XRP price faces Q4 rout and 20% drop

November 23, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin etf

XRP has entered a strong correction cycle after testing a multi-year resistance trendline. Is the bull market on pause for now?

XRP (XRP) price has dropped 18.5% from its local high of $0.67 on Nov. 23. And, it appears the cryptocurrency will suffer more selloffs in the coming weeks.

XRP technicals hint at extended correction

XRP has failed to break above a descending trendline resistance since January 2018. And, it fell short of logging a breakout above in November 2023, as well, illustrating a psychological selling pressure around the line.

*XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Each bearish rejection after testing the descending trendline resistance has historically resulted in a decline toward the ascending support trendline.

The downside target appears around $0.50, interestingly closer to XRP's 50-week (the red wave) and 200-week (the blue wave) exponential moving averages (EMA). Thus, XRP's price risks declining by 20% before 2024, if this fractal plays out.

Potential XRP transfers to exchanges

XRP's bearish outlook picks more cues from the supply distribution data tracked its richest cohorts.

Notably, the XRP supply held by addresses with a balance between 1 billion and infinity tokens (the black wave) has risen 1.75% since Nov. 20.

A huge chunk of these addresses may belong to crypto exchanges, indicating that investors have been moving their XRP holdings to trading platforms for selling.

*XRP supply distribution. Source: Santiment*

Historical data shows that the spikes in the 1 billion-infinity XRP token cohort precede both modest and huge price declines (the red wave). Conversely, a recent decline in the cohort's supply, indicating exchange outflows, preceded XRP's price rally from $0.55 to up to $0.68.

In addition, XRP fund data show de-risking behavior among institutional investors. In November, XRP-related investment vehicles witnessed outflows worth $2.6 million, according to CoinShares.

*Net flows across cryptocurrency-focused investment funds. Source: CoinShares*

Interestingly, other cryptocurrencies experienced inflows in the same period, with Bitcoin leading the chart.

Is the XRP bull run over?

XRP price has soared in 2023, generating 80% returns for its investors as of Nov. 23. Its partial legal win against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Spot Bitcoin ETF euphoria have contributed the most to its yearly gains.

Related: Why is XRP price up today?

As a result, the ongoing XRP price decline appears like a bull market correction. In other words, some investors are selling XRP near its local price tops to secure profits. In other words, XRP's overall uptrend is still intact.

Trade analysts anticipate XRP to resume its bull trend, with Muro saying that it would rise to $0.80 next, up 30% from current price levels.

$XRP

Just like ETH and SOL, broke out, ready to go, with or without retest of the consolidation low pic.twitter.com/92pIeOZZP7
— Muro (@MuroCrypto) November 23, 2023

CryptoBull expects XRP to reach $4.20 in 2024, citing the cryptocurrency's past breakouts after months of consolidation inside triangle patterns.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

XRP price rally stalls as SEC vs. Ripple ruling drags on — 25% drop ahead?

April 11, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin Analysis

XRP nears key breakout but lackluster volumes may spoil its 30% rally setup.

XRP (XRP) rose 2.1% to $0.52 on April 11, extending its daily gains from $0.50 alongside a broader cryptocurrency market rally as traders pinned hopes on easing inflation data into April 12.

XRP price: lackluster volumes raise risk of 25% correction

XRP's upside move brought it closer to breaking out of its prevailing bull pennant range with a price target of $0.65.

*XRP/USD daily candle price chart. Source: Tradingview*

However, lackluster volumes accompanying XRP's gains hinted at a potential price correction in the future. That could mean a short-term pullback toward the pennant's lower trendline near $0.51 in April or a broader correction altogether invalidating the bullish continuation setup.

The extended selloff scenario is best visible on the weekly chart below, wherein a key resistance-turned-support line has limited XRP's upside prospects.

If the fractal plays out again, XRP price will risk falling toward its multi-month ascending trendline support near $0.40 by May, down about 25% from current price levels.

SEC vs. Ripple hype cools down

XRP price has soared by nearly 55% in 2023 primarily due to anticipations that Ripple will win the lawsuit filed against it by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). That includes its 43% rise in March amid speculations that the ruling will come out by the month's end.

But it didn't. Simultaneously, the Google search score for the keyword "SEC vs. Ripple" declined from its March peak of 100 — a perfect score — to 56 in the week ending April 8.

