Huobi Launches Blockchain and Web3 Investment Arm Ivy Blocks

June 12, 2022 Bitcoin.com

Solana price just one breakdown away from a 40% slide in June — here’s why

June 10, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Network outages and decreasing smart contract reserves add further downside pressure to SOL price.

Solana (SOL) is nearing a decisive breakdown moment as it inches towards the apex of its prevailing "descending triangle" pattern.

SOL's 40% price decline setup

Notably, SOL's price has been consolidating inside a range defined by a falling trendline resistance and horizontal trendline support, which appears like a descending triangle—a trend continuation pattern.

Therefore, since SOL has been trending lower, down about 85% from its November 2021 peak of $267, its likelihood of breaking below the triangle range is higher.

As a rule of technical analysis, a breakdown move followed by the formation of a descending triangle could last until the price has fallen by as much as the triangle's maximum height. This puts SOL's bearish price target at $22.50 in June, down about 40% from today's price.

*SOL/USD daily price chart featuring "descending triangle" breakdown setup. Source: TradingView*

But not all descending triangles lead to breakdowns, suggests a study conducted by Samurai Trading Academy. Notably, the likelihood of a descending triangle setup reaching its profit target is 7 out of 10, based on the pattern's history.

So that leaves SOL with a roughly 30% chance of avoiding a breakdown and rebounding.

Solana's rebound scenario

Descending triangles that form during downtrends but still lead to price reversals typically mark the bottom of the asset's bearish cycle.

Suppose SOL holds strong above the triangle's horizontal trendline support. Then, the SOL/USD pair could break above the structure's falling trendline resistance, and rise by as much as its maximum height, which puts its upside target around $65, up about 72% from today's price.

*SOL/USD daily price chart featuring descending triangle reversal setup. Source: TradingView*

The descending triangle's bullish profit target also coincides with SOL's 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $59.

Meanwhile, SOL's daily relative strength index (RSI), which has been reversing from its oversold threshold of 30 since May 12, also boosts the token's upside prospects.

$SOL

Could go up, could go down vibes

great analysis bruh pic.twitter.com/q6VCBsTXJL
— Posty (@PostyXBT) June 10, 2022

Solana TVL drops 75% from peak

Meanwhile, Solana's fundamentals are mixed.

As a blockchain network, it had performed poorly in recent months due to back-to-back outages. While the total value locked (TVL) inside Solana's smart contracts has crashed to $3.69 billion, down 75% from its December 2021's record high of $14.83 billion, data from Defi Llama shows.

*Solana TVL performance history. Source: Defi Llama*

On the bright side, Solana experienced sustained growth in network usage, developer activity, network infrastructure, and overall ecosystem in the first quarter of 2022, according to a study penned by James Trautman, a researcher at U.S.-based crypto analytics firm Messari.

Excerpts:

"Several factors contributed to the Q1 results, including the continued growth of new NFTs and NFT markets, diversification of TVL, improvements in UX, and new applications across several sectors outside of DeFi.

On June 8, Solana's venture capital arm launched a $100 million investment and grant fund to support its blockchain-based products in South Korea, a country whose crypto sector stands damaged by the recent collapse of Terra, a $40 billion "algorithmic stablecoin" project.

The decision expects to attract developers that want to migrate their projects from Terra to Solana, which could lead to a higher demand for SOL.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum ‘double doji’ pattern hints at a 50% ETH price rally by September

June 8, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

ETH's bullish reversal candlesticks form near a strong support confluence, raising anticipations about a sharp upside retracement ahead.

Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), looks poised to undergo a sharp upside retracement in the coming weeks after painting a so-called "double doji" pattern, accompanied by a few bullish technical indicators.

Ether strong support confluence meets dojis

To recap, a doji is a candlestick that forms when a financial instrument opens and closes around the same level on a specified timeframe, be it hourly, daily, or weekly. From a technical perspective, doji represents indecision in the market, meaning a balance of strength between bears and bulls.

So, if a market is trending downwards when doji appears, traditional analysts view it as a sign of slowing selling momentum. As a result, traders may look at doji as a sign to existing their short positions or open new long positions in anticipation of a price reversal.

