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Long the Bitcoin bottom, or watch and wait? Bitcoin traders plan their next move

Bitcoin price dropped to $18,270, but derivatives traders didn’t flinch. Here is why.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a 9% correction in the early hours of Sept. 19 as the price traded down to $18,270. Even though the price quickly bounced back above $19,000, this level was the lowest price seen in three months. However, pro traders held their ground and were not inclined to take the loss, as measured by derivatives contracts.

Bitcoin/USD price index, 2-hour. Source: TradingView

Pinpointing the rationale behind the crash is extremely difficult, but some say United States President Joe Biden's interview on CBS "60 Minutes" raised concerns about global warfare. When responding to whether U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a China-led invasion, Biden replied: "Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack."

Others cite China's central bank lowering the borrowing cost of 14-day reverse repurchase agreements to 2.15% from 2.25%. The monetary authority is showing signs of weakness in the current market conditions by injecting more money to stimulate the economy amid inflationary pressure.

There is also pressure from the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve Committee meeting on Sept. 21, which is expected to hike interest rates by 0.75% as central bankers scramble to ease the inflationary pressure. As a result, yields on the 5-year Treasury notes soared to 3.70%, the highest level since November 2007.

Let's look at crypto derivatives data to understand whether professional investors changed their position while Bitcoin crashed below $19,000.

There was no impact on BTC derivatives metrics during the 9% crash

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets, but they are professional traders' preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

The indicator should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. Thus, one can safely say that derivatives traders had been neutral to bearish for the past two weeks as the Bitcoin futures premium held below 2% the entire time.

More importantly, the shakeout on Sept. 19 did not cause any meaningful impact on the indicator, which stands at 0.5%. This data reflects professional traders' unwillingness to add leveraged short (bear) positions at current price levels.

One must also analyze the Bitcoin options to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument. For example, the 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 12%. On the other hand, bullish trends tend to drive the skew indicator below negative 12%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

The 30-day delta skew had been near the 12% threshold since Sept. 15, and signaled that options traders were less inclined to offer downside protection. The negative price move on Sept. 19 was not enough to flip those whales bearish, and the indicator currently stands at 11%.

Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum crash continues as US 10-year Treasury yield surpasses June high

The bottom could be in, but it depends on macroeconomic and global hurdles

Derivatives metrics suggest that the Bitcoin price dump on Sept. 19 was partially expected, which explains why the $19,000 support was regained in less than two hours. Still, none of this will matter if the U.S. Federal Reserve raises the interest rates above the consensus or if stock markets collapse further due to the energy crisis and political tensions.

Therefore, traders should continuously scan macroeconomic data and monitor the central banks' attitude before trying to pin a flag on the ultimate bottom of the current bear market. Presently, the odds of Bitcoin testing sub-$18,000 prices remain high, especially considering the weak demand for leverage longs on BTC futures.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

White House: America Will Be the Bitcoin Superpower of the World

Can Unlimited Fiat and Governments Suppress Bitcoin’s Price? 2 Analysts Discuss the Theory and Odds

Can Unlimited Fiat and Governments Suppress Bitcoin’s Price? 2 Analysts Discuss the Theory and OddsThe price of bitcoin has dropped 72.9% in USD value since the crypto asset’s all-time high ten months ago and recently, bitcoin’s been trading for just under $19K per unit. This week two prominent crypto market influencers have been discussing how governments could suppress bitcoin markets by shorting the crypto asset. However, one of the […]

White House: America Will Be the Bitcoin Superpower of the World

Tired of losing money? Here are 2 reasons why retail investors always lose

A majority of “traders” end up being losers with empty portfolios. Here is exactly why.

A quick flick through Twitter, any social media investing club, or investing-themed Reddit will quickly allow one to find handfuls of traders who have vastly excelled throughout a month, semester, or even a year. Believe it or not, most successful traders cherry-pick periods or use different accounts simultaneously to ensure there’s always a winning position to display.

On the other hand, millions of traders blow up their portfolios and turn out empty-handed, especially when using leverage. Take, for example, the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) which requires that brokers disclose the percentage of their accounts in the region that are unprofitably trading derivatives. According to the data, 69% to 84% of retail investors lose money

Similarly, a study by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission found that 70% of foreign exchange traders lose money every quarter, and eToro, a multinational broker with 27 million users, reported that nearly 80% of retail investors lost money over 12 months.

