the USTC algorithmic stablecoin depegged from its dollar value and threw investors into a selling frenzy. Very few entities knew about the extent of the damage before the sudden change in market trajectory and many investors were caught by surprise.

A cascade of events, including sudden outsized withdrawals mimicking a bank run, are believed to have led to the eventual collapse of the network.

Billions of dollars worth of the stablecoin and its sister coin LUNC were liquidated within hours due to this turn of events. Terraform Labs executives have faced allegations of manipulation and fund mismanagement. 

What did you do, FTX?

The FTX collapse in 2022 was among the most spectacular surprises in the industry. The implosion saw the exchange’s collateral drop from approximately $60 billion to just $9 billion within months while at the same time facing $8 billion in liabilities due to investors fleeing the firm. The liquidity issues came on suddenly, and few investors could have predicted the crisis.

FTX is currently headed by a new team led by CEO John J. Ray III, who has been involved in the restructuring of several major companies affected by scandal, with the most notable of them being Enron.

CoinShares shows off gains

CoinShares is one of Europe’s largest digital asset investment companies and manages billions of dollars worth of digital assets. The firm’s client base is comprised of institutions and high-net-worth individuals with an affinity for digital asset investments. CoinShares currently has offices in major investment hubs such as Jersey, New York, London, Stockholm and Paris.

2022 was a good year for CoinShares, and its assets under management (AUM) increased by a huge margin. According to the company’s announcement in October, its AUM had increased to $25 billion. This is a considerable increase from the $2.67 billion AUM the firm had reached in June 2021. The positive results came as a surprise, considering that the crypto industry had been on a downtrend since the market crash that occurred in May.

Chainalysis to the rescue

Chainalysis is a blockchain data analysis company that’s renowned for its crypto tracking services that help companies interact with dynamic networks safely. Its clientele includes leading banks, governments, cybersecurity, insurance companies and crypto enterprises such as exchanges that regularly face compliance and transparency issues.

Tracking billions of dollars worth of illicit cryptocurrencies is the name of the game and, in 2022, the company received a bump to its valuation following a Series F funding round. The fundraising event that took place in May saw a capital injection of $170 million and caused the company’s value to rise to $8.6 billion. The jump in valuation was a positive surprise that signaled increased investor confidence in the company as it continued to work on high-profile cases.

Chainalysis helped authorities to seize tens of millions of dollars in stolen crypto in 2022. In September, the company helped the authorities to track and impound crypto assets worth $30 million. The funds were part of the $600 million stolen from the Ronin Network.

The company is currently tracking cryptocurrencies pilfered from the FTX cryptocurrency exchange.

Chainalysis is currently facing some increased competition from competitors such as CipherTrace, Elliptic, Scorechain and Coinfirm, which are each coming up with their own unique range of services.

Sinking Three Arrows into the Voyager

Voyager Digital and Three Arrows Capital (3AC) are two companies that were greatly affected by the May crypto market slump. Their downward spiral was fueled by contagion after a sharp market pullback sparked by the Terra meltdown.

Voyager became embroiled in the mayhem after it lent out about $650 million to the Three Arrows Capital hedge fund. 3AC used the money to make risky bets based on the presumption that the cryptocurrency market would continue to climb in the medium term.

However, the Terra collapse was an unexpected development that dragged the company into losses. 3AC had reportedly invested about $200 million in LUNTC, the value of which dropped by over 99% in days. 3AC filed for bankruptcy in July and failed to pay back its loan to Voyager. This added to Voyager’s liquidity problems, forcing it to suspend customer withdrawals and also file for bankruptcy.

A big surprise? Not so much

2022 was a tumultuous year for the crypto industry and tested the crypto market’s resilience against repeated knockdowns. Tough lessons were learned that would make crypto enterprises more accountable in the future. Some events in 2022 also demonstrated that some practices, such as the use of leverage in trading are risky and can lead to significant losses in the event of sudden market movements.

Besides this, 2022 revealed that the crypto sector had the capacity to provide a wide range of innovative fintech and investment opportunities that continue to appeal to different types of investors.

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Models and fundamentals: Where will Bitcoin price go in 2023?

The rapidly evolving cryptocurrency ecosystem is entering a new phase in 2023, with incoming regulations in the U.S. and European Union.

Bitcoin (BTC) had a bumpy ride throughout 2022, along with the rest of the digital asset market. The cryptocurrency began the year exchanging hands around $46,700 and is currently trading over 64% down at $16,560 at the time of writing. Consequently, the coin’s market capitalization took a tumble from around $900 billion on Jan. 1, 2022 to end the year at around $320 billion.

