Bitcoin price falls to $29.5K, but on-chain data reflects investors’ growing interest

July 18, 2023 Coin Telegraph

<div>Bitcoin price falls to .5K, but on-chain data reflects investors' growing interest</div>

BTC price dropped below $30,000 again today, but the recent crab market price action is also backed by compelling investor activity on-chain.

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped below the $30,000 level on July 18, which given the developments of the last month, retail investors may not have expected, but does today’s downside move represent an upcoming shift in the trend?

Data suggests that over the longer-term it does not.

To get to the positives first, Bitcoin price is still attempting to flip the $30,000 level to support after about 10 attempts since April of this year, but price is continuously finding buyers in the $28,000 to $25,000 range which buyers seem to be viewing as an accumulation zone.

On-chain data from Glassnode’s Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score supports this sentiment and could be a positive, depending on how investors’ look at things given that the behavior of investors at $30,000 BTC price mirrors the same accumulation behavior seen in the $28,000 to $24,000 zone and the near the supposed $16,800 bottom.

*Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score. Source: glassnode*

According to glassnode, “an Accumulation Trend Score of closer to 1 indicates that on aggregate, larger entities (or a big part of the network) are accumulating, and a value closer to 0 indicates they are distributing or not accumulating.”

Basically, buyers strongly accumulated from Nov. 2022 to Dec. 2022 and they were heavy accumulators from March to April 2023 when BTC recaptured $30,000 and the metric suggests they are doing the same in July as BTC attempts to either conquer the $30,000 resistance or received a boost from all the ETF and XRP SEC news.

Bitcoin is in a crab market

The current price action and derivatives market data suggest that Bitcoin is in a crab market, where price remains range bound and consolidates for a prolonged period of time. As JLabs analyst JJ the Janitor pointed out last week, a strong push through the $32,000 level would catalyze a CME gap fill from the Luna Terra-crash era.

*Bitcoin CME Futures showcasing Luna crash CME Gap. Source: JJ The Janitor*

From the perspective of Bitcoin’s weekly market structure, the $30,000 level is an important pivot point that has functioned as support in the previous bull market cycle (and now as resistance) but a grab above that level would essentially set a higher high on the longer time frame and be confirmation of a trend reversal where the next point of resistance is around the $37,000 level.

*BTC/USDT 1-week chart. Source: TradingView*

Traders’ activity in the derivatives market is another factor contributing to the current crab market. Funding is down, open interest is relatively muted and besides retail plebs who are attempting to long breakouts and long lower support retests, or short breakouts and getting liquidated in both instances, a meaningful surge in these metrics that would inspire confidence that price is on the verge of some massive breakout has yet to emerge.

*BTC/USDT derivatives data, daily chart. Source: JJ The Janitor*

Sure, DXY took a dip below 100 last week but it's possibly more connected to investors reacting to the Fed’s positive steps on inflation and too tight of a timeframe to expect some massive reaction from BTC immediately.

The price action in crypto exchange futures highlights degen longs and shorts trying to get ahead of price breakouts and that they are not having much success in the short term.

JJ the Janitor suggests that a metric to watch is aggregate open interest, if that breaks down sharply from the current range then some true buy the dip opportunities could emerge. Currently, it’s still in an uptrend, albeit sideways, but seeing a surge in OI could also be interesting and likely news, regulatory or legislative event driven.

While Bitcoin’s short-term price action might raise some concern among newer investors and day-traders, the on-chain perspective remains quite compelling.

The #Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply remains at an ATH of 14.5M BTC. This suggests mature investors are preferring to accumulate Bitcoin, rather than distribute. pic.twitter.com/VkY9uTAVGG
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 18, 2023

At the same time, the Total Balance in Accumulation Addresses metric has also resumed its uptrend since March 16, when BTC price traded at $25,000.

*Bitcoin Total Balance in Accumulation Addresses (BTC). Source: glassnode*

Readers should also note that the metric also shows the total balance in accumulation addresses increasing since January 2022, when Bitcoin price was trading at $47,800 per coin. What is apparent is that through the worst of the crypto market collapse and Bitcoin price sell-off, multiple on-chain metrics show investors continuing to increase their allocation to BTC.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price correction was overdue — Analysts outline why the end of 2023 will be bullish

February 10, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

BTC and the crypto market will continue to battle with strong headwinds, but analysts explain why Q3 and Q4 of 2023 could turn out well for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) price and the wider crypto market corrected at the start of this week, giving back a small portion of the gains accrued in January, but it’s safe to say that the more experienced traders expected some sort of technical correction.