The same pattern emerges in every market across different continents and decades: retail traders seldom sustain profitable operations. Still, novice and experienced investors think they can overcome that bias due to ingenuity or mass marketing campaigns from influencers, exchanges and algorithmic trading systems.

Below are the 4 culprits behind the inevitable failure of retail traders. There is no easy solution aside from a long-term mentality and dollar-cost average-based strategy of buying a fixed amount every week or month.

Exchange servers have downtime and there are trade rollbacks

In June 2021, the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority fined Robinhood $70 million, alleging “widespread and significant harm” and “misleading information to millions of its customers” starting in September 2016. Specifically, the regulator cited the platform’s outages between 2018 and 2018, affecting clients’ ability to execute buy and sell orders during significant market volatility periods.

On 8 March 2022, London Metal Exchange (LME), the largest commodities trading venue in Europe, canceled all the trades in nickel futures and deferred the delivery of all physically settled contracts. The reason cited by Bloomberg was “unprofitable short positions, in a massive squeeze that has embroiled the largest nickel producer as well as a major Chinese bank.”

Notice that such a decision is vastly worse for a broker that decides to deliberately halt their platform. In those cases, at least the client can choose another intermediary. A rollback, or trade cancellation, is far more problematic because users had already expected the profits, or maybe even hedged, meaning the trade was part of a broader strategy.

High-frequency trading and unlimited funding

Professional traders use colocation servers, placing a server as close as possible close to an exchange's data center because this significantly reduces transmission delays. These exchanges offer premium services to high-end clients, including the private housing servers on-site.

Besides requiring a significant amount of volume to cover the costs, colocation servers provide high-frequency traders the benefit of running strategies such as pinging, which uses a series of smaller orders to scope whales trying to enter or exit the market.

In addition to being heavily funded, these arbitrage traders usually have additional funding from exchanges. These benefits basically mean they can post trades with no collateral, similar to having credits, providing them with a huge advantage over retail investors.

The evidence? Three Arrows Capital's (3AC) insolvency negatively impacted Deribit exchange, which was forced to cover the loss themselves. Moreover, prominent Bitcoin Cash (BCH) figure, Roger Ver, is being sued by the exchange CoinFLEX for $84 million allegedly owed due to liquidations.

Retail traders need to understand that there is no room for amateurs and realize the intricate relationship between exchanges, venture capitalists, market makers and whales. Whether or not a partnership is on paper, a mutual benefit ensures that these players have preferential access to pre-seed funding rounds, listings and market access.

The only way for investors to opt out of losing money is to give up on trading, and avoid leverage trading like the plague. In reality, investors with six months or longer timeframe stand a chance of being profitable in each of their positions.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

White House: America Will Be the Bitcoin Superpower of the World

Volatility expected as $490M in ETH options expire shortly after the Ethereum Merge

The outcome of the Ethereum Merge will be a primary price drive that dictates whether ETH bears profit from this week’s $490 million options expiry.

Given the current state of the wider crypto market, some traders might be surprised to learn that Ether (ETH) has been trading in an ascending trend for the past 17 days. While the entire cryptocurrency market experienced a 10% decline on Sept. 13, Ether's price held firm near the $1,570 support level.

Ether/USD price index. Source: TradingView

In less than 12 hours, the Ethereum network is scheduled to undergo its largest ever upgrade and the possibility of extreme volatility should not be ignored. The transition to a proof-of-stake network will be a game changer for multiple reasons, including a 98.5% cut in energy use and reduced coin inflation.

During an upgrade, there is always the risk of multiple malfunctions, especially in more complex systems like the Ethereum Virtual Machine processing. Even if the upgrade has been relatively smooth on previous testnet versions, it is impossible to predict the outcome of the decentralized applications and second-layer solutions plugged into Ethereum’s ecosystem.

That is precisely why the $490 million Ether options expiry on Aug. 16 will put a lot of price pressure on both sides, even though bulls seem slightly better positioned as Ether nears $1,600.