Bitcoin Price Trend in 2022

While Bitcoin’s drop in price could be attributed to the extraordinary circumstances that the entire cryptocurrency market has been through this year, it is important to reevaluate the 2022 price predictions made by various market entities. One of the most popular predictions was that of analyst PlanB’s Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. 

The S2F model predicted BTC to be at nearly $110,000 as of December 2022. The cryptocurrency finished the year trading at almost 85% off target, which raises questions about the validity of the price model. Stock-to-flow models are generally used to price commodities in the traditional markets, as they account for two variables related to an asset: stock and flow. “Stock” refers to the total existing supply of the asset, and “flow” refers to the new supply of the asset created each year.

Antoni Trenchev, co-founder and managing partner of Nexo — a digital asset management platform — shared with Cointelegraph his thoughts on the validity of the S2F prediction model:

“There are many factors that can influence the price of Bitcoin, including market demand, regulatory changes and technological developments. The S2F model is one tool that can be used to make projections about the future price of Bitcoin, but it is important to keep in mind that it is based on certain assumptions and is not a definitive guide to the future.”

Besides S2F, other models have been used to attempt to predict the price of Bitcoin in the near and distant future. Two popular ones are Elliott Wave Theory and Hyperwave Theory. While both also find their roots in traditional financial markets, their success in predicting the price of BTC has been relatively limited as well.

Price models fail as a new year for Bitcoin ushers in

Considering that Bitcoin only began its journey as an asset just over a decade ago, it is safe to say that the cryptocurrency is still in its nascent stages of price discovery when compared with commodities like gold or silver and other leading technology stocks like Apple and Microsoft. Thus, while there are various BTC price predictions, it is essential to remember the limited availability of cyclical data to factor into these models.

Trenchev added that there are many different models and approaches that can be used to try to predict the price of Bitcoin. Some people use technical analysis, which involves studying historical price and volume data to identify patterns and trends. Others use fundamental analysis, which involves evaluating the underlying factors that can affect an asset’s demand and supply. No single model or approach is universally considered to be the most reliable for predicting the price of Bitcoin, and it is crucial to consider a range of factors when making any investment decisions.

Related: The Three Most Controversial Bitcoin Price Models and What They Predict

Alex McCurry, CEO and co-founder of blockchain solution provider Solidity.io, agrees with Trenchev, telling Cointelegraph, “Bitcoin is a completely unpredictable asset. The only thing one can be certain of when it comes to Bitcoin is the underlying fundamental value of the Bitcoin network and the value it presents to holders and investors. Because of this, one can predict long-term adoption and value in the macroeconomic climate over time, but perfectly timing an exact price is impossible.”

However, one important aspect could change the trends for the price of Bitcoin: utility.

Since Bitcoin is not a smart contract-compatible network, the asset’s utility has been limited to a payment rail. That is slowly beginning to change, with Bitcoin now finding more utility than ever before, supported by the Lightning Network.

LN is a layer-2 payment protocol built on top of the Bitcoin network that enables fast, seamless peer-to-peer transactions. It helps improve the scalability of the network enormously. Most recently, Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy announced that it plans to release Lightning Network-powered software and solutions in 2023.

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MicroStrategy also continues adding Bitcoin to its treasury. Between Nov. 1 and Dec. 21, 2022, the company acquired 2,395 BTC at an average price of $17,181 for a total of $42.8 million. For tax reasons, it sold 704 BTC at $16,776 per coin for a total of $11.8 million on Dec. 22. As a repurchase, the company bought 810 BTC on Dec. 24 for $13.6 million in cash. According to data from BitcoinTreasuries, this puts the firm’s holdings at 132,500 BTC, worth around $2.2 billion at the time of writing.

Global investment manager VanEck released 11 crypto predictions for 2023, among which it claimed that BTC will drop to $10,000–$12,000 in Q1 “amid a wave of miner bankruptcies” and will bounce back up to $30,000 in the second half of 2023.

McCurry agreed with this prediction, stating, “I believe Bitcoin will bounce back in 2023, and I feel that by 2024, Bitcoin will achieve a new all-time high significantly higher than the 2021 peak of $69,000.”

Trenchev added, “It is possible that the price of Bitcoin could rebound to $30,000 in the second half of 2023, but it is also important to keep in mind that the price of Bitcoin is highly volatile and can be affected by a wide range of factors.”

Derivatives market and BTC price discovery

Despite the unpredictable, volatile nature of Bitcoin’s price, the asset’s derivatives market is an important indicator of its current and future sentiment.

