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CME Group premiers ETH futures options trading as the world braces for The Merge

The new offering fits in with the variety of crypto-based products the major derivatives marketplace has developed since launching its pioneering BTC futures contracts in 2017.

Derivatives marketplace Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group) announced the launch of options trading for its Ether (ETH) futures products Monday — the same week as the expected Ethereum merge.

The launch of the new futures contract is “well timed,” CME Group global head of equity and FX products Tim McCourt said in a statement. He said:

“As market participants anticipate the upcoming Ethereum Merge, a potentially game-changing update of one of the largest cryptocurrency networks, interest in Ether derivatives is surging.”

CME Group, the world's leading derivatives marketplace, announced its intention to launch futures options Aug. 18. The contracts will deliver one Ether futures at 50 ether per contract, based on a reference rate of the U.S. dollar price of ether updated daily.

The new contracts join a lineup of existing CME Group products. The group launched the first Bitcoin futures contract in December 2017. Its Bitcoin (BTC) and ETH derivatives contracts saw record-high interest in the second quarter of this year, despite the crypto winter.

CME Group introduced a BTC options trading product in January 2020. CME launched micro Ether futures contracts in December 2021 and in March 2022 launched options contracts for its existing micro BTC and ETH futures at 10% of the size of the tokens. It also offers euro-denominated BTC and ETH futures.

Related: The Merge: Top 5 misconceptions about the anticipated Ethereum upgrade

Ethereum developers have confirmed that the Ethereum blockchain is ready for “The Merge,” during which it will transition from a Proof-of-Work to a Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism. The Merge is expected to occur Sept. 15.

At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $1,715, down 3.23% in 24 hours and down 11.14% in the last month. Anticipation of The Merge and the release of August U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data Sept. 15 could lead to greater price instability.

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3 major mistakes to avoid when trading cryptocurrency futures markets

Crypto traders love to “ape” and make “degen” investments using high leverage in futures markets, but most traders fall victim to these three key mistakes.

Many traders frequently express some relatively large misconceptions about trading cryptocurrency futures, especially on derivatives exchanges outside the realm of traditional finance. The most common mistakes involve futures markets’ price decoupling, fees and the impact of liquidations on the derivatives instrument.

Let’s explore three simple mistakes and misconceptions that traders should avoid when trading crypto futures.

Derivatives contracts differ from spot trading in pricing and trading

Currently, the aggregate futures open interest in the crypto market surpasses $25 billion and retail traders and experienced fund managers use these instruments to leverage their crypto positons.

Futures contracts and other derivatives are often used to reduce risk or increase exposure and are not really meant to be used for degenerate gambling, despite this common interpretation.

Some differences in pricing and trading are usually missed in crypto derivatives contracts. For this reason, traders should at least consider these differences when venturing into futures markets. Even well-versed derivatives investors from traditional assets are prone to making mistakes, so it’s important to understand the existing peculiarities before using leverage.

Most crypto trading services do not use U.S. dollars, even if they display USD quotes. This is a big untold secret and one of the pitfalls that derivatives traders face that causes additional risks and distortions when trading and analyzing futures markets.

The pressing issue is the lack of transparency, so clients don’t really know if the contracts are priced in stablecoin. However, this should not be a major concern, considering there is always the intermediary risk when using centralized exchanges.

Discounted futures sometimes come with surprises

On Sept. 9, Ether (ETH) futures that mature on Dec. 30 are trading for $22 or 1.3% below the current price at spot exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken. The difference emerges from the expectation of merge fork coins that could arise during the Ethereum merge. Buyers of the derivatives contract will not be awarded any of the potentially free coins that Ether holders may receive.

Airdrops can also cause discounted futures prices since the holders of a derivatives contract will not receive the award, but that’s not the only case behind a decoupling since each exchange has its own pricing mechanism and risks. For example, Polkadot quarterly futures on Binance and OKX have been trading at a discount versus DOT price on spot exchanges.

Binance Polkadot (DOT) quarterly futures premium. Source: TradingView

Notice how the futures contract traded at a 1.5% to 4% discount between May and August. This backwardation demonstrates a lack of demand from leverage buyers. However, considering the long-lasting trend and the fact that Polkadot rallied 40% from July 26 to Aug. 12, external factors are likely in play.

The futures contract price has decoupled from spot exchanges, so traders must adjust their targets and entry levels whenever using quarterly markets.

Higher fees and price decoupling should be considered

The core benefit of futures contracts is leverage, or the ability to trade amounts that are larger than the initial deposit (collateral or margin).