Most bearish bets are placed below $1,600

Ether's failure to break the $2,000 resistance on Aug. 14 and its subsequent plunge to $1,420 on Aug. 29 gave the bears the signal to expect continuation of the downtrend. That becomes evident as only 12% of the put (sell) options for Sept. 16 have been placed above $1,600. Thus, Ether bulls are better positioned for the expiry of $490 million weekly options.

Ether options aggregate open interest for Sept. 16. Source: CoinGlass

A broader view using the 1.06 call-to-put ratio shows a relatively balanced situation with bullish bets (calls) open interest at $252 million versus the $238 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Ether currently stands near $1,600, both sides have similar odds of moving the needle.

If Ether price remains below $1,600 at 8:00 am UTC on Sept. 16, only $27 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to buy Ether at $1,600 or $1,700 if it trades below that level on expiry.

Bears could pocket a $100 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Sept. 16 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $1,400 and $1,500: 33,000 calls vs. 2,600 puts. The net result favors bears by $100 million.
  • Between $1,500 and $1,700: 29,600 calls vs. 29,000 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
  • Between $1,700 and $1,800: 49,200 calls vs. 3,800 puts. The net result favors bulls by $80 million.
  • Between $1,800 and $1,900: 81,400 calls vs. 700 puts. Bulls increase their gains to $145 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Macroeconomic turmoil might have helped ETH bears

Ether bulls need to sustain the price above $1,500 on Sept. 16 to balance the scales and avoid a potential $100 million loss. However, Ether bulls were unlucky on Sept. 12 after the United States stock markets fell by $1.6 trillion on Sept. 13 due to a hotter-than-expected inflation report.

There's absolutely no way to predict the outcome of Ethereum Merge, let alone its price impact. However, analysis suggests these three indicators should be watched by traders during the Merge event.

One can never guess the consequences of unexpected delays or even the positive impact of a smooth transition because investors could have priced in the Merge in advance, triggering a "sell the news" event. Consequently, both bulls and bears still have a shot on the Sept. 16 weekly options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

White House: America Will Be the Bitcoin Superpower of the World

Bitcoin and altcoins pop to the upside, but upcoming macro events could cap the rally

The FOMC's decision on Sept. 21 could cause traders to reduce their risk exposure, limiting the recent gains seen across the crypto market.

The 13% gains in the six days leading to Sept. 12 brought the total crypto market capitalization closer to $1.1 trillion, but this was not enough to break the descending trend. As a result, the overall trend for the past 55 days has been bearish, with the latest support test on Sept. 7 at a $950 billion total market cap.

Total crypto market cap, USD. Source: TradingView

An improvement in traditional markets has accompanied the recent 13% crypto market rally. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index gained 6.2% since Sept. 6 and WTI oil prices rallied 7.8% since Sept. 7. This data reinforces the high correlation versus traditional assets and places the spotlight on the importance of closely monitoring macroeconomic conditions.

The correlation metric ranges from a negative 1, meaning select markets move in opposite directions, to a positive 1, which reflects a perfectly symmetrical movement. A disparity or a lack of relationship between the two assets would be represented by 0.

Nasdaq futures and Bitcoin/USD 50-day correlation. Source: TradingView

As displayed above, the Nasdaq composite index and Bitcoin 50-day correlation currently stand at 0.74, which has been the norm throughout 2022.

The FED’s Sept. 21 decision will set the mood

Stock market investors are anxiously awaiting the Sept. 21 U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank is expected to raise interest rates again. While the market consensus is a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate hike, investors are looking for signs that the economic tightening is fading away.

A report on the U.S. Consumer Price Index, a relevant inflation metric, is expected on Sept. 13 and on Sept. 15, investor attention will be glued to the U.S. retail sales and industrial production data.

Currently, the regulatory sentiment remains largely unfavorable, especially after the enforcement director for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gurbir Grewal, said the financial regulator would continue to investigate and bring enforcement actions against crypto firms.

Altcoins rallied, but pro traders were resilient to leverage longs

Below are the winners and losers of last week’s total crypto market capitalization 8.3% gain to $1.08 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) stood out with a 12.5% gain, which led its dominance rate to hit 41.3%, the highest since Aug. 9.

Weekly winners and losers among the top-80 coins. Source: Nomics

Terra (LUNA) jumped 107.7% after Terra approved a proposal on Sept. 9 for an additional airdrop of over 19 million LUNA tokens until Oct. 4.