Meanwhile, a double doji shows a continued state of bias conflict among traders, which could result in the price breaking out in either direction.

With ETH/USD forming a similar pattern on its weekly chart, the token looks ready to log strong trend-defining moves in the coming sessions.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring two Doji formations in a row. Source: TradingView*

Some of Ether's technicals favor a decisive rebound move, beginning with its 200-week exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave in the chart above) near $1,625, which has served as a strong support level in May 2022.

Next, Ether gets another concrete price floor in the $1,500-$1,700 range, which was instrumental in capping the token's bearish attempts between February and July 2021. Coupled with double doji, these technical indicators anticipate a price rebound ahead.

A 50% ETH rally ahead?

If ETH price rebounds as described above, then the next bullish target is the 0.5 Fib line (near 2,120) of the Fibonacci retracement graph, drawn from the $85-swing low to the $4,300-swing high.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring Fib support and resistance targets. Source: TradingView*

That would mark a 20% upside move. Meanwhile, an extended move above the 0.5 Fib line could have traders eye the 0.382 Fib line near $2,700 as their next upside target, a level coinciding with ETH's 50-week EMA (the red wave), by the end of September 2022.

This would be a nearly 50% price rally.

Conversely, if the double doji pattern resolves in a breakdown below the support range, it could push Ether toward $1,400. This level coincides with ETH's 2018 top and was instrumental as a support in February 2021, as shown below.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

A decisive breakdown below $1,400 then opens the door to the 0.786 Fib line near $1,000 as the next downside target.

3 reasons Ethereum price risks 25% downside in June

June 5, 2022 Coin Telegraph

ADA price

A mix of on-chain, fundamental and technical factors suggests more pain for Ether bulls ahead.

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) has dropped more than half of its value in 2022 in dollar terms, while also losing value against Bitcoin (BTC) and now remains pinned below $2,000 for several reasons.

What’s more, ETH price could face even bigger losses in June due to another slew of factors, which will be discussed below.

Ethereum funds lose capital en masse

Investors have withdrawn $250 million out of Ethereum-based investment funds in 2022, according to CoinShares’ weekly market report published May 31.

The massive outflow appears in contrast to other coins. For instance, investors have poured $369 million into Bitcoin-based investment funds in 2022.

Meanwhile, Solana and Cardano, layer-one blockchain protocols competing with Ethereum, have attracted $104 million and $9 million, respectively.

*Flow into/from crypto funds (by assets). Source: CoinShares/Bloomberg*

The withdrawals from Ethereum funds are a sign of how the recent crash in TerraUSD (UST) and Terra (LUNA) — tokens within Terra's algorithmic stablecoin ecosystem — has dampened interest in the overall decentralized finance (DeFi) sector.

ETH’s bullish prospects remain glued to anticipations of a boom in the DeFi market, because Ethereum’s blockchain host a majority of financial applications in the sector. As of June 5, the total valued locked (TVL) inside the Ethereum-based apps was $68.71 million, almost 65% of the total DeFi TVL.

*Ethereum TVL as of June 5. Source: DeFi Llama*

But, the TVL still reflects a massive retreat from Ethereum’s DeFi pools, which, before the collapse of Luna Classic (LUNC) and TerraUSD Classic (USTC) on May 9, was hovering around $100 billion.

With macro risks led by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies, coupled with a cautious outlook around the DeFi sector, Ether looks poised to continue its decline in June, according to Ilan Solot, a partner at Tagus Capital.

He told the Financial Times:

“If the Federal Reserve is tightening, the world is in recession, and people need to pay $4.5 per gallon of gas, they’ll have less to invest in DeFi or spend on blockchain games.”

Sluggish technicals

Trading behavior witnessed since May also paints a bearish outlook for Ethereum.

In detail, Ether has been fluctuating inside a range defined by a horizontal trendline support and a falling trendline resistance. The pattern looks more or less like a “descending triangle,” a bearish continuation pattern when formed during a downtrend.

As a rule of technical analysis, descending triangles resolve after the price breaks decisively below their support trendline and then falls by as much as the triangle’s maximum height. Ether risks undergoing a similar downside move in June, as shown in the chart below.

