Price analysis 3/31: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, DOT, XRP, UNI, THETA, LTC, LINK
Bitcoin’s recovery from its recent lows and the stellar performance from altcoins signal that bulls are confident BTC will retest its all-time high.
Following in the footsteps of Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs has announced plans to allow its wealth management clients to trade in cryptocurrencies and other digital assets. In an interview with CNBC, Mary Rich, the global head of digital assets for Goldman Sachs private wealth management division, said that the rollout may happen sometime in the second quarter of 2021.
Bitcoin adoption by two of the world’s preeminent investment banks is likely to force other banks to walk down the crypto path sooner than later. The arrival of fresh money from the clients of these legacy institutions may further increase demand and boost prices higher.
In response to a question about Bitcoin’s (BTC) future value, Kraken CEO Jesse Powell told Bloomberg that one Bitcoin, which currently buys a Tesla Model 3, will buy a Lamborghini by the end of the year and a Bugatti by 2023.
Another bullish voice was that of Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz who said in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin “is on an inevitable path to having the same market cap and then a higher market cap as gold.”
However, not everyone is bullish on Bitcoin. Boris Schlossberg, the managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, told CNBC said that Bitcoin was “very, very close to perhaps an intermediate-term top here.”
Let’s analyze the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to determine the trend and the path of least resistance.
Bitcoin has been sustaining above the descending channel since breaking out of it on March 29, which is a positive sign. However, the bears have not given up yet as they are aggressively defending the $60,000 level.
The price had turned down from $59,789 today, but an encouraging sign is that the bulls purchased the dip and did not allow the BTC/USDT pair to re-enter the channel. The bulls will now make one more attempt to rise above the all-time high at $61,825.84.
If they succeed, the pair could resume the uptrend and start its northward march toward the first target at $69,279 and then $79,566. The upsloping moving averages suggest the bulls have the upper hand.
However, the relative strength index (RSI) has been showing a negative divergence for the past few days. If the indicator turns down sharply from the downtrend line, it will suggest that the new uptrend may have to wait for a few days.
The bullish view will invalidate if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages. On the contrary, if the RSI rises above the downtrend line, it will indicate that the momentum has picked up, enhancing the prospects of a rally.
Ether (ETH) has been knocking on the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle. A tight consolidation near a resistance increases the possibility of a break above it. The 20-day exponential moving average ($1,743) has turned up and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating advantage to the bulls.
If the buyers can drive the price above the triangle, the ETH/USDT pair could retest the all-time high. If the bulls clear this hurdle, the pair could then start its rally toward the pattern target at $2,618.14.
However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will mount a stiff resistance at $2,040.77. If the price turns down from this overhead resistance but does not re-enter the triangle, then it will suggest that bulls are buying on dips. If that happens, the pair may have a good possibility of breaking above $2,040.77.
On the other hand, if the bulls fail to sustain the price above the triangle, it will suggest that traders are squaring up their positions at higher levels. That could keep the pair range-bound for a few more days. The first sign of weakness will be when the price dips below the trendline.
The bulls are trying to propel Binance Coin (BNB) above $315. Although the price turned down from the overhead resistance today, the long tail on the candlestick suggests the bulls are buying on every minor dip.
Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the bulls can drive the price above $315, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to $348.69.
A breakout and close above the all-time high could start the next leg of the uptrend that could reach $430. This bullish view will invalidate if the price turns down from the current level and plummets below the 20-day EMA ($265).
Cardano (ADA) has been sustaining above the 20-day EMA ($1.16) for the past few days but the bulls have not been able to push the price above $1.30. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. The bears will now try to sink the price below the moving averages.
If they do that, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to the $1.03 support. A break below this support will suggest the start of a deeper correction to $0.80.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA and the bulls push the price above $1.30, the pair could rally to $1.48.
After a minor hesitation near the 20-day EMA ($34.35), Polkadot (DOT) has broken above the moving averages today. This shows strong demand at higher levels. The bulls will now try to push the price above the downtrend line.
If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair could retest the all-time high at $42.28. If the momentum can conquer this resistance, the pair could start the next leg of the uptrend that may reach $53.50.
However, if the price turns down from the downtrend line, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. That could keep the pair range-bound for a few more days. The flat moving averages and the RSI above 58 suggest a minor advantage to the bulls.
XRP once again turned down from near the $0.60 overhead resistance. However, the positive sign is that the bulls have purchased the dip to the 20-day EMA ($0.51) as seen from the long tail on today’s candlestick.
The rising moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory suggest the path of least resistance is to the upside. The bulls are now likely to make one more attempt to push the price above $0.60.
If they succeed, a rally to $0.65 is possible. This level may act as a stiff resistance, but if the bulls can thrust the price above it, the XRP/USDT pair could pick up momentum. This bullish view will invalidate if the price dips below the moving averages.
Uniswap’s (UNI) rebound off the 50-day simple moving average ($27.26) on March 26 has not been able to clear the 20-day EMA ($29.12) hurdle. This shows that the sentiment has changed from buy on dips to sell on rallies.
If the bears now sink the price below the $25.50 support, the UNI/USDT pair could enter a corrective phase that could pull the price down to $20 and then to $18.
The marginally downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a minor advantage to the bears.
This negative view will invalidate if the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA. Such a move could extend the stay of the pair inside the range for a few more days.
THETA turned down from $13.95 on March 29, which indicates the bears are aggressively defending the $14 to $14.96 resistance zone. The bears will now try to sink the altcoin to the 20-day EMA ($10.27).
In an uptrend, the bulls generally buy the dips to the 20-day EMA as it offers an attractive risk to reward ratio. Therefore, if the THETA/USDT pair rebounds off this support with strength, it will suggest the sentiment remains bullish and traders are buying on dips.
That could keep the pair range-bound between $10.35 and $14 for a few more days. On the contrary, if the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest a possible change in sentiment. The pair could then drop to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $8.88.
Litecoin’s (LTC) relief rally seems to have hit a wall at the 50-day SMA ($196) as the bulls have not been able to sustain the price above it. The bears will now try to sink the price to the trendline of the triangle.
If the price rebounds off the trendline, it will indicate that the bulls continue to buy on dips. That could keep the LTC/USDT pair trading inside the triangle for a few more days.
The flat moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand.
This neutral view will invalidate after the price either breaks above or below the triangle. That could signal the possible start of a trending move.
Chainlink (LINK) broke above the 20-day EMA ($27.79) on March 29 and 30 but could not climb the 50-day SMA ($29). Although the price turned down today, the bulls bought the dip as seen from the long tail on the candlestick.
The bulls may now make one more attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they manage to do that, the LINK/USDT pair could rise to $32. A break above this resistance will suggest advantage to the bulls.
On the contrary, if the price again turns down from the 50-day SMA, then a drop to $24 is likely. This is an important support to keep an eye on because if it cracks, the pair will complete a descending triangle pattern, which could signal a possible trend reversal. Such a move could open the doors for a decline to $14.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
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Author: Rakesh Upadhyay