Let’s consider a scenario where an investor deposited $100 and buys (long) $2,000 USD worth of Bitcoin (BTC) futures using 20x leverage.

Even though the trading fees on derivatives contracts are usually smaller than spot markers, a hypothetical 0.05% fee applies to the $2,000 trade. Therefore, entering and exiting the position a single time will cost $4, which is equivalent to 4% of the initial deposit. That might not sound much, but such a toll weighs as the turnover increases.

Even if traders understand the additional costs and benefits of using a futures instrument, an unknown element tends to present itself only in volatile market conditions. A decoupling between the derivatives contract and the regular spot exchanges is usually caused by liquidations.

When a trader’s collateral becomes insufficient to cover the risk, the derivatives exchange has a built-in mechanism that closes the position. This liquidation mechanism might cause drastic price action and consequent decoupling from the index price.

Although these distortions will not trigger further liquidations, uninformed investors might react to price fluctuations that only happened in the derivatives contract. To be clear, the derivatives exchanges rely on external pricing sources, usually from regular spot markets, to calculate the reference index price.

There is nothing wrong with these unique processes, but all traders should consider their impact before using leverage. Price decoupling, higher fees and liquidation impact should be analyzed when trading in futures markets.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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3 Bitcoin price metrics suggest today’s 10% pump marked the final cycle bottom

Is the BTC bottom finally in? Data suggests that bears might be losing their tight grip on the market.

The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and stock markets has been unusually high since mid-March, meaning the two asset classes have presented near-identical directional movement. This data might explain why the 10% rally above $21,000 is being dismissed by most traders. Especially considering S&P 500 futures gained 4% in two days. However, Bitcoin trading activity and the derivatives market strongly supports the recent gains.

Curiously, the current Bitcoin rally happened a day after the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released a report investigating the energy usage associated with digital assets. The study recommended enforcing energy reliability, efficiency standards and it also suggested Federal Agencies provide technical assistance and initiate a collaborative process with the industry.

Bitcoin/USD (orange, left) vs. S&P 500 futures (blue). Source: TradingView

Notice how the peaks and valleys on both charts tend to coincide, but the correlation changes as investors’ perceptions and risk assessments vary over time. For example, between May 2021 and July 2021, the correlation was inverted most of the period. Overall, the stock market posted steady gains while the crypto markets collapsed.

More importantly, the chart above shows a huge gap being opened between Bitcoin and the stock market as stocks rallied from mid-July to mid-August. A comparison using the same scale would be better, but that does not work due to the difference in volatility. Still, it is reasonable to conclude that historically these gaps tend to close.

The S&P 500 futures declined 18% in 2022 until Sept. 6, while Bitcoin dropped 60.5% during the same period. So it makes sense to assume that if investors’ appetite for risk assets returns, assets with higher volatility will outperform during a rally.

There are other factors that are in play though, so there is no way to predict the outcome, but the return of investors’ appetite for risk would justify Bitcoin to outperform the stock market and significantly reduce the performance difference.

Pro traders were not expecting Bitcoin to bounce

Bearish traders were liquidated on $120 million in futures contracts, the highest figure since June 13. Typically, one would not expect this outcome considering Bitcoin had lost 13% in the two weeks leading to Sept. 7, but one could assume that short sellers (bears) were caught by surprise as the exchanges’ liquidation engine scrambled to buy those orders.

However, there’s another anecdotal evidence hidden in the liquidation data provided by the derivatives exchanges.

Bitcoin futures 24-hour liquidation data. Source: CoinGlass

Notice how retail-driven exchanges (Binance and Bybit) represented a mere 17.4% of the total orders that were forcefully closed, while their combined market share on Bitcoin futures is 30.6% the data leaves no doubt that the whales at OKX and FTX were the ones being squeezed.

Another interesting piece of data that sets today’s 10% pump apart is Bitcoin dominance, which measures its market share versus all other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin dominance. Source: TradingView

Notice how the indicator spiked from 39% to the present 40.5%, something unseen since May 11 when Bitcoin flash crashed below $26,000. It took another 31 days for the bear market to break the $28,500 support on June 12. Also note that a sharp increase in BTC dominance can happen during rallies and steep price corrections so relying solely on these indicators provides little aid in interpreting market movements.

Fear has been erased from options markets

The 25% delta skew, which is the leading Bitcoin options “fear and greed” metric, improved just enough to enter a neutral level.