RavenCoin (RVN) gained 65.8% after the network hash rate reached 5.7 TH per second, the highest level since January 2022.

Cosmos (ATOM) gained 24.6% after Crypto research firm Delphi Digital shifted the focus of its research and development arm to the Cosmos ecosystem on Sept. 8.

Even with these gains, a single week of positive performance is not enough to interpret how professional traders are positioned. Those interested in tracking whales and market markers should analyze derivatives markets. Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) are demanding more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

Accumulated 7-day perpetual futures funding rate on Sept. 12. Source: Coinglass

Perpetual contracts reflected a neutral sentiment as the accumulated funding rate was relatively flat in most cases. The only exceptions have been Ether (ETH) and Ether Classic (ETC), even though a 0.30% weekly cost to maintain a short (bear) position should not be deemed relevant. Moreover, those cases are likely related to the Ethereum Merge, the transition to a proof-of-stake network expected for Sept. 15.

Related: Glimpses of positive momentum in an overall bearish market? Report

The odds of a downtrend are still high

The positive 8.3% weekly performance can't be deemed a trend change considering the move was likely tied to the recovery in traditional markets. Furthermore, one could assume that investors are likely to price in the risk of additional regulatory impact after Gary Gensler’s remarks.

There is still uncertainty on potential macroeconomic triggers and traders are not likely to add risk ahead of important events like the FOMC interest rate decision. For this reason, bears have reason to believe that the prevailing longer-term descending formation will resume in the upcoming weeks.

Professional traders' lack of interest in leverage longs is evident in the neutral futures funding rate and this is another sign of negative sentiment from investors. If the crypto total market capitalization tests the bearish pattern support level at $940 million, traders should expect a 12.5% price drop from the current $1.08 billion level.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

White House: America Will Be the Bitcoin Superpower of the World

CME Group premiers ETH futures options trading as the world braces for The Merge

The new offering fits in with the variety of crypto-based products the major derivatives marketplace has developed since launching its pioneering BTC futures contracts in 2017.

Derivatives marketplace Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group) announced the launch of options trading for its Ether (ETH) futures products Monday — the same week as the expected Ethereum merge.

The launch of the new futures contract is “well timed,” CME Group global head of equity and FX products Tim McCourt said in a statement. He said:

“As market participants anticipate the upcoming Ethereum Merge, a potentially game-changing update of one of the largest cryptocurrency networks, interest in Ether derivatives is surging.”

CME Group, the world's leading derivatives marketplace, announced its intention to launch futures options Aug. 18. The contracts will deliver one Ether futures at 50 ether per contract, based on a reference rate of the U.S. dollar price of ether updated daily.

The new contracts join a lineup of existing CME Group products. The group launched the first Bitcoin futures contract in December 2017. Its Bitcoin (BTC) and ETH derivatives contracts saw record-high interest in the second quarter of this year, despite the crypto winter.

CME Group introduced a BTC options trading product in January 2020. CME launched micro Ether futures contracts in December 2021 and in March 2022 launched options contracts for its existing micro BTC and ETH futures at 10% of the size of the tokens. It also offers euro-denominated BTC and ETH futures.

Related: The Merge: Top 5 misconceptions about the anticipated Ethereum upgrade

Ethereum developers have confirmed that the Ethereum blockchain is ready for “The Merge,” during which it will transition from a Proof-of-Work to a Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism. The Merge is expected to occur Sept. 15.

At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $1,715, down 3.23% in 24 hours and down 11.14% in the last month. Anticipation of The Merge and the release of August U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data Sept. 15 could lead to greater price instability.

White House: America Will Be the Bitcoin Superpower of the World

3 major mistakes to avoid when trading cryptocurrency futures markets

Crypto traders love to “ape” and make “degen” investments using high leverage in futures markets, but most traders fall victim to these three key mistakes.

Many traders frequently express some relatively large misconceptions about trading cryptocurrency futures, especially on derivatives exchanges outside the realm of traditional finance. The most common mistakes involve futures markets’ price decoupling, fees and the impact of liquidations on the derivatives instrument.

Let’s explore three simple mistakes and misconceptions that traders should avoid when trading crypto futures.