What was unexpected was the SEC’s Feb. 9 enforcement against Kraken exchange and the regulator’s announcement that staking-as-service programs are unregulated securities. The crypto market sold-off on the news and given Kraken’s decision to close up 100% of its staking services, traders are concerned that Coinbase will eventually be forced to do the same.

The real question is, does this week’s price action reflect a change in the trend of bullish momentum seen throughout January, or is the “staking services are unregistered securities” news a simple blip that traders will disregard in the coming weeks?

According to analysts at analytics firm Delphi Digital, crypto is set up for a “roller coaster ride in 2023.” Analysts Kevin Kelly and Jason Pagoulatos explained the start of the year price action as being fueled by “recent increases in global liquidity” which are favorable to risk assets, but both agree that macroeconomic headwinds will continue to negatively impact markets until at least the third quarter of 2023.

*Major asset classes year-to-date normalized % change. Source: Delphi Digital*

Beyond the negative news of this week and its impact on crypto prices, there are a handful of metrics that provide some insight into how the rest of the year could be for the crypto market.

DXY comes back to life

The US Dollar index has rebounded from its recent lows, a point highlighted by Cointelegraph newsletter author Big Smokey.

In a recent post, Big Smokey said:

“December’s below expectation CPI print and the upcoming February FOMC and interest rate hike clearly provided the necessary investor sentiment boost to push prices through what had been a sticky zone for months.

But, as shown below, BTC’s inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar index (DXY) says it all. Recently, DXY has been losing ground, pulling back from a September 2022 high at 114 to the current 101. As is custom, as DXY pulled back, BTC price amped up.”

*BTC and DXY weekly price action. Source: Trading View*

Taking a look at DXY this week, one will note that DXY rebounded off its Jan. 30 low at 101 and reached a 5 week high near 104. Like clockwork, BTC topped out at $24,200 and began to rollover as DXY surged.

*DXY. 1-week chart. Source: TradingView*

According to JLabs analyst JJ the Janitor:

“How DXY fares after retesting the 50-, 100-, and 200-day MAs in the weeks to come will provide us much insight into the market’s next move…If it breaks through and holds above its 200-day MA (currently at ~106.45), asset markets will indeed become bearish again, and we could expect November’s lows to be threatened. However, should this DXY back-test fail, either now (at the 50-day) or later, we can take it as confirmation that we have entered into a new macro environment. One where the strong dollar that terrorized us in 2022 is now a neutered beast.”

The Fed pivot takes way longer than investors expect

For months retail and institutional traders have prophesied an eventual pivot from the U.S. Federal Reserve on its interest rate hike and quantitative tightening policies. Some seem to interpret the shrinking size of the recent, and future rate hikes as confirmation of their prophecy, but in the last FOMC presser, Powell hinted at the need for future rate hikes and while speaking to David Rubenstein during a open interview at the Economic Club of Washington, Powell said:

“We think we are going to need to do further rate increases,” primarily because according to Powell, “The labor market is extraordinarily strong.”

According to Delphi Digital analysis, market participants are “playing chicken with the Fed trying to call their bluff” and the analysts suggest that data shows the bond market is signaling that the Fed’s policy too firm.

Generally, equities and crypto markets have rallied when FOMC decisions on rate hikes align with that of market participants for anyone who was breathing and following crypto markets in 2022 will remember that everyone and their mother was waiting for Powell to pivot before going ultra long on large cap cryptocurrencies.

From the vantage point of technical analysis, a retest of underlying support in the $20,000 zone is not a wild expectation, especially after a 40%+ monthly rally from BTC in January.

Based off historical data and fractal analysis, Delphi Digital analysts suggest that there is room for further upside from BTC as “there isn’t a lot of overhead supply for BTC in the $24K - $28K range” and earlier reporting from Cointelegraph highlighted the importance of Bitcoin’s recent golden cross.

While this is all encouraging in the short-term, the reality of certain CPI components remaining sticky and Powell seeing a need for further interest rate hikes due to the strength of the labor market should be a reminder that crypto is not yet in bull market territory. Interest rate hikes increase operational and capital costs for businesses and these increases always trickle down to the consumer. Another consistent and alarming development is the continuance of layoffs in big tech companies.