Bitcoin 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

If option investors feared a price crash, the skew indicator would move above 12%, whereas investor excitement tends to reflect a negative 12% skew. After peaking at 18% on Sept. 7, the metric currently stands at 12% which is the very edge of the neutral market. Therefore, the Bitcoin pump on Sept. 9 signaled that professional investors are no longer demanding excessive premiums for protective put options.

These three indicators back the relevance of Bitcoin’s recent 10% pump. A $120 million liquidation on leverage shorts (bears) was concentrated on less “retail-oriented” derivatives exchanges, the 1.5% hike in Bitcoin’s dominance rate and options traders pricing similar upside and downside risks all suggest that Bitcoin may have finally found a bottom.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin is pinned below $20K as the macro climate stifles hope for a sustainable BTC bull run

BTC bulls have a chance to profit from this week’s $410 million options expiry, but the factors pulling down equities markets reduce the chance of Bitcoin changing its trend.

Bitcoin (BTC) crashed below $19,000 on Sept. 6, driving the price to its lowest level in 80 days. The movement not only completely erased the entirety of the 32% gains accrued from July until Aug. 15, it also wiped out $246 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts.

Bitcoin price is down for the year but it’s important to compare its price action against other assets. Oil prices are currently down 23.5% since July, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has dropped 36.4% in 30 days and Moderna (MRNA), a pharmaceutical and biotechnology company, is down 30.4% in the same period.

Inflationary pressure and fear of a global recession have driven investors away from riskier assets. By seeking shelter in cash positions, mainly in the dollar itself, this protective movement has caused the U.S. Treasuries' 5-year yield to reach 3.38%, nearing its highest level in 15 years. By demanding a loftier premium to hold government debt, investors are signaling a lack of confidence in the current inflation controls.

Data released on Sept. 7 shows that China's exports grew 7.1% in August from a year earlier, after increasing by 18% in July. Furthermore, Germany's industrial orders data on Sept. 6 showed a 13.6% contraction in July versus the previous year. Thus, until there's some decoupling from traditional markets, there's not much hope for a sustainable Bitcoin bull run.

Bears were overly optimistic

The open interest for the Sept. 9 options expiry is $410 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears became too overconfident. These traders were not expecting $18,700 to hold because their bets targeted $18,500 and below.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Sept. 9. Source: CoinGlass

The 0.77 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $180 million call (buy) open interest and the $230 million put (sell) options. Currently, Bitcoin stands near $18,900, meaning most bets from both sides will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin's price remains below $20,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Sept. 9, only $13 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to buy Bitcoin at $20,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.

Bears aim for $18,000 to secure a $90 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Sept. 9 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $17,000 and $18,000: 0 calls vs. 4,300 puts. Bears completely dominate, profiting $130 million.
  • Between $18,000 and $19,000: 0 calls vs. 5,050 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $90 million.
  • Between $19,000 and $20,000: 700 calls vs. 1,900 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $50 million.
  • Between $20,000 and $21,000: 2,050 calls vs. 2,200 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Related: Bitcoin price hits 10-week low amid 'painful' U.S. dollar rally warning

Bulls have until Sept. 9 to ease their pain

Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $20,000 on Sept. 9 to avoid a potential $130 million loss. On the other hand, the bears' best-case scenario requires a slight push below $18,000 to maximize their gains.

Bitcoin bulls just had $246 million leverage long positions liquidated in two days, so they might have less margin required to drive the price higher. In other words, bears have a head start to peg BTC below $19,000 ahead of the weekly options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price falls under $19K as data shows pro traders avoiding leverage longs

BTC nose-dived to its lowest level since July 13, but data shows pro traders remain skeptical of a quick recovery.

An $860 surprise price correction on Sept. 6 took Bitcoin (BTC) from $19,820 to $18,960 in less than two hours. The movement caused $74 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations at derivatives exchanges, the largest in almost three weeks. The current $18,733 level is the lowest since July 13 and marks a 24% correction from the rally to $25,000 on Aug. 15.

Bitcoin/USD 30-min price. Source: TradingView

It is worth highlighting that a 2% pump toward $20,200 happened in the early hours of Sept. 6, but the move was quickly subdued and Bitcoin resumed trading near $19,800 within the hour. Ether’s (ETH) price action was more interesting, gaining 7% in the 48 hours preceding the market correction.

Any conspiracy theories regarding investors changing their position to favor the altcoin can be dismissed as Ether dropped 5.6% on Sept. 6, while Bitcoin's $860 loss represents a 3.8% change.