Derivatives contracts differ from spot trading in pricing and trading

Currently, the aggregate futures open interest in the crypto market surpasses $25 billion and retail traders and experienced fund managers use these instruments to leverage their crypto positons.

Futures contracts and other derivatives are often used to reduce risk or increase exposure and are not really meant to be used for degenerate gambling, despite this common interpretation.

Some differences in pricing and trading are usually missed in crypto derivatives contracts. For this reason, traders should at least consider these differences when venturing into futures markets. Even well-versed derivatives investors from traditional assets are prone to making mistakes, so it’s important to understand the existing peculiarities before using leverage.

Most crypto trading services do not use U.S. dollars, even if they display USD quotes. This is a big untold secret and one of the pitfalls that derivatives traders face that causes additional risks and distortions when trading and analyzing futures markets.

The pressing issue is the lack of transparency, so clients don’t really know if the contracts are priced in stablecoin. However, this should not be a major concern, considering there is always the intermediary risk when using centralized exchanges.

Discounted futures sometimes come with surprises

On Sept. 9, Ether (ETH) futures that mature on Dec. 30 are trading for $22 or 1.3% below the current price at spot exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken. The difference emerges from the expectation of merge fork coins that could arise during the Ethereum merge. Buyers of the derivatives contract will not be awarded any of the potentially free coins that Ether holders may receive.

Airdrops can also cause discounted futures prices since the holders of a derivatives contract will not receive the award, but that’s not the only case behind a decoupling since each exchange has its own pricing mechanism and risks. For example, Polkadot quarterly futures on Binance and OKX have been trading at a discount versus DOT price on spot exchanges.

Binance Polkadot (DOT) quarterly futures premium. Source: TradingView

Notice how the futures contract traded at a 1.5% to 4% discount between May and August. This backwardation demonstrates a lack of demand from leverage buyers. However, considering the long-lasting trend and the fact that Polkadot rallied 40% from July 26 to Aug. 12, external factors are likely in play.

The futures contract price has decoupled from spot exchanges, so traders must adjust their targets and entry levels whenever using quarterly markets.

Higher fees and price decoupling should be considered

The core benefit of futures contracts is leverage, or the ability to trade amounts that are larger than the initial deposit (collateral or margin).

Let’s consider a scenario where an investor deposited $100 and buys (long) $2,000 USD worth of Bitcoin (BTC) futures using 20x leverage.

Even though the trading fees on derivatives contracts are usually smaller than spot markers, a hypothetical 0.05% fee applies to the $2,000 trade. Therefore, entering and exiting the position a single time will cost $4, which is equivalent to 4% of the initial deposit. That might not sound much, but such a toll weighs as the turnover increases.

Even if traders understand the additional costs and benefits of using a futures instrument, an unknown element tends to present itself only in volatile market conditions. A decoupling between the derivatives contract and the regular spot exchanges is usually caused by liquidations.

When a trader’s collateral becomes insufficient to cover the risk, the derivatives exchange has a built-in mechanism that closes the position. This liquidation mechanism might cause drastic price action and consequent decoupling from the index price.

Although these distortions will not trigger further liquidations, uninformed investors might react to price fluctuations that only happened in the derivatives contract. To be clear, the derivatives exchanges rely on external pricing sources, usually from regular spot markets, to calculate the reference index price.

There is nothing wrong with these unique processes, but all traders should consider their impact before using leverage. Price decoupling, higher fees and liquidation impact should be analyzed when trading in futures markets.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

White House: America Will Be the Bitcoin Superpower of the World

3 Bitcoin price metrics suggest today’s 10% pump marked the final cycle bottom

Is the BTC bottom finally in? Data suggests that bears might be losing their tight grip on the market.

The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and stock markets has been unusually high since mid-March, meaning the two asset classes have presented near-identical directional movement. This data might explain why the 10% rally above $21,000 is being dismissed by most traders. Especially considering S&P 500 futures gained 4% in two days. However, Bitcoin trading activity and the derivatives market strongly supports the recent gains.

Curiously, the current Bitcoin rally happened a day after the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released a report investigating the energy usage associated with digital assets. The study recommended enforcing energy reliability, efficiency standards and it also suggested Federal Agencies provide technical assistance and initiate a collaborative process with the industry.