*ETH/USD daily price chart featuring 'descending triangle' setup. Source: TradingView*

If ETH’s price breaks below the triangle’s lower trendline, it risks falling toward $1,350 in June, down about 25% from today's price.

ETH reserves on exchanges are increasing

The total number of Ether balances at crypto exchanges globally has increased by 550,459 ETH since May, data from CryptoQuant shows.

That amounts to almost $950 million worth of inflows into the exchanges’ hot wallets since the beginning of the Terra debacle.

*Ethereum exchange reserves. Source: CryptoQuant*

Typically, traders send tokens to exchanges when they want to trade them for other assets. Thus, selling pressure would likely increase if the downtrend in ETH reserves on exchanges begins to reverse.

Cardano price fake-out? ADA’s 45% rebound in two days could trap bulls

June 1, 2022 Coin Telegraph

ada

ADA price has seen sharp recoveries during bear markets in the past with many turning out to be bull traps.

Cardano (ADA) price climbed from $0.48 on May 30 to as high as $0.68 on May 31—a 45% rally in less than 48 hours. But ADA/USD failed to extend its rally further upward and dropped by almost 13.75% from its weekly high.

ADA price: Bear market vibes

Cardano's price retreated sharply on June 1, giving up a portion of the gains secured in the previous two days. The question now arises whether the ADA/USD pair can extend its recovery trend, especially as it trades almost 80% below its September 2021 peak of $3.16.

Interestingly, the downside retracement began after ADA tested its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave in the chart below) as resistance. Also, the pair moved lower in tandem with a broader correction sentiment across riskier assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPX).

*ADA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Now, the Cardano token risks a further price correction, according to the Digital Trend, a financial analysis contributor at SeekingAlpha, noting that ADA has seen sharp price rebounds in the past that turned into bull traps, adding:

"In March, we saw ADA go from south of $0.80 to over $1.24 in a couple of weeks. This, to me, looks like another fake-out."

Several fundamental factors also support a bearish outlook. On June 1, the Federal Reserve will begin unwinding its $9 trillion asset portfolio, likely creating more headwinds for risk-on assets, Cardano included.

1/16

Today it begins.

Quantitative Tightening.

So what does it mean? Is it a straight down market? Do we know its all good if nothing bad happens the first day?

How do you navigate this?
— Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) June 1, 2022

"I don't think we know the impacts of QT [quantitative tightening] just yet, especially since we haven't done this slimming down of the balance sheet much in history," Dan Eye, the chief investment officer of Fort Pitt Capital Group, told Market Watch, adding that removing liquidity from the market would "affect multiples in valuations to some degree."

Cardano price paints bull pennant

From a technical perspective, Cardano could continue its recovery trend in June due to a bullish continuation pattern.

ADA has been consolidating inside what appears to be a "bull pennant," confirmed by the price fluctuating inside a triangle structure following a massive move upside, called "flagpole."

As a rule, a bull pennant resolves after the price breaks above its upper trendline and rises by as much as the flagpole's height.

*ADA/USD hourly price chart featuring 'bull pennant' setup. Source: TradingView*

In other words, a $0.77 bullish target in June, up more than 25% from June 1's price.

ADA/BTC sees a similar upside setup

ADA has been painting a similar bull pennant setup against Bitcoin, raising the chances of an uptrend for the ADA/BTC pair in June.

*ADA/BTC hourly price chart featuring 'bull pennant' setup. Source: TradingView.com*

As a result, ADA/BTC's decisive breakout above the pennant's upper trendline could have it rise toward 0.00002355, up 23% from June 1's price.

Wealthy Coinbase clients are still ‘hodling’ Bitcoin since December 2020, data suggests

May 31, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Institutions that reportedly purchased 10,939 BTC from Coinbase in December 2020 are not selling yet.

Bitcoin's (BTC) price dropped by more than 50% after peaking out at $69,000 six months ago but the plunge did little in forcing some of its wealthiest investors into selling.

Notably, the number of Bitcoin under Coinbase Custody for institutional clients rose by 296% since Q4 2020, showcasing the most investors decided to "hodl" onto their investments despite BTC price down well over 50% from its all-time highs.