The market has been in a bit of a rut since Aug. 27 comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was followed by a $1.25 trillion loss in U.S. stocks in a single day. At the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Powell said that larger interest rate hikes were still firmly on the table, causing the S&P 500 to close down 3.4% that day.

Let’s take a look at crypto derivatives data to understand whether investors have been pricing higher odds of a downturn.

Pro traders have been bearish since last week

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Still, they are professional traders' preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

In healthy markets, the indicator should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium to cover costs and associated risks. So one can safely say that derivatives traders had been neutral to bearish for the past month because the Bitcoin futures premium remained below 3% the entire time. This data reflects professional traders' unwillingness to add leveraged long (bull) positions.

One must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument. For example, the 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 12%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below negative 12%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

The 30-day delta skew had been above the 12% threshold since Sept 1, signaling options traders were less inclined to offer downside protection. These two derivatives metrics suggest that the Bitcoin price dump on Sept. 6 might have been partially expected, which explains the low impact on liquidations.

In comparison, the $2,500 Bitcoin drop on Aug. 18 caused $210 million worth of leveraged long (buyers) liquidations. Still, the prevailing bearish sentiment does not necessarily translate to adverse price action. Therefore, one should tread carefully when whales and market markers are less inclined to add leverage longs and offer downside protection using options.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Former CFTC commissioner Jill Sommers joins FTX US Derivatives board

The addition of Jill Sommers followed former CFTC commissioner Mark Wetjen becoming FTX US' head of policy and regulatory strategy in November 2021.

Jill Sommers, who served as a commissioner at the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has joined the board of directors for FTX US Derivatives.

In a Thursday announcement, crypto exchange FTX US’ derivatives arm said Sommers had become its latest board member in a move seeming to increase the company’s regulatory efforts. Sommers served as a CFTC commissioner from 2007 to 2013 under former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush and was the managing director of regulatory affairs for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

According to Sommers, FTX US Derivatives aimed to become “the most regulated digital asset exchange in the world.” She said the board would work closely with regulators, suggesting discussions with the CFTC and others within the United States government.

“Adding Jill's wealth of experience in the derivatives landscape is an invaluable resource for our board as we traverse through the evolving digital asset ecosystem and its integration into the broader financial market structure,” said FTX US Derivatives CEO Zach Dexter.

Sommers’ addition to the board followed former CFTC commissioner Mark Wetjen joining FTX US as the firm’s head of policy and regulatory strategy in November 2021. Wetjen, who served as a commissioner from 2011 to 2015 and acting chair in 2014, has previously supported legislative efforts by the crypto exchange connected to expanding the CFTC’s authority. FTX US has proposed amending its clearing house license to include margined crypto-based products without intermediaries.

Related: FTX and FTX US seek even more funding following acquisitions

Members of Congress have several pieces of legislation that aim to provide regulatory clarity for crypto offerings, whether that means having them fall under the purview of the CFTC or the Securities and Exchange Commission. On Aug. 3, four U.S. lawmakers introduced the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act, a bill that proposed expanding the role of the CFTC by requiring crypto firms to adhere to many of the same standards for financial institutions dealing in commodities — registering with the regulator and making certain disclosures on trading practices and risks. 

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Bybit expands spot USDC trading pairs as support for stablecoins grows

The crypto derivatives exchange has partnered with Circle to expand its suite of USDC offerings; traders will also have access to auto conversions between the stablecoin and U.S. dollars.

Crypto derivatives exchange Bybit has partnered with stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Financial to expand its suite of spot trading pairs denominated in USD Coin (USDC) — a move the company says will increase retail and institutional access to USDC-settled products. 

Under the partnership agreement, Bybit will expand its USDC spot pairs to include several additional cryptocurrencies and make auto conversions between the United States dollar and USDC available, the company disclosed Wednesday. Bybit said it intends to collaborate with Circle on other initiatives to boost stablecoin and crypto adoption.

Currently, Bybit supports around 35 USDC spot pairs, according to a Circle representative. 

Bybit began offering USDC options and perpetual contracts in April of this year, giving traders more ways to hedge against movements in the spot market. At the time, Bybit CEO Ben Zhou told Cointelegraph that the options rollout was in response to growing user demand. On Wednesday, Zhou said the launch of USDC options had been a success and that Bybit was looking to “further develop our working relationship with Circle.”

In addition to USDC options, Bybit plans to make Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) options available to traders soon.

Related: Bitcoin derivatives show a lack of confidence from bulls

Circle’s USDC is the world’s second-largest stablecoin with a market capitalization of $52.3 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. Only Tether’s USDT commands more market penetration with a $67.6 billion market cap.