Bitcoin/USD (orange, left) vs. S&P 500 futures (blue). Source: TradingView

Notice how the peaks and valleys on both charts tend to coincide, but the correlation changes as investors’ perceptions and risk assessments vary over time. For example, between May 2021 and July 2021, the correlation was inverted most of the period. Overall, the stock market posted steady gains while the crypto markets collapsed.

More importantly, the chart above shows a huge gap being opened between Bitcoin and the stock market as stocks rallied from mid-July to mid-August. A comparison using the same scale would be better, but that does not work due to the difference in volatility. Still, it is reasonable to conclude that historically these gaps tend to close.

The S&P 500 futures declined 18% in 2022 until Sept. 6, while Bitcoin dropped 60.5% during the same period. So it makes sense to assume that if investors’ appetite for risk assets returns, assets with higher volatility will outperform during a rally.

There are other factors that are in play though, so there is no way to predict the outcome, but the return of investors’ appetite for risk would justify Bitcoin to outperform the stock market and significantly reduce the performance difference.

Pro traders were not expecting Bitcoin to bounce

Bearish traders were liquidated on $120 million in futures contracts, the highest figure since June 13. Typically, one would not expect this outcome considering Bitcoin had lost 13% in the two weeks leading to Sept. 7, but one could assume that short sellers (bears) were caught by surprise as the exchanges’ liquidation engine scrambled to buy those orders.

However, there’s another anecdotal evidence hidden in the liquidation data provided by the derivatives exchanges.

Bitcoin futures 24-hour liquidation data. Source: CoinGlass

Notice how retail-driven exchanges (Binance and Bybit) represented a mere 17.4% of the total orders that were forcefully closed, while their combined market share on Bitcoin futures is 30.6% the data leaves no doubt that the whales at OKX and FTX were the ones being squeezed.

Another interesting piece of data that sets today’s 10% pump apart is Bitcoin dominance, which measures its market share versus all other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin dominance. Source: TradingView

Notice how the indicator spiked from 39% to the present 40.5%, something unseen since May 11 when Bitcoin flash crashed below $26,000. It took another 31 days for the bear market to break the $28,500 support on June 12. Also note that a sharp increase in BTC dominance can happen during rallies and steep price corrections so relying solely on these indicators provides little aid in interpreting market movements.

Fear has been erased from options markets

The 25% delta skew, which is the leading Bitcoin options “fear and greed” metric, improved just enough to enter a neutral level.

Bitcoin 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

If option investors feared a price crash, the skew indicator would move above 12%, whereas investor excitement tends to reflect a negative 12% skew. After peaking at 18% on Sept. 7, the metric currently stands at 12% which is the very edge of the neutral market. Therefore, the Bitcoin pump on Sept. 9 signaled that professional investors are no longer demanding excessive premiums for protective put options.

These three indicators back the relevance of Bitcoin’s recent 10% pump. A $120 million liquidation on leverage shorts (bears) was concentrated on less “retail-oriented” derivatives exchanges, the 1.5% hike in Bitcoin’s dominance rate and options traders pricing similar upside and downside risks all suggest that Bitcoin may have finally found a bottom.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

White House: America Will Be the Bitcoin Superpower of the World

Bitcoin is pinned below $20K as the macro climate stifles hope for a sustainable BTC bull run

BTC bulls have a chance to profit from this week’s $410 million options expiry, but the factors pulling down equities markets reduce the chance of Bitcoin changing its trend.

Bitcoin (BTC) crashed below $19,000 on Sept. 6, driving the price to its lowest level in 80 days. The movement not only completely erased the entirety of the 32% gains accrued from July until Aug. 15, it also wiped out $246 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts.

Bitcoin price is down for the year but it’s important to compare its price action against other assets. Oil prices are currently down 23.5% since July, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has dropped 36.4% in 30 days and Moderna (MRNA), a pharmaceutical and biotechnology company, is down 30.4% in the same period.

Inflationary pressure and fear of a global recession have driven investors away from riskier assets. By seeking shelter in cash positions, mainly in the dollar itself, this protective movement has caused the U.S. Treasuries' 5-year yield to reach 3.38%, nearing its highest level in 15 years. By demanding a loftier premium to hold government debt, investors are signaling a lack of confidence in the current inflation controls.

