Mizuho Securities Analyst Issues ‘Crypto Winter’ Warning, Unveils Outlook on Coinbase Stock
Mizuho stock analyst Dan Dolev says he’s not bullish on Coinbase (COIN) due to concerns about the state of the crypto markets.
Speaking on CNBC, Dolev says he foresees a “lingering crypto winter” that will lead to depressed revenues for the top US crypto exchange.
“They [Coinbase] make a lot of money when people buy and sell. So if our playbook continues, there will be a crypto winter, a lingering crypto winter, which we’ve actually figured out in a survey that we did recently.
And that doesn’t bode well. It actually bodes poorly for Coinbase revenues. So I wouldn’t recommend holding on to it.”
Dolev says that even if Coinbase’s revenues were to increase, the take rate, or the percentage in fees and commissions generated, is in a downward trend.
“At the end of the day, even if the volumes go up, the take rate or the yields continues to come down. So we’ve seen a consistent degradation of the yield over time.”
Dolev says that Coinbase’s declining take rate is caused, in part, by increased competition and the entry of low-margin clients.
“There is more institutional and institutional actually pay a much lower fee. Two, there is a lot more Coinbase Pro on the system and Coinbase Pro comes in at a much lower fee than the regular Coinbase.
Three, over time, we expect more competition from the Cash App, from Venmo… We have done surveys that show that 40% of Coinbase traders of Bitcoin trade Bitcoin on other platforms.
So I think over time, you are getting a lot more negatives than positives impacting the yield and competition. And that’s going to drag down revenues regardless of whether it’s a winter or not.”
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