Circle released a full breakdown of its USDC reserves in July for the period ending June 30, 2022. At the time, about 75.6% of its backing was in short-term U.S. Treasury bills. The remainder of its position was in cash deposits at domestic banks.

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Hawkish Fed comments and Bitcoin derivatives data point to further BTC downside

BTC and stocks sold-off after comments from the Federal Reserve re-emphasized the Fed’s commitment to lowering high inflation in the United States.

A $750 pump on Aug. 26 took Bitcoin (BTC) from $21,120 to $21,870 in less than two hours. However, the movement was completely erased after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the bank’s commitment to contain inflation by tightening the economy. Following Powell’s speech, BTC price dropped as low as $20,700. 

Bitcoin/USD 30-min price. Source: TradingView

At Jackson Hole, Powell specifically mentioned that "the historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy." Right after those remarks, the U.S. stock market indexes reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.2% within the hour.

On the Bitcoin chart, the affable “Bart candle,” a reference to the shape of Bart Simpson’s head, and a descriptor of BTC’s up and down price action, surfaced. Outside of these unpredictable technical analysis indicators, there are other indicators that pointed to Bitcon’s broader neutral-to-bearish sentiment.

Regulators up the pace on crypto legislation

Newsflow for cryptocurrencies has been negative for quite some time and this is also weighing on investor sentiment. On Aug. 24, the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued cease and desist letters to five companies for allegedly making false representations about deposit insurance related to cryptocurrencies, including FTX US.

On Aug. 25, India-based crypto exchange CoinSwitch had its premises searched by Anti-Money Laundering agents over alleged violations of forex laws. Launched in India in 2020, CoinSwitch successfully raised capital from Coinbase Ventures, Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia and Tiger Global.

Lastly, on Aug. 26, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission postponed a decision for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) by global investment firm VanEck. Even though the approval odds were remote, it reinforced the anti-crypto sentiment from the regulator.

Consequently, crypto investors are faced with lingering uncertainty despite the seemingly helpful inflationary scenario, which should favor supply capped assets. For this reason, analyzing crypto derivatives is essential to understanding whether investors have been pricing higher odds of a downturn.

Pro traders were neutral-to-bearish ahead of the dump

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Still, they are professional traders' preferred instruments because they prevent the perpetual fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a contract.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

In healthy markets, the indicator should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium to cover costs and associated risks. Yet, that has not been the case because the Bitcoin futures premium remained below 1.8% the entire time. This data reflects professional traders' unwillingness to add leveraged long (bull) positions.

Related: CME Bitcoin futures see record discount amid 'very bearish sentiment'

One must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument. For example, the 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 12%. The 30-day delta skew had been ranging near the neutral-to-bearish threshold since Aug. 22, signaling options traders were less inclined to offer downside protection.

These two derivatives metrics suggest that the Bitcoin price dump on Aug. 26 might have followed the traditional stock market performance, but crypto traders were definitely not expecting a positive move.

Derivatives data leaves no room for bullish interpretations because the sentiment worsened after Powell’s comments and they further indicate weakening market conditions.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Wen moon? Probably not soon: Why Bitcoin traders should make friends with the trend

Recurring bear flags and the Fed’s telegraphed monetary policy are painting a roadmap for BTC’s future price action.

The impact of Federal Reserve policy and Bitcoin’s higher timeframe market structure suggest that BTC price is not yet ready for a trend reversal. 

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to chop below the $22,000 level and the wider narrative among traders and the mainstream media suggests that a risk-off sentiment is a dominant perspective ahead of this week’s Jackson Hole summit.

Over the three-day symposium, the Federal Reserve is expected to clarify its perspective on inflation, interest rate hikes and the overall health of the United States economy.

In the meantime, traders on Crypto Twitter continue to fantisize about a “Fed pivot” where interest hikes will be curtailed below 0.25 basis points and some form of monetary easing re-emerges, but the likelihood of the Fed adopting a dovish point-of-view in the short-term seems unrealistic, given the central bank’s 2% inflation target.

Regarding Bitcoin’s most recent price action, an old saying among traders is:

“Fade the short-term trend in favor of the long-term trend.”

From a bird’s-eye-view, BTC price is in a clear downtrend with a four-month long stretch of recurring bear flags that continue to see continuation.

Sure, the on-chain data hints that maybe price is at a bottom.

Of course, aggregate volumes and certain on-chain data looking at whale and shrimp BTC addresses may point toward accumulation.