*Internet trends for the keyword 'SEC vs. Ripple' on a 12-month relative basis. Source: Google Trends*

In addition, "XRP" social volumes dropped from their March highs, according to data tracked by Santiment.

Lastly, XRP remains in lockstep with Bitcoin (BTC) on a daily timeframe. However, as Cointelegraph noted, BTC risks a correction to $25,000 in the near term due to rate hike risks, putting XRP and other altcoins in danger of losses as well.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Stellar’s XLM bounces 15% two days after hitting record low versus XRP

March 31, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

XLM price is playing catchup to XRP's March gains, quickly rising 25% versus the U.S. dollar while the XLM/XRP pair bounces from record lows.

The price of Stellar (XLM) rebounded 15% versus its arch-rival XRP (XRP) two days after the XLM/XRP pair set a record low of 0.181.

Notably, the XLM/XRP pair rose to its intraday high of 0.20 XRP on March 31, a move that coincided with a decoupling between Stellar and XRP in the U.S. dollar market. For instance, XLM's price has jumped over 11% since March 29 versus XRP's 3% decline.

*XLM/XRP weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

XLM price eyes 10% gains versus XRP in April

On a broader timeframe, XLM has dropped 89% versus its peak of 1.655 XRP in January 2021. Interestingly, the peak formed a month after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple for allegedly selling securities in the form of XRP tokens.

The SEC vs. Ripple case is now nearing its conclusion with legal experts favoring a win for Ripple.

Meanwhile, XLM continues its long-term downtrend against XRP, though a rebound in April is on the cards.

On the daily chart, the XLM/XRP's ongoing recovery started at its multi-month descending trendline resistance, which constitutes a falling channel, as shown below.

*XLM/XRP daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The pair now looks toward flipping the 0.198-0.207 XRP resistance range as support to eye a run-up toward 0.22 XRP in April, up 10% from current prices.

XLM looks equally bullish versus the U.S. dollar

Stellar price rallied more than 25% in March to reach $0.113, its highest level in four months. XLM is now positioned for a potential short-term price correction in the first week of April, followed by a rebound rally to new yearly highs.

At the core of this bullish outlook is a classic technical pattern dubbed cup-and-handle. The pattern forms when the price undergoes a U-shaped recovery, or cup, followed by a consolidation period, i.e. the handle, all under a common resistance level called "neckline."

Meanwhile, it resolves after the price breaks above the neckline and rises by as much as the distance between the cup's bottom and neckline.

Notably, XLM has been painting a similar cup-and-handle since November 2022. XLM/USD entered the pattern's breakout stage during its price boom in March and is now 20% away from reaching the breakout target near $0.131.

*XLM/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Nonetheless, XLM's daily relative strength index (RSI) has entered its overbought zone above 70, suggesting a consolidation or correction period in the first week of April. As it happens, XLM price risks correcting toward its neckline at around $0.095, down 12% from current price levels.

Related: Why is XRP price up today?

Ideally, traders perceive such corrections as a method to analyze cup-and-handle's breakout strength. So the breakout scenario will be confirmed when the price bounces from the neckline, accompanied by a rise in trading volumes.

Conversely, if the price closes below the neckline with a rise in volumes, it risks invalidating the cup-and-handle breakout scenario altogether.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

XRP price tags 10-month high — Can a 35% pullback be avoided?

March 29, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Binance

A U.S. regulator called Bitcoin, Ether, and Litecoin commodities in its court filing against Binance. It did not mention XRP anywhere.

XRP (XRP) outperformed its top-ranking crypto rivals over the past 24 hours while reaching the highest price in 10 months.

XRP price tags 10-month high

On March 29, XRP's price surged by nearly 15% to $0.58, its highest level in ten months, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) in the past 24 hours that rose around 4.5% and 2.75%, respectively.

*XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) referred to Bitcoin, Ether, and Litecoin (LTC) as "commodities" in its court filing against Binance. While the U.S. regulatory didn't name XRP, many assumed the token would be categorized as a commodity.

The lawsuit will likely conclude by the end of March, with legal experts believing Ripple has a chance to win. XRP price has rallied 45% month-to-date on similar hopes, including the March 29 price rally, supplemented further by investors' optimistic interpretation of the CFTC court filing.