According to data from Coinglass, the Bitcoin futures market currently has an open interest (OI) of over $9 billion. At the same time, the open interest of the Bitcoin options market stands at $3.4 billion, with over 76% of the OI on cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Deribit.

Luuk Strijers, chief commercial officer of Deribit, spoke with Cointelegraph about what options data for 2023 reveals about the market’s price sentiment for Bitcoin. He said:

“The overall put-call ratio for June 2023 is 0.24, which is rather low. This typically implies bullish sentiment, as there are three times more calls outstanding than puts. Max pain is at $19,000, also showing upside potential. Investors are positioning at the larger strikes ($20,000, $25,000 and $30,000). The premium for the higher strikes is much lower, obviously, so these could be seen as an upside bet, or used for yield generation by call sellers.”

The max-pain price is the price point at which the largest number of options are in loss. Strijers also added that “since the FTX implosion, investors seem to be on the sidelines, waiting for news about the industry, but also macroeconomic news. We have experienced new lows in the implied volatilities, and the short term is currently trading in the low 30s. We’re even having dailies seen trading below 30%. At the same time, liquidity is currently lower than normal.”

Market uncertainty aside, incoming regulations in 2023 — namely, the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets bill and the United States’ Lummis-Gillibrand and Warren-Marshall bills — could bring stability to the market, as investors who feel the space is provided with more oversight will likely feel more confident.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Indian crypto exchange Mudrex explains withdrawal suspension

Defying expectations: After an uncertain year, DeFi has high hopes for 2023

DeFi had several key moments through 2022, but how is it expected to evolve in 2023?

Decentralized finance (DeFi) is defined as any product or service offered by the Web3 world that helps users conduct financial activities such as payments, borrowing, lending, investing, trading and staking. 

Several Web3 use cases, including DeFi, GameFi, SocialFi and nonfungible tokens (NFTs), emerged through the last bullish cycle. DeFi has been the largest market cap activity within Web3, with a peak total value locked (TVL) of over $175 billion at the peak of the 2021 bull market.

DeFi: The primary use case for blockchain?

Things have not been the same since the Bitcoin genesis block was created. Thanks to the rise of Ethereum that followed, DeFi has seen product market fit. Through the previous Bitcoin (BTC) bull market, DeFi TVL rose from $600 million in January 2020 to $180 billion in December 2021. 

The TVL within DeFi has held on to over $39 billion despite the market crisis in 2022. DeFi has democratized access to financial services, as it doesn’t need a centralized organization to onboard users. Apart from the democratization, DeFi has also opened up new models like automated market making.

All these innovative elements have catalyzed the growth of DeFi protocols and applications. This has also helped other adjacent use cases such as NFTs and GameFi to grow. For instance, lending models with “NFTs as collateral” have seen good uptake. Additionally, DeFi-based models and marketplaces for gaming NFTs have emerged, allowing gaming guilds to tap into them.

Despite these interesting developments, DeFi shrank to a mere $39 billion in 2022. Let us see what transpired in 2022 and what we can expect in 2023 for DeFi.

Fall from grace

The year 2022 started with a broader market fall. Within the Web3 ecosystem, Solana’s Wormhole bridge was hacked leading to $310 million worth of crypto assets being stolen. Thanks to a few projects on the Solana ecosystem, they managed to emerge out of this abyss.

However, in March, rumors about the credibility of the Terra ecosystem and its algorithmic stablecoin started to emerge. As the market took a further fall through April and May, the network collapsed leading to a broader market sell-off.

Following the Terra episode, the markets recovered through the summer, only to be dragged back down by the FTX debacle. While the FTX situation cannot be categorized entirely as a DeFi issue, as it was the result of alleged misconduct at a centralized exchange, some have noted the effect FTX and its associated firm, Alameda, had on the ecosystem.

Despite the bloodshed, the DeFi industry has quietly kept building and innovating. 2022 was also marked by several institutional DeFi headlines that could yield benefits over the coming years.

The Bitcoin network is starting to see utility as the Lightning Network allows projects to build on top of it. Cash App integrated the Lightning Network for faster Bitcoin transactions. There are several other payment applications that could potentially change the “store of value” narrative for the apex asset.

The DeFi TVL on the Ethereum network before the previous bull run started was a few hundred million dollars. The DeFi TVLs on several layer-1 and layer-2 networks, namely Avalanche, Solana, Polygon and Arbitrum, are at a few hundred million dollars each. As the next Bitcoin halving comes around, all these ecosystems should see DeFi growth.