Yeah, the open interest in BTC and Ether continues to reach record highs and this adds fuel to the bullish ETH Merge and ETH proof-of-work hard fork tokens narrative triggering a juicy short squeeze on BTC and ETH.

Any of those things can happen, but beware the narrator of those hopium-infused dreams and remember that the trend is always a good friend that a trader can lean on.

As unpleasant as it might sound, the trend is down. Bitcoin continues to meet resistance at its long-term descending trendline and the price has failed to secure resistance at key moving averages like the 20, 50 and 200-day MA.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Tradingview

Each price drop is simply creating a flag-pole, and the ensuing “consolidation” creates the flag of the bear flag continuation pattern. As the pink boxes on the daily chart shows, BTC price simply trades within a defined range before breaking below it into underlying liquidity shown by the volume profile visible range and liquidity maps.

Essentially, there’s “nothing to see here” until price paints a few daily candles that reflect higher highs, i.e., BTC needs to clear $25,000 and close that volume profile gap in the $25,000 to $29,000 zone.

From there, one would either want to see consolidation within that new higher range, or continuation of a trend reversal where the 20-MA and 50-MA function as support. As mentioned earlier, of course there are a ton of other data points that make a strong case for why the current price range is a buy zone, but what may be true for one trader is not necessarily the case for all.

Some investors can afford to open swing longs here and lower and ride it out because they are flush and that’s part of their plan. Others have a smaller purse and can’t afford the lost opportunity cost of being locked into a red position for months on end. Traders are always encouraged to do their own research, make their own thesis and manage risk in a way that is best for their situation.

Jackson Hole is coming up and the Fed needs to continue rate hikes until inflation and other metrics are under control. Equities markets remain tightly correlated with Bitcoin price, so the tell will be whether or not SPX and DJI continue to steamroll higher, or if future actions from the Federal Reserve begin to put a damper on the recent bullish momentum.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Monthly Ethereum options data suggests $2K will remain an elusive target

On August 26, $1.27 billion in ETH options expire and data signals that the price is likely to stay pinned under $2,000 until the Merge.

Since failing to close above the $2,000 mark, Ether (ETH) price has faced a steep 16.8% correction, but this was not enough to give bears an edge in the August $1.27 billion monthly options expiry.

Ether USD price index, 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, there are mixed feelings about the network’s upcoming change to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus network and analysts like @DWhitmanBTC believe the potential benefits of PoS do not supersede the absence of a supply cap and multiple changes in the monetary policy over time.

Regardless of the long-term impact, Ether price was positively impacted by the tentative Merge migration date announcement from a July 14 Ethereum developers call. Influencer and technical analyst Crypto Rover said that Ether would "drop so hard on the Merge day," as a result of traders unwinding their positions.

One thing is for sure, leveraged Ether buyers were not expecting the steep correction on Aug. 18 and data from Coinglass shows the move liquidated $208 million at derivatives exchanges.

Bears placed their bets below $1,600

The open interest for Ether's July monthly options expiry is $1.27 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were overly-optimistic after ETH traded below $1,600 between Aug. 20 and 22. Breaking above that resistance surprised bears because only 17% of the put (sell) options for Aug. 26 have been placed above that price level.

Ether options aggregate open interest for Aug. 26. Source: Coinglass

The 1.18 call-to-put ratio shows the dominance of the $685 million call (buy) open interest against the $585 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Ether stands near $1,650, most of these bearish bets will become worthless.

If Ether's price remains above $1,600 at 8:00 am UTC on Aug. 26, only $95 million put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because a right to sell Ether at $1,600 or lower is worthless if Ether trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls completely dominate the August expiry

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Aug. 26 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $1,500 and $1,600: 108,200 calls vs. 103,900 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
  • Between $1,600 and $1,700: 45,900 calls vs. 90,000 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $150 million.
  • Between $1,700 and $1,800: 192,700 calls vs. 26,000 puts. Bulls' advantage increases to $290 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Ether above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Related: Ethereum Merge in trouble? Developers find bugs ahead of the planned update

Bears could avoid a $150 million loss

Ether bulls need to sustain the price above $1,600 on Aug. 26 to secure a $150 million profit. On the other hand, the bears' best-case scenario requires a push below $1,600 to balance the scales and call it a draw.

Considering the brutal $270 million leverage long (buy) positions liquidated on Aug. 18 and 19, bulls should have less margin to pressure ETH price higher. With that said, bulls are unlikely to have the means to drive ETH above $1,700 ahead of the August monthly options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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