Banks and major U.S. brokerages continue to spin down their earnings estimates and big tech has a way of being the canary in the coal mine for equities markets, earnings and the rate of layoffs taking place. The high correlation between equities markets and Bitcoin, along with concerning macroeconomic hurdles suggest that there is an expiration date on crypto’s recent mini bull market and investors would do well to keep this front of mind.

If the long-awaited “Fed pivot” continues to remain elusive, certain realities will come to the forefront and they are bound to have a stronger impact on pricing in the crypto and equities markets.

Looking deeper into 2023

Despite the more bearish nature of the challenges listed above, Delphi Digital analysts issued a more positive outlook for the bottom half of 2023. According to their analysis:

“The need for liquidity expansion will become more pressing as the year progresses. Cracks in the labor market will also become more apparent, which will give the Fed cover for a shift towards more accommodative policy. The reversal in Global Liquidity we cited at the end of last year will start to accelerate in response to a weaker growth outlook and concerns over growing fragilities in sovereign debt markets, acting as support for risk assets in 2H 2023. The impact of changes in global liquidity on financial markets tends to lag anywhere from 6-18 months, setting up a more optimistic outlook for 2024-2025.”

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin and Ethereum gave back their gains, but has anything actually changed?

December 16, 2022 Coin Telegraph

are altcoins bullish

Bullish crypto momentum fizzled after Fed Chair Powell poured cold water on investors’ hopes that a positive CPI report would trigger a trend change, but higher time frames remain interesting.

Crypto markets threw a nice head fake this week by rallying into resistance on a “positive” Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, before retracing the majority of those gains right after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took on a surprisingly hawkish tone during his post-rate-hike presser.

The Fed hiked interest rates by 0.50%, which was well within the expectation of most market participants, but the eyebrow-raiser was the Federal Open Market Committee consensus that rates would need to reach the 5%–5.5%+ range in order to hopefully achieve the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

This basically threw cold water on traders’ lusty dreams of a Fed policy pivot taking place in the first half of 2023, and the damper on sentiment was felt throughout crypto and equities markets.

As the charts below show, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) reversed course right as Powell began his presser on Dec. 14.

*BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT, 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

How do you like them apples?

It’s also not surprising that BTC and ETH price action and market structure on the lower time frames also look identical.

So, yes, markets retraced their recent gains over bad news, but has anything actually “changed?” Bitcoin is still trading with a clear range; Ether is doing the same, and neither asset has made new yearly lows recently.

As the saying goes, when in doubt, zoom out. So, let’s do that briefly and take a better look at the lay of the land.

When in doubt, zoom out!

On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is still bouncing around in a falling wedge, a classic technical analysis pattern that tends to lean bullish. The price is doing pretty much what one would expect the price to do within the framework of technical analysis.

There’s expected resistance at the 20-MA, which is lined up with the descending trendline. The volume profile metric shows a bulk of activity in the $18,000–$22,500 range, and the lower arm of the falling wedge has so far functioned as support.

Similar price action was seen in May 2021–July 2021, but of course, the situations were entirely different, so that’s a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison. There’s a divergence on the MACD and RSI. In short, the price is trending down, and MACD and RSI are trending up on the weekly timeframe, which is possibly something worth keeping an eye on.

What I like about the weekly timeframe is that candles form slowly, and trends, whether bullish or bearish, are pretty easy to call and confirm. It’s easier to build a solid investment thesis of the weekly time frame than spend endless hours pouring over four-hour, one-hour and daily charts.

Anyhow, breakouts from the falling wedge are likely to be capped at the descending trendline, while a breakdown of the pattern or drop below the lower support could see the price fall as low as $11,400. That’s all within the market consensus for most analysts.

As for Ether, like I covered in greater detail in last week’s Substack and newsletter, it’s still doing the bull flag thing: bouncing around between support and resistance and seeing breakouts capped at key moving averages and the descending trendline of its bull flag.

$2,000 remains the eventual target on the radar of most analysts, and downside to the $1,100 is far from shocking.

A dip under $1,000 is likely to raise eyebrows and draw the attention of those looking for more resolute shorts.

*ETH/USDT 1-week chart. Source: TradingView*

Ether price action is basically doing the same predictable thing as Bitcoin: nothing to see here, stick to the plan (whatever that might be for you). Similar to BTC, there’s also a divergence on Ether’s MACD and RSI — something worth keeping an eye on.

Litecoin update

Last week, I also put eyes on Litecoin (LTC) due to its upcoming network reward halving. While the price has retraced from its local top at $85, the uptrend remains intact, and on the daily timeframe, the GMMA indicator is still bright green.