While market sentiment has not been positive, there have been a huge number of positive developments within DeFi, so what does 2023 hold for DeFi? 

Security and DeFi 

Hackers ran rampant in 2022, causing DeFi crypto investors to lose considerable amounts of money. As regulations ramp up and institutional adoption shows promise, there would have to be a few key developments in this space.

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The crypto industry has lost close to $3 billion across 125 hacks as of October 2022. This hurts the reputation of the space and is a huge hurdle in attracting institutional capital. In response, the DeFi ecosystem has already started creating applications that inform wallet holders of what a smart contract intends to do before the user signs it.

However, more needs to be done to address security vulnerabilities around oracles and cross-chain bridges. More decentralization of cross-chain bridges is a good step forward. Also, DeFi platforms will start considering insurance products more seriously to protect user funds. Firms like CertiK and Hacken offer specialized cybersecurity solutions to Web3 platforms.

DeFi and self-custody

The failure of several prominent centralized exchanges and platforms in 2022 has already helped shift volumes to DeFi platforms. However, DeFi is still largely reliant on centralized platforms to onboard new users and convert fiat to cryptocurrencies and vice versa. This trend is being challenged and could change in 2023.

As more users choose DeFi over centralized financial solutions, on-ramping infrastructure into the crypto world should improve. Wallets will have on-ramp plugins like MoonPay and Ramp that will connect to users’ credit cards, Apple Pay or bank accounts to convert fiat to cryptocurrencies and vice versa.

Another key on-ramp feature that has emerged is wallets that do not need users to manage private keys. As user experience starts taking center stage, DeFi solutions could see more first-time users.

Web3 gaming 

2022 saw a number of gaming projects with DeFi integrations trying to find market share. In 2023, these projects will continue maturing and growing with DeFi as a strong pull factor. 

Web3 gaming has found itself in a unique position in the entire ecosystem and could be the growth hack that Web3 has been looking for. While the games still struggle with playability, ecosystem-specific earning models, staking and farming will provide unique offerings and value propositions that traditional games lack.

Can regulators be far behind?

With catastrophic failures from marquee companies and loss of user funds, central banks and regulators will start having a greater say in DeFi. 

While counter-intuitive to the ethos of what Web3 stands for, central banks will start creating regulations and legislation for consumer protection. If United States regulators crack the 90-year-old Howie Test whip and deem most cryptocurrencies as securities, that will most certainly affect this space in the short-to-medium term.

However, some regulation has helped the space gain more credibility. Know Your Customer and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) controls, as well as conduct rules for labeling DeFi-related financial products could bring certainty to the space and encourage investors.

Institutional DeFi on the rise

Institutional interest in DeFi has picked up over the last year. Payments, custody and AML solutions have particularly seen interest from large banks and financial institutions. 

Barclays bought a stake in Copper, an institutional crypto custody firm, while Standard Chartered’s innovation arm partnered with investment management firm Northern Trust to launch Zodia, a cryptocurrency custodian for institutional investors.

Bank of New York Mellon, the world’s largest custodian bank, partnered with Chainalysis to help track and analyze cryptocurrency products.

Financial services firms such as BlackRock and Citigroup invested over $1 billion each in DeFi platforms through 2022. As these firms see more institutional clients interested in the crypto asset class, they will be compelled to create offerings to support their clients.

With more central banks rolling out plans for their own digital currencies, banks will need to prepare themselves for the on-chain world.

Source: Blockdata

On-chain banking would be the next phase of digital banking where transaction finality and reconciliation would be instantaneous, giving rise to new business models and financial products. 2023 would see key steps in this direction.

In summary, DeFi is poised to mature and stabilize through 2023. Any new technology has its ups and downs. Having seen a strong bullish phase and a grueling bearish slump, the time is ripe for stable growth based on wisdom gained through the experiences of 2022.

Indian crypto exchange Mudrex explains withdrawal suspension

SushiSwap CEO proposes new tokenomics for liquidity, decentralization

The new tokenomics intends to boost liquidity and decentralization in the platform, enabling SushiSwap to continue operations.

Jared Grey, CEO of the decentralized exchange Sushiswap, has plans to redesign the tokenomics of the SUSHI token, according to a proposal introduced on Dec. 30 in the Sushi's forum.

As part of the new proposed tokenomics model, time-lock tiers will be introduced for emission-based rewards, as well as a token burning mechanism and a liquidity lock for price support. The new tokenomics aims to boost liquidity and decentralization in the platform, along with strengthening "treasury reserves to ensure continual operation and development," noted Grey.