JUST-IN: #Bitcoin under @Coinbase Custody for institutional clients increased by 296% since Q4'20. pic.twitter.com/iILge2Cane
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 30, 2022

For instance, institutions that deposited 10,939 BTC (~$335 million at today's price) with Coinbase Custody in December 2020, when BTC/USD was around $23,000, have not moved since, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted:

"For most cases, the same amount of BTC is still in the (custodian) wallets, which flowed out from Coinbase for highly likely institutional purchases in December 2020."

*Coinbase custodial wallets comparison. Source: CryptoQuant/Ki Young Ju*

If this is the case, then these institutions are currently sitting on 30% profits from their BTC investments. Meanwhile, their decision to not unwind their Bitcoin positions, even when BTC/USD has plummeted by more than half, underscores their strong "hodling" sentiment.

That also points to institutions' ability to withstand additional declines in the Bitcoin price, at least until it drops below the investors' breakeven level of $23,000.

Bitcoin bear market not over?

Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating inside the $29,500-$30,500 range since May 12, underscoring the market's indecision in a higher interest rate environment.

But several technical analysts anticipate that BTC's price would continue its prevailing downtrend.

For instance, PostyXBT, an independent market analyst, argues that the token could fall toward its 200-week moving average (the $20,000-22,000 range) next, as shown in the setup below.

*BTC/USDT weekly price chart. Source: PostyXBT/TradingView*

Meanwhile, Popular analyst Rekt Capital adds that a drop toward the 200-week MA could also have Bitcoin form a bearish wick, which might take its price to as low as $15,500-$19,000.

STEPN rebounds sharply after falling 80% in a month — is GMT price bottoming out?

May 28, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

GMT's downside pressure remains as an analyst calls STEPN a "hype-driven speculative frenzy."

A massive downtrend in the STEPN (GMT) prices witnessed in the last 30 days appears to be nearing exhaustion.

GMT's price has rebounded by nearly 35%—from $0.80 on May 27 to $0.99 on May 28. Interestingly, the upside retracement started after the price fell in the same range, which had acted as support before GMT's 500% and 120% price rallies in March and early May, respectively.

*GMT/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Additionally, the rebound further preceded an 80% drop from its record high of $4.50, established on April 27, which left GMT oversold, per its daily relative strength index reading that slipped below the oversold threshold of 30 on May 26.

The technical support, in addition to oversold RSI, suggests GMT is in the process of bottoming out.

GMT price levels to watch

Drawing a Fibonacci retracement graph from GMT's $0.0099-swing low to $3.82-swing high leaves the token inside a broader consolidation range, defined by the 0.382 Fib line (near $1.50) acting as interim resistance and the 0.786 Fib line (near $0.82) serving as interim support.

*GMT/USD daily price chart featuring Fib support/resistance levels. Source: TradingView*

Therefore, an extended rebound move from the $0.82-support level brings $1.50 into the attention as the next upside target, up about 40% from today's price. Moreover, a strong upside follow-up could send the STEPN token towards the $2-2.50 area, suggesting that the market has bottomed out.

Conversely, a weaker upside follow-up could have GMT's price retest $0.82 for a breakdown move toward $0.54. This level was instrumental in capping the token's downside attempts between March 17 and March 21 earlier this year.

STEPN a "hype-driven speculative frenzy?"

From the fundamental perspective, GMT's bias looks skewed to the downside.

First, the token continues to trade in near-perfect tandem with Bitcoin (BTC) and the other top-cap cryptocurrencies, according to their daily correlation coefficient readings, which topped 0.98 on May 21, but had subsided to 0.75 on May 28.

*GMT/USD and BTC/USD daily correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView*

So, if Bitcoin continues to struggle below $30,000, as many analysts believe, it could take GMT lower alongside due to its consistent positive correlation with the token.

Second, GMT could drop due to the rising uncertainties surrounding STEPN's business model, which involves paying users for exercising either by walking, jogging, or running with the native Green Satoshi Token (GST) units.