*LTC/USDT 1-week chart. Source. TradingView*

The vertical black lines track LTC’s bullish momentum leading into halvings and the corrections that occur right after the halving occurs. For the time being, everything looks to be proceeding according to plan.

Of course, none of this is financial advice. Make sure you do your own research, calculate your risk, think about the worst-case scenarios, weigh your ROIs and take profit, and cut losses zones a few days before actually making a trade. Remember that 1:3 and 1:5 is the optimal risk-to-reward outcome one should be chasing after.

Ignore the short-term FUD and price action. Zoom out and build a strong thesis from that vantage point.

This newsletter was written by Big Smokey, the author of The Humble Pontificator Substack and resident newsletter author at Cointelegraph. Each Friday, Big Smokey writes market insights, trending how-tos, analyses and early-bird research on potential emerging trends within the crypto market.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ethereum and Litecoin make a move while Bitcoin price searches for firmer footing

December 9, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price aims for support at $17,000, while LTC follows a pre-halving narrative and ETH looks somewhat bullish in its BTC pair.

Crypto price action has been rough over the past few months, but a few green shoots are finally beginning to emerge.

While Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a downtrend, its price has recently found support at the $17,000 level, and ping-pong price action in the $16,700–$17,300 range appears to be allowing traders to pursue some interesting setups in a few altcoins.

Let’s take a quick peek at some enticing patterns showing up on the weekly time frame.

Time for Litecoin’s halving hopium?

*LTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

As a fork of Bitcoin, Litecoin (LTC) tends to turn bullish several months before its reward halving takes place, as was the case in 2015 and 2019.

Litecoin’s next reward halving is 237 days away, and it appears that the altcoin is undergoing a little pre-halving hype. Since Nov. 6, LTC has gained 58.6%, and it is starting to mirror the triple price action that occurred in previous halvings.

The Guppy Multiple Moving Averages (GMMA) indicator on the daily time frame has also turned green — something that rarely happens.

From a technical analysis point of view, LTC maintains a trend of higher lows, consolidation and bull flag breakouts, which are then followed by further consolidation.

If LTC maintains its current market structure and continues to ride along the 20-day moving average, its price could see a pre-halving run up to the $100–$125 area.

Ether plots its own course

The ETH/BTC weekly timeframe shows some notable developments. Depending on how one sees it, there could be a nice inverse head and shoulders forming.

*ETH/BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

One could also argue that the ETH/BTC weekly is flashing a massive cup-and-handle pattern.

*ETH/BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingView*

Like Litecoin, the GMMA indicator in the ETH/BTC weekly pair has been bright green since Aug. 8, which is nearly four months.

Ether’s price action in its U.S. dollar and BTC pair raise eyebrows, especially given the state of the broader market.

Despite this short-term bullish outlook, ETH’s price could be affected by red flags such as Ethereum blockchain censorship, U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control compliance, ETH’s performance in its supposedly deflationary post-Merge environment, and concerns over the possibility of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission changing their perspective on Ether being a commodity.

On-chain data tells an interesting tale

Looking at on-chain data provides a bit of color. Data from Glassnode shows that since Nov. 7, Ethereum addresses with balances greater than 32 ETH, 1,000 ETH and 10,000 ETH have been on an uptrend.

*ETH address balances. Source: glassnode*

While the rebound is small, it’s important to keep an eye on growth metrics like new Ethereum addresses, daily active users, increases in a variety of balance cohorts and the percentage of holders in profit because they could eventually mark a change in trend and sentiment.

Contrasting these metrics against trading volumes, price and other technical analysis indicators can help investors attain a more comprehensive view of whether opening a position in ETH is a good idea.

ETH’s MVRV Z-Score is also flashing a few signals. Similar to Bitcoin on-chain analysis, the MVRV Z-Score examines the current market capitalization of the asset versus the price at which investors purchased it.

The metric can suggest when an asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to its fair value, and it tends to signal market tops when the market cap is significantly higher than the realized cap.

According to the three-year MVRV Z-Score chart below, the Z-Score is back in the green zone.

Considering the uncertainty in the market, worries related to stringent crypto regulation, and the unresolved threats of insolvency, bankruptcy and contagion from the FTX debacle, it’s difficult to determine whether it’s time to go long on ETH.