In the proposed model, Liquidity Providers (LPs) would receive 0.05% of swap fees revenue, with higher volume pools receiving the biggest share. LPs will also be able to lock their liquidity to earn boosted, emissions-based rewards. The rewards are forfeited and burned, however, if they are removed before maturity.

Also, staked SUSHI (xSUSHI) won't receive any share of the fee revenue, but emissions-based rewards paid in SUSHI tokens. Time-lock tiers will be used to determine emissions-based rewards, with longer time locks resulting in bigger rewards. Withdrawals before the maturity of time locks are permitted, but rewards will be forfeited and burned.

The decentralized exchange will use a variable percentage of the 0.05% swap fee to buy back and burn the SUSHI token. The percentage will change based on the total time-lock tiers selected. The proposal notes that:

"Because time locks get paid after maturity, but burns happen in “real-time” when a large amount of collateral gets unstaked before maturity, it has a sizable deflationary effect on supply."

The tokenomics redesign comes after SushiSwap's disclosed to have less than 1.5 years of runway left in its treasury, meaning that a significant deficit was threatening the exchange's operational viability. As reported by Cointelegraph, Sushiswap experienced a $30 million loss over the past 12 months on incentives for LPs due to the token-based emission strategy, leading the company to introduce the new tokenomics model.

Indian crypto exchange Mudrex explains withdrawal suspension

China to Launch ‘Digital Asset Trading Platform,’ Media Report Unveils

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Indian crypto exchange Mudrex explains withdrawal suspension

BMW taps Coinweb and BNB chain for blockchain loyalty program

BMW will integrate decentralized tech in two phases- first in its daily operations to eliminate complex paperwork, and the second phase would see the development of a customer loyalty program.

German car manufacturer BMW plans to integrate blockchain technology into its daily operations and create a blockchain loyalty program for its customers in Thailand. The popular carmaker has onboarded blockchain infrastructure firm Coinweb as its decentralized architecture provider and BNB Chain for settling transactions.

The integration of blockchain technology into BMW’s workflow will take place in two phases. First, the decentralized tech will be integrated into BMW’s daily operations with the goal of automating time-consuming manual processes and streamlining the company’s automobile financing services.

The second phase of the project would see Coinweb develop a customized Web3 application for BMW’s customer loyalty program. The program will use a blockchain-based rewards scheme to incentivize BMW Group customers. A customer’s tier and status in the ecosystem will be determined by the loyalty rewards they have acquired via various actions.

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Owners will be able to use their rewards to purchase goods and services from BMW as well as from a linked ecosystem in the future. Binance’s native BNB chain will be used to settle transactions.

Talking about how customers will be rewarded under the upcoming loyalty program, Coinweb CEO Toby Gilbert, told Cointelegraph that customers will be rewarded every time they have touchpoints with the BMW ecosystem, be it “buying a new car or they go for a service,” he explained further:

“Customers will be rewarded with loyalty points and they will be able to spend within the ecosystem. Our hope is that there will be a future global rollout but currently our partnership is for Thailand.”

BMW Thailand’s leasing head Bjorn Antonsson said that the firm has been actively monitoring the progress of decentralized tech and its various use cases over the years. Antonsson hoped that the integration of blockchain tech in their daily operations would eliminate the manual paperwork and contribute toward the company’s efficiency and transparency.

The interest of automobile manufacturers in decentralized tech is nothing new, and BMW has been involved with the tech since 2018. BMW first used blockchain technology to track its cobalt supply and ensure its products are being supplied using ethical practices. Apart from BMW, another popular German carmaker Mercedes has actively used nonfungible tokens and crypto coins as promotional tools.

Italian carmaker Alfa Romeo used blockchain tech to track car records, while Ferrari’s new deal has hinted at NFT integration as well.

Indian crypto exchange Mudrex explains withdrawal suspension

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Indian crypto exchange Mudrex explains withdrawal suspension

The Stablecoin Economy Shed $28 Billion in 2022 After a Handful of Tokens Lost Their $1 Peg

The Stablecoin Economy Shed  Billion in 2022 After a Handful of Tokens Lost Their  Peg2022 has been an interesting year for stablecoin assets as the market capitalization of the entire stablecoin economy lost just over $28 billion in value. Moreover, more than $3 billion has been erased from the stablecoin economy during the last 23 days as BUSD shed roughly 23.3% during the last month. Over $3 Billion in […]

Indian crypto exchange Mudrex explains withdrawal suspension