Data released on Sept. 7 shows that China's exports grew 7.1% in August from a year earlier, after increasing by 18% in July. Furthermore, Germany's industrial orders data on Sept. 6 showed a 13.6% contraction in July versus the previous year. Thus, until there's some decoupling from traditional markets, there's not much hope for a sustainable Bitcoin bull run.

Bears were overly optimistic

The open interest for the Sept. 9 options expiry is $410 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears became too overconfident. These traders were not expecting $18,700 to hold because their bets targeted $18,500 and below.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Sept. 9. Source: CoinGlass

The 0.77 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $180 million call (buy) open interest and the $230 million put (sell) options. Currently, Bitcoin stands near $18,900, meaning most bets from both sides will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin's price remains below $20,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Sept. 9, only $13 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to buy Bitcoin at $20,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.

Bears aim for $18,000 to secure a $90 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Sept. 9 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $17,000 and $18,000: 0 calls vs. 4,300 puts. Bears completely dominate, profiting $130 million.
  • Between $18,000 and $19,000: 0 calls vs. 5,050 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $90 million.
  • Between $19,000 and $20,000: 700 calls vs. 1,900 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $50 million.
  • Between $20,000 and $21,000: 2,050 calls vs. 2,200 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Related: Bitcoin price hits 10-week low amid 'painful' U.S. dollar rally warning

Bulls have until Sept. 9 to ease their pain

Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $20,000 on Sept. 9 to avoid a potential $130 million loss. On the other hand, the bears' best-case scenario requires a slight push below $18,000 to maximize their gains.

Bitcoin bulls just had $246 million leverage long positions liquidated in two days, so they might have less margin required to drive the price higher. In other words, bears have a head start to peg BTC below $19,000 ahead of the weekly options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

White House: America Will Be the Bitcoin Superpower of the World

Bitcoin price falls under $19K as data shows pro traders avoiding leverage longs

BTC nose-dived to its lowest level since July 13, but data shows pro traders remain skeptical of a quick recovery.

An $860 surprise price correction on Sept. 6 took Bitcoin (BTC) from $19,820 to $18,960 in less than two hours. The movement caused $74 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations at derivatives exchanges, the largest in almost three weeks. The current $18,733 level is the lowest since July 13 and marks a 24% correction from the rally to $25,000 on Aug. 15.

Bitcoin/USD 30-min price. Source: TradingView

It is worth highlighting that a 2% pump toward $20,200 happened in the early hours of Sept. 6, but the move was quickly subdued and Bitcoin resumed trading near $19,800 within the hour. Ether’s (ETH) price action was more interesting, gaining 7% in the 48 hours preceding the market correction.

Any conspiracy theories regarding investors changing their position to favor the altcoin can be dismissed as Ether dropped 5.6% on Sept. 6, while Bitcoin's $860 loss represents a 3.8% change.

The market has been in a bit of a rut since Aug. 27 comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was followed by a $1.25 trillion loss in U.S. stocks in a single day. At the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Powell said that larger interest rate hikes were still firmly on the table, causing the S&P 500 to close down 3.4% that day.

Let’s take a look at crypto derivatives data to understand whether investors have been pricing higher odds of a downturn.

Pro traders have been bearish since last week

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Still, they are professional traders' preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

In healthy markets, the indicator should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium to cover costs and associated risks. So one can safely say that derivatives traders had been neutral to bearish for the past month because the Bitcoin futures premium remained below 3% the entire time. This data reflects professional traders' unwillingness to add leveraged long (bull) positions.

One must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument. For example, the 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 12%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below negative 12%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

The 30-day delta skew had been above the 12% threshold since Sept 1, signaling options traders were less inclined to offer downside protection. These two derivatives metrics suggest that the Bitcoin price dump on Sept. 6 might have been partially expected, which explains the low impact on liquidations.

In comparison, the $2,500 Bitcoin drop on Aug. 18 caused $210 million worth of leveraged long (buyers) liquidations. Still, the prevailing bearish sentiment does not necessarily translate to adverse price action. Therefore, one should tread carefully when whales and market markers are less inclined to add leverage longs and offer downside protection using options.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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