#XRP bucks the market trend with 8% surge to a 5 month high of under $0.50#CFTC's #Binance filing could classify $XRP as a commodity instead of a security as alleged by #SEC in #Ripple vs SEC case@Ripple's CTO argument gains traction and XRP price impacted by case progression pic.twitter.com/eFB28Ehmj0
— LaCryptoLycus (@CryptoLycus) March 28, 2023

35% XRP price correction ahead?

XRP's price rally brought it closer to the breakout target of $0.60. However, the possibility of a big correction after the SEC vs. Ripple ruling as a "sell the news" event remains.

Related: Why is XRP price up today?

Technical indicators also show the XRP/USD pair facing the upper trendline of its prevailing rising channel. Thus, a correction toward the lower trendline is now in play, with the downside price target around $0.38 in April, down 35% from current price levels.

On a broader timeframe, the rising channel appears like a bear flag, a bearish continuation technical indicator.

The completion of the flag pattern could see XRP price falling to $0.189 by June, down over 65% from current price levels

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

XRP price: ‘sell the news’ moment nears after crypto-leading 20% weekly gain

March 27, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

XRP whales have been accumulating since February with only days remaining until the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit could reach its potential conclusion.

XRP (XRP) price is currently outperforming all other major cryptocurrencies as of March 27, rising over 20% in the past seven days.

XRP accumulation ahead of SEC vs. Ripple ruling

XRP has seen steady gains over the past seven days as the ongoing legal quandary between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to conclude by the end of March.

Meanwhile, the supply of XRP held by addresses with a balance between 10 million and 100 million tokens has risen by over 1% since February. That coincides with a 0.75% drop in the XRP supply held by the 1 million-10 million address cohort.

*XRP balance in addresses holding between 1,000 and 100 million tokens. Source: Santiment*

The addresses holding between 1,000 and 1 million XRP also increased their token holdings in the same period. That shows the XRP whales stacked up more tokens in the days leading up to the ruling on SEC vs. Ripple's so-called summary judgment.

Multiple observers, including legal expert John Deaton, see Ripple winning the case, arguing that the SEC may have failed to give the company a "fair notice" before suing it for committing securities fraud.

I have no doubt Ripple will win and the current Supreme Court will shut down the @SECGov’s gross overreach. The West Virginia EPA case is all you need to read to agree with me. @Ripple’s summary judgment brief is already an extremely well written appellate brief. https://t.co/o3g9zML9S2
— John E Deaton (@JohnEDeaton1) February 20, 2023

In recent months, Analisa Torres, the federal judge overseeing the lawsuit, has also favored Ripple on various motions. For instance, she has approved Ripple's demand that the SEC makes its internal emails and documents regarding cryptocurrencies public, which may prove that the regulator unfairly targeted the company.

25% XRP price pullback in April?

From a technical perspective, the XRP/USD rally has brought the pair near a resistance confluence zone, which may lead to bearish reversal in the coming weeks.

The confluence comprises of a multi-year descending trendline (black), a 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) and a support-turned-resistance horizontal level at around $0.50 (purple).

*XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

In addition, XRP's three-day relative strength index (RSI) eyes a close above its overbought threshold of 70, adding to the bearish case for April.

In the case of a pullback, the XRP price's next downside target appears at its multi-month ascending trendline support (black) around $0.35, down about 25% from current price levels.

On the other hand, a breakout above the descending trendline will have XRP price eyeing $0.60 as the next upside target.

This level has served as support in December 2021 and January 2022 — and as resistance in the September-October 2022 session. It is also the target of a prevailing bull pennant structure.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Why is XRP price up today?

March 9, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Can Ripple pull off a win against the SEC? XRP price has been seeing moderate gains despite a general cryptocurrency market pullback.

XRP price extended its gains on March 9, rising around 1.5% to $0.40, despite a general downturn in the cryptocurrency market.

XRP price four-day winning streak

The rally in the XRP/USD pair started on March 5 with the XRP market capitalization gaining over 10% in the past four days.

In contrast, the entire crypto market's cap has dropped by about 5% in the same period, with top coins Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) losing by 4.5% and 4%, respectively.

Ripple scores early win versus SEC

XRP's gains appear as investors pin their hopes on Ripple winning its long-running courtroom battle against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

On March 6, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres issued a ruling on motions filed by Ripple and the SEC to exclude the comments of expert witnesses from the upcoming summary judgment. She approved and denied the motions in part, underscoring no clear winner and loser in the matter.