Time to hit half a million followers milestone! We are giving away $1.5 million worth of NFT once we reach 500k Twitter followers (50 pairs BNBChain Genesis Sneakers):
1⃣ Follow us
2⃣ Retweet
3⃣ Tag 3 friends & comment below pic.twitter.com/ngzXPxuXLw
— STEPN | Public Beta Phase IV (@Stepnofficial) May 9, 2022

Mike Fay, an independent market analyst and the author of the Heretic Speculator financial newsletter, says that STEPN's so-called move-to-earn model is neither scalable nor sustainable in the long term.

The analyst cited some core issues with the "lifestyle app."

First, STEPN has a massive entry barrier for it makes people acquire its expensive "Sneaker NFTs." But even then, people buy these digital issues for hundreds or thousands of dollars in anticipation that they would recover their investments by earning and selling GST tokens.

Many users have already recouped their money, such as YouTuber Sebbyverse, who claims that he earned $219 worth of GST tokens just by walking 15 minutes to-and-fro for dinner.

"The way this likely ends is with the last people who come into the platform essentially serving as 'exit liquidity' for the early adopters when the app's in-game payment token (GST-USD) collapses," Fay said while highlighting that the STEPN's in-house token is already crashing.

*GST/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

That would hurt users' return on investment who paid thousands of dollars for Sneaker NFTs. So, if the demand for NFTs dries up and incentive drops, STEPN would have trouble attracting new players to its app, thus dampening demand for GMT, according to Fay. He added:

"STEPN is in a hype-driven speculative frenzy and I'm not touching any of this. Not the payout token (GST-USD), the governance token GMT, or the NFTs."

Bitcoin price bottom signals flash as ‘fear and greed’ index matches March 2020 lows

May 25, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Analysis

On-chain indicators focusing on Bitcoin's fair valuation and long-term holders' sentiment also raise its prospects of bottoming out.

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen by over 67% in 2022 and is now wobbling between a tight trading range defined by $28,000 as interim support and $30,500 as interim resistance.

The selloff appears in the wake of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy and the uncertainties in the crypto market led by Terra, an algorithmic stablecoin project whose native token LUNA fell by 99% earlier in the month.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin's decline has somewhat cooled down as May draws to a close, leaving speculators with the hope that the token is in the process of bottoming out.

Something like this might play out for #Bitcoin. Notice the lower left corner we had a double bottom before getting a green wave. We’re currently sitting at the bottom of the wedge. We can go a little lower and form another double bottom before reversing. pic.twitter.com/feuzp5tiDZ
— BitcoinAlArab (@BitcoinAlArabx) May 23, 2022

Interestingly, Bitcoin's Fear and Greed Index (F&G) also hints at the same scenario, notes Arcane Research in its latest weekly report.

Bitcoin F&G readings hit March 2020 lows

In detail, Bitcoin's F&G reached the score 8 on May 17, indicating "extreme fear," a first since March 2020.

"We see that buying fear has previously been a profitable strategy when measuring median and average returns of previous extreme fear periods," Arcane wrote while citing the four instances wherein Bitcoin's F&G had dropped to 8.

*Bitcoin price median returns after reaching 'extreme fear' levels. Source: Arcane Research*

Meanwhile, Ben Lilly, market researcher at Jarvis Labs, added that Bitcoin's F&G index falling below ten signals the extreme possibility of the market bottoming out. He also noted that buying Bitcoin when its F&G score is below 10 is a good short-term strategy, saying:

"Turns out the strategy where you hold it for less time produced greater results. Meaning the strategy where you sold after F&G rose above 35 (yellow line in the chart [below]) produced better results than a reading of 50 (orange) and 80 (red)."

*F&G returns for Bitcoin. Source: Ben Lilly's Twitter Handle*

On the flip side, Arcane highlighted that not all lower F&G scores have guaranteed bullish retracement moves in the past; some preceded continued selloffs. For instance, Bitcoin dropped nearly 11% on April 7, 2018, just sixty days after its F&G reached extreme fear levels.

More indicators signal bottom

More signs of a possible in the Bitcoin market come from several on-chain indicators.