Risk-averse traders looking to pull the trigger might consider going spot long and short through futures. That way, if one is long-term bullish on ETH, they can build a position while also hedging against short-term downside.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

3 key crypto price events to watch in the wake of the FTX and Alameda debacle

November 11, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Alameda Research

FTX and Alameda’s Ponzi-like trading scheme has dealt a heavy blow to the entire crypto industry. Here are three developments to keep a close eye on.

Up until the start of this week, Bitcoin (BTC) had been demonstrating record-low volatility, and this gave altcoins enough latitude to paint some nice technical setups.

At the same time, on-chain data and technical analysis were beginning to suggest that BTC was midway through carving out a bottom, and many analysts believed that brighter days lay ahead.

Fast forward to the present, and the volatility spike the market received actually turned out to be a black swan event.

As you already know, FTX is kaput.

Alameda Research is kaput.

BlockFi has put a stop to withdrawals, citing an inability to “operate as usual,” so it’s “pausing client withdrawals as allowed under our Terms,” suggesting that the company is also kaput.

The contagion is spreading, and the shrapnel from this Krakatoa-level event is bound to ripple throughout the entire crypto ecosystem.

At this time, it’s difficult to make a confident short-term investment thesis for assets by simply looking at the chart, and the best thing unsure investors can do is either stick to a time-tested plan or do nothing.

The most likely short-term outcome is volatility will remain high, and crypto prices will continue to whipsaw for a while.

Nobody is comfortable focusing on the potential negative outcomes that lie ahead for the crypto sector and cryptocurrency prices, but it’s every investor’s responsibility to consider the absolute worst outcomes and have a contingency plan in place.

That way you don’t freak out when shit really hits the fan.

Here are a few things to keep an eye on over the coming days.

USDT/USD vs. USDC/USD

During high volatility events, stablecoins sometimes break their peg with the dollar. If there’s some wild FUD about Bitcoin being banned, hacked or dying, stablecoins prices sometimes rise above $1.00 as traders seek shelter in assets fixed to the dollar.

During crypto black swan events, sometimes Tether (USDT) loses its dollar peg. It’s happened a number of times in the past, and usually, once the smoke clears it regains the 1:1 peg.

On Nov. 9, USDT/USD broke below its dollar peg, dipping as low as $0.97 at one point, according to data from TradingView and Coinbase. While USDT dipped below its peg, USD Coin’s (USDC) value spiked to $1.01.

While we won’t explore the unconfirmed reasons why there was dislocation between the two, the unsubstantiated rumors related to Tether and Alameda Research can easily be found on Twitter.

What’s important to note here is that panic can easily be triggered by false information, rumors and lies, so it doesn’t matter if the rumors about Alameda/Tether are completely false.

If it spreads on social media and spooks investors, they’re going to act and in this case; many will or are in the process of flipping their USDT to USDC, BTC or other stablecoins.

Similar behavior was seen during the Terra and Celsius implosion. On May 12, USDC’s price spiked from $1.00 to $1.06–$1.19, according to data from TradingView and KuCoin. On the same day, USDT’s value briefly dropped to $0.98 and $0.94.

When the price is dislocated and there are spreads across exchanges, making stablecoin conversions becomes costly and the experience of swapping from one to the other or from an altcoin to stablecoin can become unpleasant.

The USDT and USDC dollar peg is something worth keeping an eye on.

Bitcoin price expectations

The Nov. 8 sell-off finally pushed BTC’s price out of the 146-day range where the price fluctuated between $24,500 and $18,600.

*BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

This is a significant range break, and from the viewpoint of technical analysis, failure to recapture this range and increased selling could see the price slice through the volume profile gap to find support in the $11,000–$12,000 range.

Unpleasant, yes, but that’s just the current reality.

If Bitcoin is able to reclaim and hold the $18,000 handle, at least the price will back in its previous range, and that would be a good sign.

A glance at the Ether (ETH) chart reflects a similar set-up where ETH dropped out of a 148-day range between $2,000 and $1,250, but the price has already reclaimed the previous range.

*ETH/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

Bearish traders have a downside target in the $700 range, but it’s interesting to see how the price has rebounded to trade back around $1,250.

The market is searching for firmer footing

A lot of crypto-focused companies and investment groups have exposure to FTX and Alameda research, which also means these same companies now have some holes in their own balance sheets.