However, removing the so-called "Expert No. 1," Patrick Doody, who the SEC roped as its primary witness to testify about the perceptions of a reasonable XRP purchaser, led XRP market participants to believe that Ripple may end up winning the lawsuit.

@SECGov VS. @Ripple . Judge Torres excludes witness #1 witness Patrick Doody (expert hired to analyze our expectations as #XRPHolders ) . How will the SEC prove that we expected a profit if Doody is excluded? Don't sleep on this ruling, this is a big deal. #XRP
— RippleEffect (@CommonsenseXRP) March 7, 2023

In other words, the SEC's argument that Ripple sold XRP as an unregistered security to gullible investors may fall flat.

As Cointelegraph reported in January, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said that he expects the lawsuit to conclude "in the coming single digit months."

35% XRP price rally ahead?

From a technical perspective, XRP price may risks declining in the coming weeks as it retests a multi-month descending trendline as resistance.

The trendline has served as a capitulation point for traders since April 2021, which raises its possibility of sending the XRP price lower in the current scenario. A successful pullback would risks pushing XRP toward $0.30, a more recent support level down 20% from current price levels.

Conversely, a breakout above the trendline may result in XRP price rallying toward its 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) near $0.50, up 35% from current price levels, by April 2023.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ripple CEO Warns of Harm to Crypto Industry if SEC Wins Lawsuit Over XRP

March 6, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Crypto Exchange Coinbase Files Amicus Brief to Support Ripple in SEC Lawsuit Over XRP

November 2, 2022 Bitcoin.com

XRP gains 30% after Ripple gets permission to explain ‘fair notice defense’ vs. SEC

February 7, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

The long-timeframe chart is painting a death cross pattern, however, suggesting a selloff ahead.

XRP price rose by nearly 30% in less than a week amid positive sentiment around the court case, in which the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) claims that Ripple sold XRP as illegal securities.

SEC vs. Ripple

Judge Analisa Torres has granted Ripple permission to respond to the SEC's Memorandum of Law in support of Motion to Strike fair notice defense, according to court documents.

Additionally, Judge Torres also ordered to unseal three documents concerning the SEC vs. Ripple case, including Ripple's CEO Brad Garlinghouse's email thread and deposition notice and founder Chris Larsen's email string.

Markets received Judge Torres's orders positively. Soon after they made it to the wire, XRP's price rallied by almost 30%, rising from its Feb. 3's lowest level of $0.058 to as high as $0.782 on Feb. 7.

JUST ADDED to our Documents Library:
✅Order by Judge Torres Granting in Part, and Denying in Part, Motions by Defendants @Ripple @bgarlinghouse @chrislarsensf to seal some exhibits to previous motions, and more (1/3) https://t.co/zubKVutRzE
— CryptoLaw (@CryptoLawUS) February 3, 2022

The upside move picked momentum also as Jeremy Hogan, partner at law firm Hogan & Hogan, noted that the SEC vs. Ripple might be heading toward a verdict.

It's good because we are moving into the second phase of the case where "things" are going to happen.
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) February 3, 2022

XRP "death cross" ahead?

The latest bout of buying in the XRP market also appeared as the token retested its multi-month support trendline, as shown in the chart below.

XRP now faces a resistance confluence ahead in the form of its 20-week (green) and 50-week (red) exponential moving averages (EMAs). Meanwhile, the two moving averages look poised to form a "death cross" should the 20-week EMA cross below the 50-week EMA — a classic sell signal.

Nonetheless, a decisive, high-volumed close above the said EMAs may limit the selloff risks associated with the death cross. Moreover, an extended upside momentum may have XRP price retest its descending trendline resistance near $1.26, a 50% price increase from current levels.

Alexander Mamasidikov, the co-founder of crypto wallet service MinePlex, ignored the downside warnings, asserting that the end to a long-standing court battle between the SEC and Ripple would prove bullish for XRP.

"With the anticipation that the SEC-induced legal battle alleging the status of XRP as security will be settled this year, the current buy ups can be seen as an avenue to stack up at a discount for possible price surge in the longer term," he said, adding:

"Should the current trend be sustained, XRP’s community’s ambitious backing can help push the cryptocurrency to hit a new monthly high of $0.88 per coin."

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ripple Achieves ‘Strongest Year Ever’ Despite SEC Lawsuit Over XRP, Says CEO

December 24, 2021 Bitcoin.com

SEC vs Ripple