For instance, Glassnode's MVRZ Z-Score, which assesses when Bitcoin is undervalued/overvalued based on its "fair value," is nearing the green zone that had preceded the crypto's massive rebound rallies, as shown in the chart below.

*Bitcoin MVRV Z Score. Source: Glassnode*

Simultaneously, the Long Term Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) indicator, which "evaluates the profit ratio of the whole market participants by comparing the value of outputs at the spent time to created time," also suggests that Bitcoin is bottoming out.

Specifically, when the LTH-SOPR value falls below 1, it highlights that some long-term Bitcoin holders could sell BTC at a loss. Conversely, a value above 1 shows that they could sell in profit.

As of May 25, the LTH-SOPR is 0.72, which could mean a potential forming bottom in the Bitcoin market because people will be reluctant to sell BTC at a loss.

*Bitcoin LOTH:SOPR (SMA 7). Source: CryptoQuant*

Selloff warnings remain for BTC

Nevertheless, the uplifting bottom indicators appear in contrast to a few other bearish signs elsewhere in the market and calls for as low as $15,500 and even below $10,000.

For instance, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim, argues that Bitcoin is on its way to $8,000, a 70% drop from today's price. Minerd cites a hawkish Federal Reserve for the bearish outlook on Bitcoin, whose daily correlation with Nasdaq has been positive since February 2022.

*BTC/USD and Nasdaq 100 correlation. Source: TradingView*

From the technical perspective, Bitcoin could indeed fall further toward the $22,000-$26,000 range before bottoming out.

These levels coincide with two historical support levels—the 200-day exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) and the 200-day simple moving average (200-week SMA; the orange wave)—that marked the end of BTC's previous bearish cycles.

*BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

"Towards the downside, the $25,000 bottom from May 12th is the closest support level below $29,000," further noted Arcane's researchers Vetle Lunde and Jalan Mellerud, adding that Bitcoin's "next critical support level" could be around $20,000, the 2017 peak. Excerpts:

"Towards the upside, $30,500 has been a strong resistance area over the last week. If BTC breaks out of resistance, $35,000 is the next key resistance area."

Monero enters ‘overbought’ danger zone after XMR price gains 75% in two weeks

May 23, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

XMR is also nearing a breakdown move led by the formation of rising wedge, a classic bearish reversal pattern.

Monero (XMR) price may witness a sharp pullback by June because its 75% rally in the last two weeks has left the gauge almost "overbought."

Monero price RSI meets rising wedge

Downside risks have been mounting due to XMR's relative strength index (RSI), which almost hit 70 this May 23, indicating that the market is considered overvalued. An oversold RSI could amount to a bout of declining moves, as a rule of technical analysis.

Additionally, Monero is also painting a bearish reversal pattern, dubbed the rising wedge. Rising wedges form when the price moves inside a range defined by two ascending, converging trendlines.

As they do, the volumes typically decline, underscoring a lack of conviction among traders about the upside price move.

Rising Wedges typically resolve after the price breaks below their lower trendline, followed by an extended move downside to the level that traders locate after adding the maximum wedge's height to the breakdown point.

*XMR/USD four-hour price chart featuring RSI and rising wedge setup. Source: TradingView*

As a result of this technical rule, XMR risks falling toward $138.50 by June—down nearly 30% from today's price—if the breakdown point comes to be around $180. While a breakdown move that appears near the apex point around $200 would shift the wedge's downside target to nearly $150.

A slightly bullish XMR setup

Simultaneously to the rising wedge, XMR has also been forming an ascending channel pattern, confirmed by at least two reactive highs and lows across the past two weeks, as shown below.

*XMR/USD four-hour price chart featuring ascending channel. Source: TradingView*

XMR now trades in the middle of its ascending channel range, eyeing a close above $200, a historically significant support level, albeit acting as resistance. Meanwhile, the token holds its 200-4H exponential moving average (200-4H EMA; the blue wave) near $191 as its interim support.

If the price breaks above $200, it would invalidate the bearish reversal setup posed by the falling wedge pattern discussed above. XMR's decisive jump would shift its interim upside target near $220, up about 15% from today's price.

