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Bitcoin

Invesco, Bitwise and Valkyrie were also hit with delays by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission has delayed its decision on several proposals for spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including BlackRock, ahead of an anticipated government shutdown.

The spot Bitcoin ETF applications of Invesco, Bitwise and Valkyrie were also delayed by the SEC, according to separate Sept. 28 filings, while Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart is expecting the applications from Fidelity, VanEck and WidsomTree to also be pushed back by the securities regulator.

ANOTHER: @BlackRock joins the party on spot #Bitcoin ETF delays. Three out of seven down. https://t.co/Cn9DSibqf8 pic.twitter.com/eJTzDNInCi
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) September 28, 2023

Seyffart expected the delays due to a U.S. government “shutdown” potentially taking place on Oct. 1.

Both chambers of Congress — the House and Senate — haven’t agreed on various funding bills to finance government operations, which has put the short-term future of the U.S. government in jeopardy.

Congress needs to pass 12 separate full-year funding bills by Oct. 1 to avoid a shutdown.

The latest delays came two weeks earlier than the scheduled second deadline date for many applicants, many of whom were expecting to hear from the securities regulator by Oct. 16–19.

The SEC delayed a bundle of spot Bitcoin ETF applicants in early September, when the first deadline was approaching.

Meanwhile, the third set of deadlines for the seven firms is around mid-January, and they could also be delayed. The SEC will have to make a final decision by mid-March at the very latest.

In late August, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas estimated that the probability of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved by the end of 2023 had increased to 75% (from an earlier 65%).

He cited the unanimity and decisiveness at which the U.S. Court of Appeals Circuit reached its decision in Grayscale’s court win over the SEC as the main reason behind the odds increasing.

Balchunas further raised those odds to 95% by the end of 2024.

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Bitwise

Bloomberg ETF analysts raised their odds for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval after the recent Grayscale victory against the SEC.

Bloomberg analysts have raised the probability for an approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of 2023, following a recent Grayscale victory against the federal securities regulator.

In a Aug. 30 post on X (Twitter), Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said they have raised the chances to 75% from an earlier 65% — due to the unanimity and decisiveness at which the United States Court of Appeals Circuit reached its decision in the recent case.

“The judges unanimously repudiated the SEC’s arguments, and the agency will struggle to justify further denials as it faces deadlines,” Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein added in a separate Aug. 30 note.

NEW: @JSeyff & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of '24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w "very little wiggle room" via @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023

In his own post on X, Seyffart added that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals will likely be a “done deal” by Q4 2024, estimating the approval odds to have now skyrocketed to 95% by then.

Balchunas added that given the recent legal and public relations loss, a denial by the SEC will be “politically untennable.”

Beyond the legal loss, there is also the PR loss (which matters bc it sets narratives, changes minds). And this got covered far and wide in mainstream media incl NYT, WSJ, CNN, AP, ABC & on and on. We think the legal and PR loss will combine to make denial politically untenable. pic.twitter.com/Uarh5CszXC
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023

Over the next five days, seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications are due for a “first deadline” decision by the SEC, including Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree and Valkyrie.

Balchunas said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the SEC delays these upcoming Bitcoin spot ETF applications.

But the most likely outcome will be that we unexpectedly wake up to the SEC giving in and approving the Bitcoin spot ETFs in one hit, he said.

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