Companies with exposure to #FTX

-Sequoia Capital - $213.5 million exposure
-Galaxy Digital - $77 million exposure
-Crypto.com - Less than $10 million
-Amber Group – 10% funds
-Kraken – exposure to 9000 FTT
-Multicoin Capital – 10% funds
-Selini Capital – 3% of their funds
— Being Satoshi (@BeingSatoshi) November 10, 2022

A handful of these crypto-native companies also hold significant-sized bags of assorted altcoins and decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens. To salvage the current losses, make good on their own loans, and meet their client obligations, it’s possible that a number of these BTC, altcoin and DeFi token stashes could find their way to being market sold on spot exchanges.

Altcoins are already down badly, and some are relatively illiquid, meaning a sharp increase in selling could put strong downward pressure on price.

Before buying what looks like once-in-a-life-time dips and cycle bottoms, investors should dig around and take a closer look at who are some of the majority holders of the token/project and remember that FTX’s multi-billion-dollar implosion is yet to be fully felt throughout the sector.

Now is the time to research and do due diligence before making any investment in any cryptocurrency.

This newsletter was written by Big Smokey, the author of The Humble Pontificator Substack and resident newsletter author at Cointelegraph. Each Friday, Big Smokey will write market insights, trending how-tos, analyses and early-bird research on potential emerging trends within the crypto market.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price finally made a move, and fireworks are sure to follow

October 7, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Buy Bitcoin

New crypto market trends are starting to emerge now that Bitcoin and equities markets move closer to make-or-break levels, which will determine the markets’ direction.

This week, Bitcoin (BTC) raised investors’ hopes and then left them high and dry again.

Traders placed a majority of their attention on BTC price pushing through a long-term descending trendline resistance, but according to Cointelegraph analyst Ray Salmond, “BTC price simply ‘consolidated’ its way through the trendline by trading in a sideways manner where price has been range bound between $18,500 and $24,500 for the past 114 days.”

At the time of writing, BTC’s price continues to battle at $20,000, and it’s uncertain whether or not the level will hold as support.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Whalemap shows the three price zones investors should focus on.

*Key BTC price support zones. Source: Whalemap*

Whalemap told Cointelegraph, “So far, the resistance at $20,380 — that is due to a whale accumulation of ~20,200 BTC — has been working quite well, with the latest rejection being almost to the dollar accurate.”

Whalemap elaborated:

“Our support remains unchanged since the drop from $30,000. It lies at $19,174 and was formed all the way back on June 18, 2022, by a staggering accumulation of ~101,300 BTC by whale wallets. There is also one more resistance above $20,380, at $21,543. But first, we need to at least break above $20,380.”

From the perspective of technical analysis, on the daily timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are constricted, BTC futures open interest reached a near-record high above 604,000, and the price is trading outside of a long-term trendline resistance — all of which are signs that a directional move is in the making.

As shown by the chart below, investors’ appetite for risk continues to decline, and it should be no surprise that risk assets are the first to see outflow and be ignored by investors during a bear market.

*Investor risk appetite. Source: Bank of America Global Research*

While BTC’s and Ether’s (ETH) prices have ignored the recent volatility seen in equities markets, United States Federal Reserve policy and the potential for another wave of strong selling in stock markets could trigger the next leg down for the cryptocurrency market.

What’s next for Bitcoin?

At the moment, Bitcoin and the wider crypto market are essentially in a zone where a range of bullish and bearish factors could determine the next direction of the trend.

As mentioned by Delphi Digital, Bitcoin is currently following the trajectory of previous market cycles.

*2018 Bitcoin market cycle vs. 2020 Bitcoin market cycle. Source: Delphi Digital*

Zooming in closer, we can see what Delphi Digital characterizes to be “uncanny similarities to the 2018 cycle.”

*2018 Bitcoin market cycle vs. 2022 Bitcoin market cycle. Source: Delphi Digital*

There are a handful of Bitcoin, crypto market and equities metrics that are showing confluence and support the possibility of a relief rally in the short term, but generally, the overall trend favors the downside. If equities see some relief and rally higher, the tight correlation between BTC, Ether and equities markets would suggest a similar style of price action in crypto.

With that said, a Bitcoin relief rally is likely to be capped at $27,500, where the 200-day moving average resides. The most encouraging short-term actions from Bitcoin would be to either continue in the same range, holding $20,000 and $18,400 as support, or a high volume breakout clearing the current 116-day range with a series of daily closes above the range high at $25,200.

An eventual flip of the 200-MA to support and a series of weekly higher highs on the candlestick chart would be early signs of a possible longer-term bullish reversal, but this seems highly unlikely given the macro headwinds facing Bitcoin.

what is bitcoin price