Conversely, failing to close above $200 would increase XMR's risks of declining toward the $180-175 range, marked as the "pullback target" in the chart above. The area coincides with the ascending channel's lower trendline.

Avalanche nears key breakdown level that could sink AVAX price by another 65%

May 23, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Avalanche

Strongly bearish fundamentals act as tailwind to Avalanche's technically bearish setup.

Avalanche (AVAX) gained 0.5% to reach over $31 on May 23 but AVAX price remains trapped inside a trading range that appears like a "bear pennant" structure.

Avalanche could get buried technicals

Bear pennants are bearish continuation patterns, i.e., they resolve after the price breaks out of them to the downside and then—as a rule of technical analysis—falls by as much as the height of the previous downtrend, also called "flagpole."

AVAX is nearing a technical breakdown as its price moves toward the pennant's apex, i.e., the point where its upper and lower trendlines converge.

This paints the bearish target for the AVAX/USD pair at $11.50 by June 2022, down about 65% from today's price, as shown below.

*AVAX/USD daily price chart featuring 'bear pennant' breakdown setup. Source: TradingView*

AVAX price: key support levels

Conversely, AVAX's breakdown setup toward $11.50 could fell short due to certain key support areas.

For instance, the Avalanche token's volume profile shows it trading near its point of control (POC)—the level where the traders were most active since 2021—around $32.

Interestingly, the level was instrumental in capping AVAX's downside attempts in the August-September 2021 session; it preceded a 390% bull run, which saw AVAX reaching its record high of around $150 in late November 2021.

*AVAX/USD daily price chart featuring volume profile. Source: TradingView*

The POC level also served as a median during the consolidation trend witnessed between January 2021 and May 2021. Now, It holds as a price floor even as AVAX eyes the bear pennant breakdown, as discussed above.

Meanwhile, creating a Fibonacci retracement graph from AVAX's $2.75-swing low to $97.50-swing high shows AVAX consolidating between its 0.618 Fib line (near $40) and 0.786 Fib line (around 23), as shown below.

*AVAX/USD weekly price chart featuring Fib support and resistance levels. Source: TradingView*

That raises Avalanche's possibility of retesting $23 as support, followed by a rebound move toward $40. Such a move would risk invalidating the bear pennant setup.

Fundamentally bearish

Today, Avalanche trades nearly 78% below its record high of around $150, burdened by a strong bearish sentiment elsewhere in the crypto market in a higher interest rate environment.

In addition, the recent Terra ecosystem meltdown has also stressed the prices of AVAX and other cryptos lower.

JUST IN: #AVAX CEO says the company lost $60 million from the $LUNA and $UST collapse.
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 22, 2022

But the worst is still yet to come if AVAX continues trending in sync with the top crypto Bitcoin (BTC) and, in turn, its global risk-on counterparts, such as Nasdaq. The correlation coefficient between Avalanche and Nasdaq was 0.91 as of May 23, showing that they have been moving in near-perfect tandem.

On the brighter note, AVAX shows promise of an interim upside scenario with a divergence between its rising relative strength index (RSI) and falling prices, according to Scott Melker, an independent market analyst.

*AVAX/USD daily price chart showing bullish divergence. Source: Scott Melker/TradingView*

"There are potential bullish divergences with oversold RSI on a ton of daily altcoin charts," said Melker, adding:

"Need definitive elbow up on RSI, but I still think we have been bottoming here across markets.... for now."

Investment

SOL's 40% price decline setup

Solana's rebound scenario

Solana TVL drops 75% from peak

Ether strong support confluence meets dojis

A 50% ETH rally ahead?

Ethereum funds lose capital en masse

Sluggish technicals

ETH reserves on exchanges are increasing

ADA price: Bear market vibes

Cardano price paints bull pennant

ADA/BTC sees a similar upside setup

Bitcoin bear market not over?

GMT price levels to watch

STEPN a "hype-driven speculative frenzy?"

Bitcoin F&G readings hit March 2020 lows

More indicators signal bottom

Selloff warnings remain for BTC

Monero price RSI meets rising wedge

A slightly bullish XMR setup

Avalanche could get buried technicals

AVAX price: key support levels

Fundamentally bearish

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